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Market Nails The Targets


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#1 DrStool

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 03:47 PM

Both mine and LeeWhee's. My short term targets anyway. As for the 6 month cycle, and the context, time will tell.

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#2 Jetlag

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:14 PM

Last chinese bear has left the building:



#3 mdporter

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:23 PM

GG showing signs of life

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The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

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#4 mdporter

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:24 PM

TRE

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The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#5 mmoy

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:25 PM

Intelligent people who are secure in their beliefs do not have to pound tables.  In fact, the self assured trader could care less what others think.

Table pounding is the hallmark of the insecure propagandist. Hitler did a lot of pounding on tables. So did Mussolini and Khruschev.  So do Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow.  Those who are full of bullshit tend to do a lot of shouting and table pounding. They are propagandists, interested only in the futile attempt to enhance their own feelings of inadequacy by calling attention to themselves in the most obnoxious ways.

Inevitably people like this build up a coterie of wannabe admirers and have a brief period of apparently spectacular success before ending up on the dung heap because their ideas have no substance. So beware of whom you envy and want to emulate.

For my part, I will reserve my respect for those who speak softly and carry the big stick of thoughtfulness, intellectual rigor, and intelligent discourse.

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Edit: I vaguely remember you using the term Pounding the Table last year. Perhaps in May or June after the commodities got whacked. You were talking about some aspect of liquidity for several months leading up to that. The search function on this board is broken right now so I couldn't check on it. I could be wrong of course.

My memory was a little off:

DrStool Aug 9 2006, 09:57 AM

Anyone remember one of my first podcasts from way back in January when
I was pounding the table about that horseshit article on TOL in
Barrons? A classic! If anyone would like to hear it again, let me know
and I will repost it at http://www.streetiq....ITALSTOOL.shtml

DrStool Jul 28 2006, 10:16 AM

When the AOL TWX merger was announced way back when, I called it the
worst corporate deal in history. I was pounding the table hysterically
about it. I really thought it would cause TWX to go bankrupt. I was
wrong about that. Their real businesses produce too much cash flow I
guess.

#6 shorty

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:31 PM

Gimme my money, I wanna git out!

$300 Million Liar Loan Fund Liquidation

Heavy redemptions from investors concerned about their holdings of subprime mrotgouge securities claimed Braddock Financial Corp.'s Galena Street Fund as the latest hedge fund victim.

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#7 Private Skidmark

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:38 PM

This is one of those rare days where it feels wonderful to be a raving gold kook. I will cherish it forever. ;)
The highest compliment you can pay a man today is that hes a fairly convincing approximation of a real person.

"You trade physical gold with balls, not with a ruler, until your balls get pressed into ball oil and you're forced to obtain your meals from the dumpster behind the local Krispy Kreme. And then the sun comes out again." - Skidmark

"If you can't stand the heat, break the thermometer in the kitchen." - Benjamin S. Bernanke upon ceasing publication of M3 data

#8 elh

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:41 PM

I was looking at the 2000 highs on the Spooz, and noticed it topped at 1530. Our more recent high was at 1540. Does that delta of 10 matter?

#9 Sudaca

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:45 PM

Interesting bullish engulfing weekly candle on the 10yr yield

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Thanks, David

#10 realist

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:48 PM

This is one of those rare days where it feels wonderful to be a raving gold kook. I will cherish it forever.  ;)

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For the Next 8 Months...

Leverage means everything...

3/31/08 is my day...

#11 Private Skidmark

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:50 PM

This is one of those rare days where it feels wonderful to be a raving gold kook. I will cherish it forever. ;)

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For the Next 8 Months...

Leverage means everything...

3/31/08 is my day...

View Post


To sell?

I see dead shorts. B)
The highest compliment you can pay a man today is that hes a fairly convincing approximation of a real person.

"You trade physical gold with balls, not with a ruler, until your balls get pressed into ball oil and you're forced to obtain your meals from the dumpster behind the local Krispy Kreme. And then the sun comes out again." - Skidmark

"If you can't stand the heat, break the thermometer in the kitchen." - Benjamin S. Bernanke upon ceasing publication of M3 data

#12 Sudaca

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:52 PM

Even more interesting is that the bullish engulfing candle on TNX came right at the re-test of the broken long-term downtrend line...

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Thanks, David

#13 DrStool

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:53 PM

mmoy-

I was young and immature. :).

In both cases I was trying to attract attention to a new service that I was trying to market. I hate marketing, and doing what I did made me extremely uncomfortable. I hate calling attention to my calls. I'm a lousy marketer, because it makes me very uncomfortable to tout my own work. If you compare the WSE Pro to those of other newsletter writers, I think I do relatively little "table pounding" so to speak. I've been taught that you have to do it. Well, I tried it, I didn't like it, and it didn't work anyway.

You will note that in the second example I plainly stated that I was wrong in my opinion. I ate crow. And I doubt that anyone subscribed to the Professional Edition because I pounded the table about the homebuilders.

So I stand completely by the feelings I expressed. What I did with my own "table pounding" was out of character, and it made me terribly uncomfortable.

On the whole, I've done a good job, I think, and that's all the table pounding I'm willing to do. I see my job as trying to help people understand and think clearly about the markets.

When people are "right for the wrong reasons" that's luck, and eventually it will fail them. When people are right for good reasons, but are expressing other reasons that are illogical and have no basis in fact, that's just confused thinking, and it can be misleading to inexperienced readers. As the proprietor of this business I have an obligation to point that out when I see it. If someone persists in behaving in a certain way after the error has been explained, then there's a problem there.

I also find it not helpful when people call attention to their victories after the fact, without explaining how we can learn or profit from the experience. It seems that we hear most from these people on up days, but very little on down days. It's especially notable when someone does that after criticizing others for doing it.

Anyway, I'm not perfect, and neither is anybody else on this board. So, we live and let live and do the best we can to make this board the best it can be, and hope that in the end, integrity and intellectual honesty will carry the day.

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#14 LeeWhee

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 04:57 PM

Here's some more color on current gold sentiment from Mark Hulbert of MarketRetch. He's one of the few guys who tracks this stuff without obvious bias and he's been doing it a long time.

A month ago, Hulbert reports that there was a "disturbingly high degree of bullishness" among gold timing newsletters. He says that his HGNSI (Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Indicator) was at 64%, which reflects the average recommended exposure to the gold market among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

As of this week, that figure was at 0%. So, on average, these short-timers have no exposure to the gold market whatsoever.

Sounds molto bullish. But wait, there's more.......

The problem: the HGNSI hasn't fallen "as much as one might otherwise have expected, given how frustrating gold's action has been. The current HGNSI level is still markedly above its record low reading, which is minus 31.3%. It's not even as low as it was on five other occasions over the last 12 months."

I don't know how big a sample size Hulbert uses or how useful his indicator has been over the years in catching moves in the goldies. But his assessment of the current setup makes sense to me. Sounds like the gold-timers were caught unawares this week, largely thanks to the "well-timed" ;) NEM hedge announcement that no doubt was known to many well in advance.

The notion that "sentiment is the worst it's ever been for gold" is simply untrue. It isn't even as bad as it's been many other times earlier this year. And certainly nowhere as pessimistic as it has been after previous heart-stopping selloffs over the past three years.

However, the time was ripe for a goldblast and we've gotten one. Whether it amounts to anything more than the usual ramp and dump remains to be seen. The current setup is surely not one of those "blood in the streets" buys. More like a "piddle in the pants" buy.

Hulbert adds:

"Prospects for a meaningful gold rally are far better now than they were a month ago. But not good enough to justify throwing caution to the wind. We're not seeing anything like excessive levels of bearishness."

"It will be crucial to see how the gold timers react after gold rallies, whenever that begins to happen in earnest. If gold timers on balance remain cautious and skeptical, then the rally is likely to continue. But if the gold timers rush to jump on the bullish bandwagon, as they did in the days preceding my June 6 column, then contrarian analysis will have to conclude that the rally is yet another in a frustrating series of false starts."

Sounds about right. I'd also throw in: watch XAU 155-157. That's where all the bodies are buried dating back to 1987.

Will be interesting to see how gold schtunks react to this week's frivolities. If early returns are any indication, looks like goldbuggers are already spewing their juices and ready to jump the bones of any and every low-grade shiner on the bourses. But time will tell.

Disclosure: Long GSS, SLW, HL, GDX, NEM. Of these, NEM and GDX are s/t.

http://custom.market.....9CEC6D18E9C9}
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

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"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

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"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#15 LeeWhee

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Posted 06 July 2007 - 05:02 PM

This is one of those rare days where it feels wonderful to be a raving gold kook. I will cherish it forever. ;)

View Post


For the Next 8 Months...

Leverage means everything...

3/31/08 is my day...

View Post


Strikes me that leverage has meant everything for the past four years.

What makes the next nine months any different?
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782





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