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Weekly Signals


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#76 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 02 June 2007 - 01:15 PM

The Sox need to lead the way if we are to head higher, and right now it suggests the opposite or sideways at best.

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Tried to break back above the 492 area on Friday only to be turned back.

We will have to keep a close eye on it.

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#77 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 08 June 2007 - 11:28 PM

All in all, we have to respect the power of the bulls and trade with them. With the caution signals its not a time to blindly jump in.....and of course we need to use tight stops and sound money management.

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A roller coaster week but in the end the index was down a tad over 1%.
Note the ST MACD has had an indicator line crossover but just slightly. LT MACD histo is declining but still above the zero bull range. Stochastics broke the 80 line...looks like it could go to the 50 line in time but it too is still in the bull range.
Most importantly is the 26 week ma that says trade from the long side even if just for a quick scalp using the daily charts for entry/exits.
Message boards are full of members that are calling for a top. A wise trader once told me "as long as people are screaming that a top is in....it probably isn't." I don't know if that is the case here or not, but we shall find out in due time.

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#78 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 08 June 2007 - 11:43 PM

A look at the daily Q's chart.

Lots to look at here.

Note the CMO 12-day has turned into the red "bear" zone.

CMO 3-day hit 100 for several days before plummeting.
If following the system, buying the bounce of below -50 and either a sell at readings of 100 or raising the stops daily (1 tick below the previous days low) would have resulted in decent gains.

Note the 11/34 ma cross is still on the bullish side.

Volume picked up on the selling this past week.

Still, have to play it from the long side and keep an eye on the 12-day CMO for possibly more weakness. Bounces off -50 on the 3-day can be played here but with tight stops.

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#79 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 08 June 2007 - 11:50 PM

Sox update...getting in pretty tight range here.

I still say the semi's lead the markets as shown with their strength on Friday.

Leavitt Bros. claim its the Broker/Dealers to watch for leadership, not the Semis.
They say GS among others telegraphed the move in late Feb. and this past week. They do make a good point. See the link below.
Noname.jpg
They are calling a top in their latest: http://www.screencas...fc-e382a2943b59

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#80 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 10 June 2007 - 10:35 AM

CBOE Put/Call Ratio.

Watching the blue line for a crossover....would be bearish.

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Got the crossover.... a bearish sign. Possibly a change in trend coming or it could fall back below here too so its not a done deal..Need to keep an eye on it and trade cautiously.

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#81 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 15 June 2007 - 11:43 PM

Most importantly is the 26 week ma that says trade from the long side even if just for a quick scalp using the daily charts for entry/exits.

Another decent week for the bull move....1.90%.
ST MACD turned back up. The Stochastic slid earlier in the week, but it also managed to turn back up.
Divergences with price and the indicators keep showing up so caution must still be exercised.
It may look like a top...smell like a top and even taste like a top is in but until we get signals on the weekly that say otherwise...its just not worth trying to pick an absolute top.

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#82 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 15 June 2007 - 11:59 PM

Daily chart:
CMO 3-day hits 100 again for another good entry/exit signal. Now its time to let the market return to -50 or below and wait for a new buy signal if one is to be given.

Notice the divergence in the 12-day. The Index keeps putting in higher highs, but the CMO puts in lower highs. Not a good sign. :o

Note the volume on the down moves far exceeds the volume on the up moves. The bulls are not quite as eager to buy at these higher levels...another caution sign.

Also note the candlestick pattern that was made during Friday's session. The Doji....painting a picture of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

Still, have to play it from the long side and keep an eye on the 12-day CMO for possibly more weakness.

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#83 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 16 June 2007 - 12:05 AM

Sox tries another time on the break point. If the pattern hold true, it would project to 540ish or so. Fool me once......

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#84 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 23 June 2007 - 07:51 AM

Divergences with price and the indicators keep showing up so caution must still be exercised.

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Dismal week for the bull. Another roller coaster with an end result of -1.05%.
Divergences still in place...also, the short term MACD Histo turned negative.
Once again, most importantly is the 26 week ma that says trade from the long side even if just for a quick scalp using the daily charts for entry/exits.

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#85 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 23 June 2007 - 08:04 AM

Note the volume on the down moves far exceeds the volume on the up moves. The bulls are not quite as eager to buy at these higher levels...another caution sign.

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Volume on the down days is still out pacing the volume on the up days, a sign of distribution.
Tight stops are in order when buying the CMO 3-day break above -50 from below. As a rule of thumb, placing a stop one tick below the previous days low should keep any losses to a minimum. Such would be the case now..as the CMO broke -50 only to pull back on Friday. If it takes out Thursday's low you would be stopped out and would look to re-enter as long as the weekly points us to long trades.
The divergence in the 12-day CMO is still showing up. The 11/34 ma cross is still pointing to the bull move.

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#86 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 23 June 2007 - 08:11 AM

Sox tries another time on the break point. If the pattern hold true, it would project to 540ish or so. Fool me once......

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The Sox actually moved up a tad this week (+.45%) showing some strength among weakness in the overall market. If the semi's are the true leaders then they may be showing it here. Wouldn't surprise me to see it test the breakout point one more time though.

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#87 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 23 June 2007 - 08:31 AM

Just to throw a little more caution out there....

The QLD (2X the QQQQ move) is showing some bearish divergences. Notice the last high in price was reflected with a more shallow high in the CCI indicator. Also note the CMF (money flow) is showing weakness. Volume on the down days is becoming quite large.
This could all work off with much higher prices, but caution is the game plan right now until these divergences get played out.

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#88 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 29 June 2007 - 10:53 PM

Divergences with price and the indicators keep showing up so caution must still be exercised.

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Divergences still in place...also, the short term MACD Histo turned negative.
Once again, most importantly is the 26 week ma that says trade from the long side even if just for a quick scalp using the daily charts for entry/exits.

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Pretty much the same story. Its still a bull market until it isn't. :huh:
Many caution flags from weeks past still remain, but until it shows its hand that it wants to turn down, we have to stick with our game plan and take what the bull will give us.
ST MACD Histo is still negative despite a net positive week.

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#89 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 29 June 2007 - 11:00 PM

Tight stops are in order when buying the CMO 3-day break above -50 from below. As a rule of thumb,  placing a stop one tick below the previous days low should keep any losses to a minimum. Such would be the case now..as the CMO broke -50 only to pull back on Friday. If it takes out Thursday's low you would be stopped out and would look to re-enter as long as the weekly points us to long trades.
The divergence in the 12-day CMO is still showing up. The 11/34 ma cross is still pointing to the bull move.

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Stopped out and re-entry. Divergence still there. 11/34 ma crossover still in bull mode. Down volume started to shrink slightly on this past pullback.

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#90 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 29 June 2007 - 11:09 PM

Sox update....still above support of 493ish. MACD signal line has a bearish divergence, but not as much on the histo or RSI scale...although there is a little there. Possible flag building...we will have to watch what develops.

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