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Potham Partners: Off The Cliff


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#16 wndysrf

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 06:59 PM

Pile:

I wouldn't be so excited to be shorting here.

Better to go long for the next week or so.....

SYMC, EBAY, QCOM look good for 3 - 4 points of upside.
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#17 PileDriver

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 07:08 PM

yeah baby, work that rally. NAZ Up 13! Fools!

Mark, not to worry, I've no intentions of shorting rally as soon as tomorrow, perhaps Friday. Will just wait for indicators to become overbought or Fib retrace levels hit, whichever comes first.

Heavy resistance at 26.2 on cubes

http://www.stockcons....cgi?symbol=qqq

Excellent

#18 MrHanky

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 07:21 PM

this market could go down tomorrow...you never know these days

looks like a quick pop though

Nothing


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Posted 22 January 2003 - 07:31 PM

Mark and Pile - you guys are awesome! Mark, Buddha, and SG all turned bullish last night, albeit very very short-term, which to me is a great indicator to take some small long positions...you guys called the early Jan rally right on the money.

The bull party with enterprise software stocks looks iffy to me - it's clear that corporate customers used their left-over IT budget in Q4 and as a result almost all software vendors' bottom lines are boosted. But can it last? Will it sustain such hefty valuations? I believe all major software vendors will see significant sequential revenue declines, and I would watch their licensing/service revenue mix - most of these guys will show a growing % of service revenue, which is low-margin, high-cost revenue, which shows a decelarating growth pattern. I plan to establish short positions in some of the big names in the space: PSFT, SEBL, MERQ, BMC, and CA, and some niche names like VRTS, DCTM, MUSE, COGN, FILE. The only sector I'd be cautious on is security software, a sector I believe has some real strength and earning power - names like CHKP and SYMC should continue to outperform other software stocks. Just my $0.02.

#20 Flaming Turds

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 07:40 PM

SLGLF got creamed today thanks to that article that Tigbits posted here last night. Over 1/3 of their shares changed hands. I got a nice haircut on it. See Tig I told ya Id get hit by sumthin! Did anyone try to short it? I should have played it differently, live and learn.

Gold is up to 362 which takes it firmly above the trend line which should be enough to make those gold bears reconsider.

#21 wndysrf

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 07:40 PM

If the afterhours strength holds, we will have a large 3 day island bottom.

These are the most powerful bottom formations, and can lead to significant rallies.

Go long on the open, and watch the volume. If we have a big volume move, then the rally will likely retest the prior highs.

If the volume is light, then it is probably just another 2 day day wonder.
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#22 brian4

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 07:42 PM

Jerkowitz- is now the anchor of the Bile Hour with Krudlow -using the name Cramer! I pointed out last night everyone was buying calls and with everyone piling on the call wagon-today would be DOWN! It was MORE than DOWN-major support at 882 and 879 on SPX was broken today-Bernie Schaeffer said after the bell-"the HIGH'S are in for the year" on all indexes" which is the right call. We are overdue for a bounce-BUT-this is WAVE 3 down and we have NEVER endured a wave 3 down of this degree-one MAJOR characteristic of a 3rd wave down is "the normal rules don't apply". Normally one would expect a bounce here BUT Nazquack hasn't really buckled yet-VIX and QQV are nowhere near extremes of fear-and everyone is still buying calls (I'll post the numbers later). Even my fellow stoolies are lusting to dong and then short. I said last night don't rule out ARMAGGEDON- if there is a bounce I'm ready for it BUT my gut and the evidence is telling me that a major collapse in the next two days is more probable then a bounce. Be careful and expect the unexpected! Trade Safe!

#23 sweefraapp

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 07:52 PM

$ has not been jammed yet.

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#24 3Martinis

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 08:02 PM

*hic*

Been lurking...now posting.
Mark...you rule. I raise a martini to you, the doc, and everybody else here in stoolieville.
In this age of obfuscation there are a slim handfull of places to find clarity. This is one of those places.

cheers.

#25 Ned38

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 08:04 PM

Just scanned the other boards to see which way the wind was blowing.

Everyone 'cept a few hardcores is expecting the gap and go tomorrow.

Eveyone expects NDX to get to 1040

Everyone getting long for the obvious ramporamma

And everyone expects that they will have the opportunity to go full tilt short right then and there.

And ride the wild surf down to the bottom.

Me ............I doubt it will be that easy

#26 Drano

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 08:06 PM

Mercury Retrograde, communications and electronics problems.

I shorted some more QQQ today, thought better of it and tried to close the position. Then QQQ tanked so I cancelled the order. Or thought I did -- kept getting a message that they had received order but it was still open. Called borker, servers are down and they don't have a clue whether it had filled.

Had to go pick up someone from the airport, got back and discovered that the order to cover was indeed cancelled and I was still short QQQ.

Celebrated :D until I looked at after hours quotes. :cry:
Of course I'm caustic!

#27 brian4

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 08:08 PM

p/c ratio .73-Equity Calls-429,387-Puts-266,522-OEX-Calls-17,363-Puts-12,816-XEO-Calls-400-Puts-zero-Equity Leaps-Calls-57,540-Puts-20,212-DIA-Calls-14,928-Puts-8,817-DJX-Leaps-Calls-500-Puts-72. Sure as hell doesn't look like a rally to me-as long as everyone piles onto the same side of the boat-DOWN she goes! trade Safe!

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 08:13 PM

You and me my furry, wing-ed friend. It was getting tooooo easy.
Now the famous question first proffered by the Knack kicks in,
should I stay or should I go? :blink:
I guess I'll wait 'til the morning to see where things are at.

#29 wndysrf

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 08:25 PM

Brian:

Sorry, the futures keep climbing.

Rule for 2003:

Cover shorts immediately on all island bottoms, ask questions later.

This thing is nowhere near reversing to the downside....
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#30 phatbubble

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Posted 22 January 2003 - 08:28 PM

b4 me too, i'm just not feeling it like earlier this month. and trading options i have no intention of donging it and then hoping to claw back up out of the hole in time to get short again.

for stoolies who don't have the pleasure of crapeuro (actual TA, bearish interviews, and emma), they had an anal cyst on this morning who stated unequivocally that some european indices had broken supports and were headed to retest the october lows. no hype, spin, or evasion, just a flat statement during an unhurried discussion.

mercury goes direct at 8:08pm EST, might do to watch the AH stuff, see if there's new movement of any kind.

anybody know more about rog?
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.





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