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Weekly Signals


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#226 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:33 PM

Despite the big run up on Friday, the index had a net loss for the week.
Sto looking to break through the 50 zone...ST MACD histo went negative, LT sliding down. 4 week ema turned down, the second time since the run off the March lows. Still waiting for the 26 week to turn down...kind of flat to a very slight up bias. As mentioned last week, the SPX and Dow are already on sell signals so it looks as the NDX should follow suit.

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Great up/down action this past OPEX week, but the index was down less than 2% for the week despite Fridays big sell-off....just the opposite of last Friday's big gain.

Sto breaks the 50 zone....Note: 4 out of the last 5 stochastic 50 crosses had the sto go all the way to the over-sold/overbought zones.

LT & ST MACD both locked to the downside....26 week ema went flat for the week. Still hasn't turned down yet...hard to believe as the SPX, INDU has been on the downslide for a couple of weeks. Looks like it wants to here....that would set the stage for a summer decline, but we must get the signal first. B)

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#227 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:45 PM

Daily Update:

On 11/34 ema crossover watch.

11/34 cross should happen next week baring a bear killing rally. 12-day still in bear territory, 3-day gave us a short signal mid week but weekly says not so fast. Small triangle/wedge building....volume picking up.

The daily is starting to get interesting again after a few weeks of see/saw action.

Monday should be fun as big moves on OPEX Friday are often followed with, what veteran floor trader Art Cashin calls, "opposite Monday".

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#228 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 27 June 2008 - 11:46 PM

...26 week ema went flat for the week. Still hasn't turned down yet...hard to believe as the SPX, INDU has been on the downslide for a  couple of weeks. Looks like it wants to here....that would set the stage for a summer decline, but we must get the signal first. 

Well it took longer than expected but we finally got the sell signal that we were anticipating from the 26 week ema. Actually it was mid week....

Sto entering 20 zone....LT MACD nearing signal line cross ...both MACD histos declining.
4 week ema looking to cross 20/26 week emas.

Well it doesn't get much gloomier than this picture for the long term.

We will use the daily charts for entry/exits on selling short positions.

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#229 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 28 June 2008 - 12:13 AM

Daily....

Nice down channel under construction since early June. Note the volume increasing when the channel started vs the uptrend from the March lows.
Bearish 11/34 cross occurred early in the week.
3-day CMO showing some divergence with price.
Note the candlestick doji on Friday showing some indecision between traders....doji's often mark short term trend changes....possibly pointing to a bounce of sorts next week. The divergence and the doji at the bottom of the channel coupled with the shortened and often light volume holiday week could point to a small rally next week.

We will wait for the CMO to set us up for a position to sell short.

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#230 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 03 July 2008 - 11:40 PM

Well it doesn't get much gloomier than this picture for the long term.

We will use the daily charts for entry/exits on selling short positions.

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Another good week for the bears...down over 2%.

Sto enters over-sold 20 zone, but it can stay down under the 20 zone for some time during a bear market.

LT and ST MACD histos now both in negative territory while the LT signal line looks ready to cross.

26 week ema firmly on the sell side.

We will trade from the short side using the dailies for entry/exits.

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#231 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 03 July 2008 - 11:57 PM

The divergence and the doji at the bottom of the channel coupled with the shortened and often light volume holiday week could point to a small rally next week.

We will wait for the CMO to set us up for a position to sell short.

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Well no rally was to be had although there was plenty of big swings this past week.

CMO not giving us much but bounces over the zero line were shortable.

Getting a decent wedge forming...note the big volume up day on Tuesday.

Although more downside is forecast for the longer term, some kind of rally or bounce is due and could last several days fooling people that a bottom was put in. Falling oil prices could really add to the frenzy as it is the focus of all the media. We will sit back and wait to pounce on the next shorting opportunity.

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#232 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 03 July 2008 - 11:59 PM

A Happy 4th of July to all.....

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#233 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 12 July 2008 - 12:44 AM

Another good week for the bears...down over 2%.

Sto enters over-sold 20 zone, but it can stay down under the 20 zone for some time during a bear market.

LT and ST MACD histos now both in negative territory while the LT signal line looks ready to cross.

26 week ema firmly on the sell side.

We will trade from the short side using the dailies for entry/exits.

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All that for a measly -.30%?
Sto well into over-sold territory, but as mentioned before it can meander in that area for some time during a bear market.
LT MACD had a crossover of the signal line...histo negative on both ST and LT. Note the histo on the ST--it actually moved up on a down week. It did that last November and warned us of a short term rally on the horizon. Time will tell if its warning us again...its something to keep an eye on but the trend is down as the all important 26 week ema points to.

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#234 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 12 July 2008 - 01:00 AM

CMO not giving us much but bounces over the zero line were shortable.

Getting a decent wedge forming...note the big volume up day on Tuesday.

Although more downside is forecast for the longer term, some kind of rally or bounce is due and could last several days fooling people that a  bottom was put in. Falling oil prices could really add to the frenzy as it is the focus of all the media. We will sit back and wait to pounce on the next shorting opportunity.

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CMO 12 and 3 day showing some divergence. A lower, low was made with price but the indicators failed to make a new low. Note a similar looking pattern at the March lows. I'm not saying we rally hard here like in March, but we must respect the positive divergence and play it cautious on the short side.
Volume picked up on the sell-off Friday...most likely will be tested at some point down the line.
With the divergence in place we will need to let this over-sold condition work its way off.
Use sound money management and tight stops especially during OPEX week.

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#235 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 20 July 2008 - 09:28 AM

Note the histo on the ST--it actually moved up on a down week. It did that last November and warned us of a short term rally on the horizon. Time will tell if its warning us again...its something to keep an eye on but the trend is down as the all important 26 week ema points to.

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Looks like the ST MACD histo warned us again of a possible bear market rally getting underway....although the index was up less than 1% for the week.
Not much change this week but note the ST MACD histogram once again heading higher with the possibility of a signal line crossover in a week or two. Sto still below the 20 line but now heading higher. All important 26 week ema still locked to the downside.

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#236 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 20 July 2008 - 09:42 AM

CMO 12 and 3 day showing some divergence. A lower, low was made with price but the indicators failed to make a new low. Note a similar looking pattern at the March lows. I'm not saying we rally hard here like in March, but we must respect the positive divergence and play it cautious on the short side.

Short term divergence didn't play out but the divergence on the 12 day CMO still valid. Note the big volume reversal last Tuesday...volume has declined sharply since then and most likely be tested at some point.
12 day CMO turned positive for one day and then reversed.
With the ST weekly indicators turning up, we must respect the possibility of a rally within the bear market so use sound money management and tight stops on short positions.

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#237 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 26 July 2008 - 12:25 AM

Looks like the ST MACD histo warned us again of a possible bear market rally getting underway....although the index was up less than 1% for the week.
Not much change this week but note the ST MACD histogram once again heading higher with the possibility of a signal line crossover in a week or two. Sto still below the 20 line but now heading higher. All important 26 week ema still locked to the downside.

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Indicators little changed for the week...and so was the index: up 1.28%.
Sto broke above the 20 line....LT MACD stalled out last week and was flat, but the ST headed up higher...the all important 26 week ema still pointing down, but the 4 week turned up. All in all it still looks to be just a correction rally within a bear market.

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#238 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 26 July 2008 - 12:40 AM

Short term divergence didn't play out but the divergence on the 12 day CMO still valid. Note the big volume reversal  last Tuesday...volume has declined sharply since then and most likely be tested at some point.
12 day CMO turned positive for one day and then reversed.
With the ST weekly indicators turning up, we must respect the possibility of a rally within the bear market so use sound money management and tight stops on short positions.

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Daily Update:
12 day CMO has gone positive (green, above the zero line) so we must use caution if playing the short side. Better to wait and let this show its hand here. If the CMO 12-day stays positive we may be in store for another bear market counter trend rally similar to last March-June. Although you can still have profitable short selling trades during a counter trend rally, you must take profits much more quickly (at -50 instead of -100on the 3-day) and can't simply allow the trades to run.
Note the resistance line just below 46. If we take that line out with any kind of volume behind it we may be in for a sideways up move until fall. Volume slacked off this past week, but we are getting into the heart of the light volume summer trading sessions.
11/34 crossover still in bear territory, but a push past that 46 line would probably set it up for a crossover. Use extra caution and tight stops on shorts this upcoming week.
On a side note, I may not be able to post an update next week but will resume as soon as I can....trade safe. :)

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#239 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 08 August 2008 - 08:53 PM

On a side note, I may not be able to post an update next week but will resume as soon as I can....trade safe.  :)

Back from some r&r....looks like it was an exciting past week.

Weekly update:
Up an impressive 5+%...
Sto past the 50 mid point range.
LT MACD looks ready for a signal line cross. ST MACD histo in positive territory with signal line crossover.
All important 26 week ema now pointing up with the past explosive week.
With most of the weekly indicators now pointing up, we will be playing the long side on pullbacks on the daily charts. If the daily declines to a point of changing the weekly status (mainly the 26 week ema) then we will reevaluate.

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#240 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 08 August 2008 - 09:02 PM

Daily update:

Note the positive divergence we spoke of a few weeks ago on the 12-day playing out.
Now the 3-day is working on its own negative divergence.
The index broke through gap resistance (blue line) on Friday but on low volume.
11/34 ema had a crossover by the slimmest of margins...01!
Have to watch for dips of the 3-day to -50 for entry points.
We must also keep an eye on the weekly as any large decline could trigger the weekly to change from its very mild b-ull stand.

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