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#16 Bungster

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 05:47 PM

Carl Swenlin has a post over on Financial Sense site.

Because of this, we should be alert to the possibility that the expected retest will actually be another down leg to much lower lows.


http://www.financial.../2007/0817.html
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
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#17 crazy_ate

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 05:48 PM

Oh, sweet irony.

That smug blowed-up hedgie John Devaney (the guy with the "Positive Carry" yacht) is in big-time liquidation mode. Now he's having to dump his own personal helicopter due to "changing corporate travel requirements." :)

Maybe he can sell it to HeliBen who might need to add to his fleet as things unfold.

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Fantastic....I am following this guy's success/failure.....and links? Incidentally, remember that this guy earned his "risk chops" after college by takin g everyyhing he had and could borrow ($250,000) bet it on options (put or call, not sure) in one company and lost it all.

History is about to repeat.....let's see how long that piece of ass wife of his stays around once he goes bankrupt......DOUCHE!

#18 K Wave Rider

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 05:48 PM

This potential scenario still on track after today...anyone out there surprised by the big up day today? ;)

I would expect choppy action over the next few weeks...Doc's very short term cycles should be money makers in that environment. But if we do hit that apex in a week or two, it may time to just sell and hold fur a bit.

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#19 Bungster

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 05:51 PM

I'm starting to see why some of the smarter traders on this site trade price and not indicators. The indicators have been showing that this might be a good time to buy but the price action has been minimal... at least with respect to some of the technical indicators. In short I would have expected price to have fallen much more given the current state of some indicators. I'm starting to agree with you price trading smart fellers... ;)
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#20 crazy_ate

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 05:51 PM

John ‘Big Idiot’ Devaney Sells Yacht as Subprime Losses Hit Hedge Fund
Posted by Bill Bonner on Aug 1st, 2007
We start today on a sad note.

Posted Image

Mr. John Devaney is an idiot. But without idiots, the graveyards and barrooms would be empty; and then, what kind of a world would it be? Thank god for them all.

And so, we sympathise when an idiot runs into trouble…fully aware that we could be the next ones to do so!

Poor Mr. Devaney is selling his 142-foot yacht for $23.5 million. But that is not the source of the discomfort. There are only two happy moments in a boat-owner’s life, or so it is said - the day he buys his boat…and the day he sells it. So, may Mr. Devaney will probably enjoy getting rid of the thing.

We don’t know exactly what went wrong with poor Mr. Devaney. Sounds like he was a bigger idiot than most; he seems to have invested in his own preposterous fund. Word is, he’s put his house in Aspen up for sale too. For only $16.25 million, all 16,000 square feet of it can be yours.

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#21 K Wave Rider

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:01 PM

This is pretty much really the only thing you need to watch for clues at this point...

BKX just bounced off a MAJOR support area on the daily chart, and the markets WILL NOT crash unless BKX takes out that low, and if it does take out that major support...why, thats when crashes happen, don't they?

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#22 K Wave Rider

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:03 PM

And here is the monthly look...out of momo with both MACDs in divergent rollover mode...

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#23 K Wave Rider

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:06 PM

And here is the weekly look...that rolling over cyan 72 week MA should contain the upside, if the crash scenario is on.

We DO NOT want to see new highs on the BKX now, or it would have implications that would not sit too well with this board....

Good news is that the range is fairly tight here, and the big decision should be made within a matter of a few weeks.

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#24 LeeWhee

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:43 PM

Carl Swenlin has a post over on Financial Sense site.

Because of this, we should be alert to the possibility that the expected retest will actually be another down leg to much lower lows.


http://www.financial.../2007/0817.html

View Post


I heart Carl Swenlin.
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor™."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#25 beardrech

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:48 PM

John ‘Big Idiot’ Devaney Sells Yacht as Subprime Losses Hit Hedge Fund
Posted by Bill Bonner on Aug 1st, 2007
We start today on a sad note.

Posted Image

Mr. John Devaney is an idiot. But without idiots, the graveyards and barrooms would be empty; and then, what kind of a world would it be? Thank god for them all.

And so, we sympathise when an idiot runs into trouble…fully aware that we could be the next ones to do so!

Poor Mr. Devaney is selling his 142-foot yacht for $23.5 million. But that is not the source of the discomfort. There are only two happy moments in a boat-owner’s life, or so it is said - the day he buys his boat…and the day he sells it. So, may Mr. Devaney will probably enjoy getting rid of the thing.

We don’t know exactly what went wrong with poor Mr. Devaney. Sounds like he was a bigger idiot than most; he seems to have invested in his own preposterous fund. Word is, he’s put his house in Aspen up for sale too. For only $16.25 million, all 16,000 square feet of it can be yours.

Full Article

View Post


About a week ago Dok posted a list of books published over the past twenty years which was entirely devoted to the way cheat street crooks operate.

If you even read only two or three of them you'll never again have to be persuaded about avoiding fundamentals.

Putz Devaney, with his 24 million dollar yacht and his helocopter and multi-million dollar home is ample warning as An anecdote confirming the above , but in miniature, it goes as follows: A would-be investor enters the office of a venture-capital seeking entrepeneuer...

He immediately spies a rather impressive looking ashtray on VC's desk; he then compliments VC on its beauty and impertinently asks how much did vC pay for it.

"You lke it "?, asks VC , and goes on to mention a high price...

Later on when the would-be investor was asked why he departed so abruptly, He answered: If hes got the balls to purchase items like that for the price he quoted, and then has the gaul to ask me for big dough, he can go ****** himself.

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: Twenty or thirty years ago There was a guy who advertised his brokerage while flying in his helocopter... I turned to my son nightly and said remember that man--Very shortly he wll be indicted for some financial crime... He was...

#26 mdporter

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:50 PM

A bunch of banks have had their FHA status pulled. This means that they can no longer make FHA loans.

DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

[Docket No. FR-5157-N-02]


Mortgagee Review Board Administrative Actions Termination of
Lender Approval for Renewal Noncompliance

AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary for Housing-Federal Housing
Commissioner, HUD.

ACTION: Notice.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: In compliance with section 202© of the National Housing Act,
and 24 CFR 25.10, this notice advises of the cause and description of
certain administrative actions taken by HUD's Mortgagee Review Board
(MRB) against HUD-approved mortgagees. The MRB terminated 123 Title I
and Title II lender approvals during the six month period ending March
31, 2007, for failure to submit an acceptable annual audited financial
statement and/or payment of the annual fee required to renew their FHA
lender approval.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Joy Hadley, Director, Office of Lender
Activities and Program Compliance, 451 Seventh Street, SW., Room B-133-
P3214, Washington, DC 20410-8000, telephone: (202) 708-1515. (This is
not a toll-free number.) A Telecommunications Device for Hearing- and
Speech-Impaired Individuals (TTY) is available at (800) 877-8339
(Federal Information Relay Service).

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Section 202©(5) of the National Housing
Act (added by section 142 of the Department of Housing and Urban
Development Reform Act of 1989, Pub. L. 101-235, approved December 15,
1989), and 23 CFR 25.10 requires that HUD publish a description of and
the cause for administrative actions against a HUD-approved mortgagee
by the Department's Mortgagee Review Board. The MRB terminated 123
Title I and Title II lender approvals during the six

[[Page 45259]]

month period ending March 31, 2007, for failure to submit an acceptable
annual audited financial statement and/or payment of the annual fee
required to renew their FHA lender approval.

ACTION: Termination of HUD/FHA Title I and Title II lender approval.

CAUSE: Failure to submit an acceptable annual audited financial
statement and/or payment of the annual fee required to renew their FHA
lender approval.


Click for full list.

48 of the banks listed are in California. There were about 122 banks on the list.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#27 MrHanky

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:50 PM

as for me,im done trading and staying with cds for good.got whipsawed hard and lost some bucks this week.made a decent profit on my wynn this am that i bought it at the close yesterday.the cef i held bounced 7% after i sold it,very thinly traded and i got beat up.

just gonna take advantage of the cd deals that have emerged in the last week and sleep tight with my 5.60% average yield(some now at 6%)

i get too stressed when i trade,its not worth it when i already saved enough to retire now if i want.uggh.....

i wish i could hold the wynn shares,really believe in the company and its growth prospects,i just dont trust the markets......

Nothing


#28 mdporter

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 06:57 PM

If countrywide has been making alot of neg-am loans they are going to have another issue. Most of the neg-am loaning banks have been booking the interest payments they haven't received yet has income now, instead of when they are actually getting the money.

This means that if the neg-am loans fail then they will have to restate earnings. No doubt that will add up to a few more billion in losses.

We still have four more years of mortgage resets to go. Those resets have barely gotten started!

I haven't once heard this year's Credit Suisse report on resets mentioned in the mainstream media. Guess it is just too scary to contemplate.

I've already read a few articles in California papers on how the mortgage market has seized up.

some friends of mine told me to buy a house today. They have no idea of what is happening behind the scenes. None of them could afford their homes or condos at today's prices, and with today's credit requirements and loan restrictions.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#29 LeeWhee

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 07:06 PM

This is pretty much really the only thing you need to watch for clues at this point...

BKX just bounced off a MAJOR support area on the daily chart, and the markets WILL NOT crash unless BKX takes out that low, and if it does take out that major support...why, thats when crashes happen, don't they?

View Post


We don't need a crash to get lower lows.

The BKX has plenty of "room" to go lower without crashing.

The low so far was exactly par (100). Nice round numbah. Now it's 10% higher. That move down from 121 to 100 completes the 17.5% breakdown from the trendline off the early 2006 low. If it goes lower, it enters the chop suey from the 2004-2005 trading range b/w 93-103ish.

So there's lot of "support" not far below.

Even if the BKX simply goes back to re-test 100, that's 10% lower. It may well be that if the market has another leg to go, the banksters may simply decline with the market as opposing to outperforming on the downside as they have thus far.

A 10% move lower in the SPX puts it right at 1300, close to my next downside target of 1310-1315.

Note that the banksters were the first group to bottom in 2000. They broke down well ahead of the market and actually made an important bottom in the first leg down in Mar/Apr. That low held up for two years while the rest of the market tanked. It was finally undercut (only slightly) in July 2002 when the banks once again bottomed ahead of the broads.

We saw this in 2004 as well when the banksters bottomed in May while the market as a whole bottomed in August.

So even if the banksters have made a low at 100, it doesn't mean the market won't go lower. The finagler group has a recent history of making the first bottom. Maybe it's happening again.

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  • Picture_33.png
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"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor™."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#30 Hausbare

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Posted 17 August 2007 - 07:16 PM

If countrywide has been making alot of neg-am loans they are going to have another issue. Most of the neg-am loaning banks have been booking the interest payments they haven't received yet has income now, instead of when they are actually getting the money.

This means that if the neg-am loans fail then they will have to restate earnings. No doubt that will add up to a few more billion in losses.

We still have four more years of mortgage resets to go. Those resets have barely gotten started!

I haven't once heard this year's Credit Suisse report on resets mentioned in the mainstream media. Guess it is just too scary to contemplate.

I've already read a few articles in California papers on how the mortgage market has seized up.

some friends of mine told me to buy a house today. They have no idea of what is happening behind the scenes. None of them could afford their homes or condos at today's prices, and with today's credit requirements and loan restrictions.

View Post



Do you think the FED cut today will have a significant effect on the coming $Trillion + in resets? Or do you think with the relief some "on the edge" lending institutions are getting, they'll be ultra conservative on their lending practices going forward?

BTW, Downey Financial (DSL) which I'm short, has something like 80 or 85% of their portfolio stuffed with California neg-am loans! I don't see how they'll survive.

Also, do you think the FED action could provide relief for the home builders.
I don't see how they have any way out. :huh:





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