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Weekly Signals


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#211 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 11 May 2008 - 11:13 PM

Weekly: Chalk up another winning week for the bulls. Except for the Sto in over-bought zone, the chart looks pretty strong here. Short -term MACD is entering the "twilight  zone" of +100 on the histogram scale.


Slight pullback of -1.09% for the week. LT MACD still looks pretty strong but the ST MACD took a turn down. Sto looking over-bought here, while the 26 week ema points higher.

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#212 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 11 May 2008 - 11:21 PM

Daily showing a negative divergence between price and the CMO-3 day....that is very short term stuff suggesting a possible mild pullback. Volume still on the lighter side.
Could be a saucer bottom taking place. If so, look for the break at the dark solid line just below 53. Need volume on that break though.

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Negative divergence from last week played out somewhat with the slight pullback. Pullbacks are becoming very shallow as pointed out by the 3-day CMO. It hasn't tagged the -100 line since the middle of last month. Thats a pretty bull-ish pattern for the 3-day. Should expect it to tag that line in the not to distant future. ;)

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#213 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 16 May 2008 - 11:17 PM

Slight pullback of -1.09% for the week. LT MACD still looks pretty strong but the ST MACD took a turn down. Sto looking over-bought here, while the 26 week ema points higher.

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Bulls had their way on this OPEX week...up an impressive 3.62%.
Sto still in over-bought territory. LT MACD looks in good shape while the ST histo is showing some slight divergence. 26 week ema still pointing up telling us to trade from the long side. Note the 20 week ema (red line) is looking likely to cross the 26 week ema (blue line) soon. During the last bear market, these two did not have a crossover until the bear was over in the spring of '03. All market cycles are different, but this crossover looks eminent.

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#214 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 16 May 2008 - 11:30 PM

Negative divergence from last week played out somewhat with the slight pullback. Pullbacks are becoming very shallow as pointed out by the 3-day CMO. It hasn't tagged the -100 line since the middle of last month. Thats a pretty bull-ish pattern for the 3-day. Should expect it to tag that line in the not to distant future.  ;)

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Daily still in rally mode. CMO 3-day is stuck oscillating between -50 to +80 and is compressing...usually pointing to a decent size swing coming.
The 3-day hasn't tagged -100 in over a month. Last time it went that long was in May '05.
Note the gap fill (green line) from January of this year.
Volume ticked up the last few days...may have more to do with OPEX week than anything else.
Note the divergence in the 12-day CMO and price.
Pullbacks nearly non-existent...many traders looking to join in not wanting to miss the rally. We must use discipline here and stick to our rules and wait for the market to come to us and not chase at these over-bought levels.....it will pull back at some point. :P

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#215 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 24 May 2008 - 11:12 PM

Note the 20 week ema (red line) is looking likely to cross the 26 week ema (blue line) soon. During the last bear market, these two did not have a crossover until the bear was over in the spring of '03. All market cycles are different, but this crossover looks eminent.

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No crossover with the bears winning the battle last week with a 3.56% decline. Sto looking to break through 80 from above. LT MACD histo joined the ST and turned down. 26 week ema still hanging in there pointing up.

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#216 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 24 May 2008 - 11:21 PM

We must use discipline here and stick to our rules and wait for the market to come to us and not chase at these over-bought levels.....it will pull back at some point.  :P

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Daily still in bull mode, but looking weaker with this recent pullback. 12 day CMO broke through to the "red zone" but 11/34 ema cross still in bull mode. 3 day CMO bounced off over-sold at Thursdays close and still waiting for a buy signal. Volume picked up on the decline Wednesday, but backed off getting closer to the holiday.

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#217 Bungster

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Posted 27 May 2008 - 09:00 PM

Thought I'd add one of my trend indicators....CPC



Just triggered today for the bear to resume for a while.... :ph34r: We'll see if it is correct.... ;)
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
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#218 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 02 June 2008 - 08:31 AM

Thought I'd add one of my trend indicators....CPC



Just triggered today for the bear to resume for a while.... :ph34r: We'll see if it is correct.... ;)

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Thanks, Bungster....we will have to keep an eye on that.

Quick weekly update as I was busy all weekend.

Big picture hasn't changed that much. Sto dipped below 80, LT & ST MACD histos turned down slightly while price advanced yet again creating a mini-divergence between prices and the histos. 26 week ema still says trade from the long side only using the daily charts for entries.

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#219 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 02 June 2008 - 08:50 AM

The daily....

12 day CMO sporting a negative divergence.
Note the thin red line (gap resistance) from last January. Prices tagged it last week again only to be rejected. Index could be working on a small inverse head and shoulder pattern building the right (inverted left) shoulder here. Several days of up/down movement would do it. Volume still on the lighter side with this up move.
3- day suggesting some pullback here but gave us a good entry for a long position last week.

On a side note: many people follow the Bradley turn cycles. Usually the Bradley gives many turn cycles each year, but only 1 or 2 major turning points. June 7th is a major turn point for this year with a +/- window of 7 days....so we are in the window now. The Bradley doesn't point to an up or down turn so it could go either way. Many traders are expecting a big drop mainly because the market has been so strong off its March lows. We need to keep an open mind on the Bradley because it could be an explosive move to the upside just as well catching traders on the wrong side....but if we keep following the weekly, it should direct us on which side of the fence to be on.

More info on the Bradley model

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#220 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 07 June 2008 - 09:00 AM

Big picture...weekly update:

The perfect storm played out Friday (record oil price, bad employment data, Israel/Iran tensions) that led to a decline of over 2% for the week.
Chart still hasn't changed much...Sto still sliding, LT MACD starting to roll over while the ST is looking for a signal line cross and histo just hanging in positive territory. 4 week ema has gone flat similar to late March, while the 26 week ema is still pointing up. It probably is only a matter of time before the 26 week ema rolls over as the SPX and the DOW has already turned down, but until it does we have to respect it.

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#221 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 07 June 2008 - 09:11 AM

On a side note: many people follow the Bradley turn cycles. Usually the Bradley gives many turn cycles each year, but only 1 or 2 major turning points. June 7th is a major turn point for this year with a +/- window of 7 days....so we are in the window now. The Bradley doesn't point to an up or down turn so it could go either way. Many traders are expecting a big drop mainly because the market has been so strong off its March lows. We need to keep an open mind on the Bradley because it could be an explosive move to the upside just as well catching traders on the wrong side....but if we keep following the weekly, it should direct us on which side of the fence to be on.

More info on the Bradley model

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Daily...possible Bradley turn?? Might be only time will tell.
The daily 12-day cmo showed the negative divergence with its latest move. Price moved up while the indicator did not...although on the big move down Friday, it didn't fall as much as one would expect. 3-day got us out of the long trade well before Fridays fall. 3-day is forming a triangle, so another good size move might be in the works.
11/34 ma's are still in bull mode, but volume picked up with Fridays fall.

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#222 anotherone

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Posted 10 June 2008 - 12:33 PM

Dr. Bontchev sighting.

One rival researcher, however, took exception to the call to arms. In a message posted to Kaspersky's support forum, Vesselin Bontchev, a Bulgarian researcher who works for Frisk Software, an Icelandic antivirus company, called it a stunt.

"What is proposed here is an unrealistic, useless waste of time that will fail," said Bontchev, who also charged that Kaspersky's estimate of the computing time it would take to break the key was optimistic. "The only use of this project is for generating free publicity for Kaspersky Labs."


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#223 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 14 June 2008 - 12:12 AM

Dr. Bontchev sighting.

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I emailed him some time ago trying to lure him back but with no luck. Too bad as hes a smart chap that got me interested in charts and such.

#224 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 14 June 2008 - 12:22 AM

Big picture...weekly update:

Chart still hasn't changed much...Sto still sliding, LT MACD starting to roll over while the ST is looking for a signal line cross and histo just hanging in positive territory. 4 week ema has gone flat similar to late March, while the 26 week ema is still pointing up. It probably is only a matter of time before the 26 week ema rolls over as the SPX and the DOW has already turned down, but until it does we have to respect it.

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Despite the big run up on Friday, the index had a net loss for the week.
Sto looking to break through the 50 zone...ST MACD histo went negative, LT sliding down. 4 week ema turned down, the second time since the run off the March lows. Still waiting for the 26 week to turn down...kind of flat to a very slight up bias. As mentioned last week, the SPX and Dow are already on sell signals so it looks as the NDX should follow suit.

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#225 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 14 June 2008 - 12:35 AM

Daily Update:

Not a whole lot of changes from last week. On 11/34 ema crossover watch. 12-day CMO went negative and is still printing lower highs from last April , 3-day gave a buy signal, but the weekly at the time was flat so we decided to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what develops next week. As noted above its a hard call as the S&P and Dow have already started to show signs of weakness and flash sell signals. Kind of hard to go long one index while going short the others. Once we get all three on one call we shall be in decent shape. Whether the NDX joins the other two will remain for next week.

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