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Another Sleepy Summer Friday


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#61 Slappy

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 09:24 PM

I had a client who was having $20k cash bail posted for her this week by a bondsman. The bondsman received a $20k cashier's check and took it to his bank on Monday to get cash to take to the jail. His bank, Wells Fargo, I think, told him to come back on Wednesday for the cash. Don't know if this is unusual.

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If he was asking for hard greenbacks this is because most banks keep $5k or less on hand. I have read numerous tales of people attempting to get a few thousand and having the bank refuse. Under pressure the bank admits that they don't have enough on hand to satisfy the request.

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We bank at a credit union that is smaller than most financial institutions. A few years ago my wife went in with a company check to get something like $1200 cash to set up a couple cash drawers for an event and was refused.

The people at her work spent the day working up an add campaign for our bank. It went something like this :

"If you need a coke, see us about a low rate loan. If you want to upsize your Happy Meal, we're your bank!"

#62 martialcomp

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 09:27 PM

I was on a business trip this week but bought QLD at 92.11 on Monday morning with a stop at 91.70.

It went on a business trip and tried to watch some TV at night in the hotel room.

I didn't take my laptop with me...bad mistake. I couldn't move my stops up.

By the time I got back, the stop loss had been hit. Frustrating doesn't even describe how I felt today.

Well, what will happen next week?

My take is that the market is extremely week and has a shortage of liquidity. Usually, the market rallies some after ending a day at the low (Thursday). Everyone saw how weak the market was, it couldn't even rally with the FOMC throwing in 38 billion.

My take is that we should rally on Monday (gulp...crossing my fingers on this one).

Next week is options expiration week. Normally, one would expect the market to move the opposite direction in Opex scam week so that everyone's options expire worthless but the last 3 weeks have seen tremendous volatility so I am not as sure as I would normally be about that.

So, I will be watching 1488-1490 on the S&P, if we bust through there, I think 1497 is the next stop. If we bust through there, I think 1520 is the next stop.

Now, the trend seems to be lower highs so that 1488-1490 is critical.

Tech is still showing relative strength but it is over shadowed by the unwinding of the Yen carry trade and the seizing of the secondary mortgage market.

If i was forced to put out a wild ass guess, I would say we go to ~1488 and then swoon down to 1388 area on the S&P the following week.

After that, we could rally again with tech leading the way, or we could out and out crash.

What happened today was an extremely ominous sign for the markets. Liquidity just seems to be drying up.

#63 FauxCaster

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 10:16 PM

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"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)

"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).

It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)

Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years [2007] ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)

#64 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 10:41 PM

I was on a business trip this week but bought QLD at 92.11 on Monday morning with a stop at 91.70.

It went on a business trip and tried to watch some TV at night in the hotel room.

I didn't take my laptop with me...bad mistake. I couldn't move my stops up.

By the time I got back, the stop loss had been hit. Frustrating doesn't even describe how I felt today.

Well, what will happen next week?

My take is that the market is extremely week and has a shortage of liquidity. Usually, the market rallies some after ending a day at the low (Thursday). Everyone saw how weak the market was, it couldn't even rally with the FOMC throwing in 38 billion.

My take is that we should rally on Monday (gulp...crossing my fingers on this one).

Next week is options expiration week. Normally, one would expect the market to move the opposite direction in Opex scam week so that everyone's options expire worthless but the last 3 weeks have seen tremendous volatility so I am not as sure as I would normally be about that.

So, I will be watching 1488-1490 on the S&P, if we bust through there, I think 1497 is the next stop. If we bust through there, I think 1520 is the next stop.

Now, the trend seems to be lower highs so that 1488-1490 is critical.

Tech is still showing relative strength but it is over shadowed by the unwinding of the Yen carry trade and the seizing of the secondary mortgage market.

If i was forced to put out a wild ass guess, I would say we go to ~1488 and then swoon down to 1388 area on the S&P the following week.

After that, we could rally again with tech leading the way, or we could out and out crash.

What happened today was an extremely ominous sign for the markets. Liquidity just seems to be drying up.

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Opex is going to be wild. If this keeps up next week, we might be looking at 200-500% intraday moves on those August options.
Stop the Madness

#65 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 10:46 PM

They are not making it easy.

a'nudder Nipple Bottom

Commodities and techs are still outperforming, giving the bools the edge for now.

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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#66 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 10:48 PM

Getting pretty crazy....

How high can it go?

How low can it go?

I guess these trends are going to see a violent reversal soon.

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#67 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 10:49 PM

New all time life time high this week for CME.
Futures volume must have exploded into the moon the last 3 weeks.
So if the market crashes, this should go up due to increase in shares traded???

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Stop the Madness

#68 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 10:51 PM

Looks like some quant funds were short this thing.....

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#69 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 10:58 PM

Amazing how message board activity picks up when stocks are going down, and yet there is no excitement or action when stocks are going up.

Over at the Clearstation QQQQ Board, all my old bear market buddies from 2000 - 2002 are back.

This board was pretty much vacant for the last year or so. Now the diehard posters are all back, and posting volume has exploded back up.

Even our old friend Buddhadropping is posting again.


Hello bman. I suspect they will pull out alot of stops to pack this inflated brazzier with some repo money and get it back up into close. Too much at stake and clearly the PigMen are frightened about the house of cards. I would also be looking for a geopolitical event coming soon to a theatre near you. Cheney is well in control and masterfully executing what it is he wants. The democrats are all pussies and have surrendered the field. Cheney wins and I doubt he likes the idea of Iranian petrol being traded in Euros if you know what I mean.


At the gym, I cannot even turn on Crapvision anymore. People absolutely hate the stock market, and jeer at me any time I try to change the channel on one of the TV's. Now I have to watch the lame CNN ticker instead.
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#70 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 11:02 PM

Amazing how strong the tech stocks have been.

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#71 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 11:05 PM

IRF may be turning up off the lows.

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Some quant fund probably blew up on NVLS. Now watch it go up just as fast as it came down.

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My girlfriend loves Starbucks. She's been bugging me about that stock.

Watching it close to see if it busts out.

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#72 wndysrf

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 11:10 PM

No doubt, many HedgeFunds are blowing up trying to trade these school stocks.

"Hey, which one is a short? Which one is a long?"

"Hell if I know!!!"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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#73 Slappy

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 11:51 PM

Well, looks like we have the schlockh market all figured out. Let's talk about Back-to-school supplies...

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#74 patents

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Posted 10 August 2007 - 11:58 PM

Getting pretty crazy....

How high can it go?

How low can it go?

I guess these trends are going to see a violent reversal soon.

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My two cents worth after having observed your comments about the put/call ratio for months:

I sense that puts are being sold into the market in a price insensitive way to move the cash market up in the very same manner that futures are being bought in a price insensitive way to drive up the cash market.

The theory and effect are the same.

Comparing the P/C from today to that 5 or 10 years ago is like comparing CPI rates today to 5 years ago while the underlying information is being adjusted for "hedonistic" changes.

#75 Whadda I Do Whadda I Do

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Posted 11 August 2007 - 12:01 AM

Homeland Security demands banks report transactions totaling $10,000 and over in a 24 hour period, lesser amount are voluntarily reported by the banks.

Go ahead, void the warranty...






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