277 replies to this topic
Posted 30 June 2007 - 12:55 AM
I am so sorry that I did not look for this before. Just a creature of habit and only look at IDS and M2M, thank you for keeping this up as I will start checking at the end of each week.
Posted 30 June 2007 - 08:34 AM
nice charts, i will have to watch this. i look at some of the public charts at stock charts . com. i love TA because it takes all the emotion out of trading and investing. emotions are a killer in trading.
Posted 30 June 2007 - 08:39 AM
abby colon - there was this old article in a traders magazine that spoke about negative divergance being " positive " in a bull market. those were areas of consolidation. so i tend to not think of them as that bad as long as " price " is behaving. becasue as traders we care about price, i cant sell or buy macd or RSI, i do use them though.
maybe i can find it for you. it was online.
Posted 06 July 2007 - 10:59 PM
Well that was certainly the case this week....up another 2.8%. Nice move, especially in a leveraged vehicle such as QLD or Rydex's RYVYX. (up well over 5% for the week)
Weekly still pointing to the bull favor. Except for that divergence in the MACD histogram, it looks like all systems go. That alone should keep us on alert for some give back in the coming weeks, but until it changes its momentum in a different direction, we shall continue to look for buying opps on pullbacks.
Posted 06 July 2007 - 11:25 PM
Good time to take profits on the CMO 3-day swing trade. Note the low volume on the last push up....some of it due to the holiday week, but none the less its still low volume that should keep us on guard. It may drift up more from here, but its time to book some profits on this run and look to re-enter on the next pullback below -50 on the 3-day.
Posted 06 July 2007 - 11:28 PM
Posted 07 July 2007 - 07:50 AM
Just a reminder: Anyone visiting this thread for the first time should look over the first page or two for the overall methods I am using here.
It is basic chart stuff with ideas cultivated from Dr. B. and one of my favorites, Dr. Alexander Elder....and of course, Doc himself.
Mainly designed for swing trades of a few days to several weeks with less regard for the tick by tick daily volatility.
Posted 13 July 2007 - 11:00 PM
Tack on another stellar week for the bulls! Weekly still points to the bullish side as the indexes push higher. The DOW looks to have 14K in its sights. Sounds all bullish...maybe a tad too much bullishness, but now is not the time to try and call a top...we will let the markets do that for us. One thing to be concerned about might be the divergence in the Stochastics (Sto).....looks a lot like Nov-Dec of last year. The Sto is making a more shallow high than the NDX is. We had a pullback in late Dec. after a similar divergence.
Posted 13 July 2007 - 11:13 PM
Big up week for the Q's. Some of it may have been due to next weeks OPEX on Friday. We usually get a crazy day of trading the week before OPEX and this past week was no exception. Of concern here is the lack of volume. Volume typically lags during the summer months, but hitting new multi-year highs on the idicies one would think there would be more participation. Crapvision had their people calling it a "new bull market". In the past, new bull markets started with high volume and they did not start with fresh new highs....but maybe its just the new paradigm.
Daily CMO-3 day never hit the -50 target. No need to chase here, we will get a decent entry in due time unless we have a repeat of Dec. '99.
Posted 13 July 2007 - 11:20 PM
Sox Update: Getting closer to the target....the Sox are still on a tear, but did not participate in Friday's rally. Looks like a wedge building...possibly signaling a pullback of sorts...we shall see.
Posted 20 July 2007 - 10:58 PM
Not much reward for the bulls this week....certainly not worth the roller coaster ride for a measly .18%. Still in bull mode on the weekly. ST MACD showing signs of stalling out, but other than that its bullish. We are in one of those periods where bad news is good and good news is great....have to respect it for what it is.
Posted 20 July 2007 - 11:09 PM
Staying on the sidelines and not chasing was not such a bad idea this past week. Unless your day-trading, it was a tough week for the mid-term swing trades.
CMO 3-day looks like it wants to come to us (-50 or below)....so we shall wait. Unless it truly is a blow-off run, we should see it soon. I don't have data for the CMO from the '99-2000 era, so we will stick with the parameters that have worked well for the past few years. If we do get into a mania type run, then we may have to tweak the indicators. But for now, we will just wait.
Looks like the CMO 12-day is starting to roll over.
Note: I will probably not be posting an update next week, but should resume the following week.
Posted 20 July 2007 - 11:16 PM
Although down on Friday with the rest of the market, the SOX was up for the week. Possible small bull flag developing. The SOX like to hang around its 20 day MA. Its gotten ahead of itself lately. Look for it to touch the 20-day in the near future.
Posted 04 August 2007 - 09:14 AM
Back from vacation...looks like I missed a ton of volatility.
Heres the weekly view:
Just another correction? Or the start of a new bear market?
Our main indicator here (the 26 week ma) is still pointing up so we have to respect it.
The STO is still above its bull/bear line of 50, but looks like it wants to at least touch it.
Note the ST MACD histo: in previous declines during this bull run it stalled out at the -50 line. This may be the one to watch this coming week.
The long term MACD looks ready for a crossover, although the histo is still positive.
Yet once again we have to continue to play it as a bull market using the daily charts for entries/exits.
Posted 04 August 2007 - 09:32 AM
Always comes back at some point. Note the CMO 12-day bumped along the -50 the same as in early March. We will find out if it will repeat. The 3-day CMO flagged a buy only to be stopped out. A new buy signal was given with a stop just below the low at 47. This remains active.
Note the 11/34 ma cross is extremely close ...last crossover was late March. Also note the volume drying up to the downside...longs weren't as eager to bail on Fridays dive...that could all change with a Black Monday type of day, but stops are set and ready to keep any loss at a minimum...
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