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Gap Left Behind....


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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 05:31 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – January 21, 2003

Everyone has been talking about the Golden Globe Awards. Nobody really cares about who wins or who attends. Its all about who is showing off the most skin. Who has the most sensational breasts. Your usual soft-porn show on network television.

Today’s stock market is no different. The Speculative Globe remains transfixed on the sensational semiconductor index (SOX). We have been patiently waiting for Dan “The Greaseman” Niles to issue a flurry of buy recommendations on this group. That would be our signal to heavily short these manic/depressive psycho stocks. Today, we got close enough:

Chip sector propped up by positive anal cyst comments (AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, $SOX, INTC, MU) by Tomi Kilgore The Phlx Semiconductor Index ($SOX) returned to positive territory, as the chip sector tracker attempts to halt a three session losing streak. The index is now up 0.2 percent, after being down as much as 1.5 percent earlier in the session, and after losing 12 percent over the previous three sessions. Helping prop up the index are positive comments from Deutsche Bank anal cyst Timothy Arcuri and Salomon Smith Barney anal cyst Glen Yeung. Arcuri raised his forecast for 2003 capital expenditures in the chip industry, and Yeung raised his chip equipment sector rating to "overweight" from "market weight" due to "more interesting" reward versus risk profiles in the stocks, which already reflect negative news.

Mark’s Translation:

All eligible men are hereby recommended to park themselves at the exit door of the rehab center and wait for the large breasted aspiring actresses. After all, once rehab treatment is completed, then all psycho behavior is already “priced in”. Dating these wild emotional roller coasters provide for “more interesting” scenarios, which may often lead to sex episodes “overweighted” towards the kinky side.


Unfortunately, the SOX is the sector of choice. The primary driver leading speculators to the promised land towards fantastic riches.

What else is there to say?

I was unable to watch the market most of the day, so I cannot comment much on today’s action. The leading contenders (KLAC, NVLS, AMAT) really didn’t move too much today, probably just another bra-strap adjusting session.

Which way will they break? Up or down? Nobody knows.

Note how Al Green dropped a 16 ton load of Repos into KenoLand today. Where did it go? Probably to the banks, who are having to prop up some more failing hedge funds. HedgeHog statements are landing in the mailboxes as we speak. And unlike the mutual fund hopers, HedgeHog investors generally have to fly blind until the quarter end or year end statement print.

Will we see a massive run out of these funds? The very source of all the short squeezing?

All I can say is that the U.S. Peso promptly collapsed and gold ran to even higher highs when Al decided to drop his load. Yet the gold stocks barely moved. A massive move in either the gold shares or the gold contract is imminent.

So far, the bull market action in these shares is textbook. High fear and loathing remains. See it, and remember it. Because one day the tech stocks will experience it, and that will be the time to buy.

I'm betting that the shorts in the gold shares are about to experience a "Gap Left Behind", to the upside.

I’ll have to let Buddha finish up:

“Using that OE Alice in Wonderland logic, I have been tracking and trading QueerLogic. It had a minor reversal already which is nothing compared to how it rockets if the index begins a small climb. Why? Because it was bitched down by the program robots right into OE. They cleared out all the losers who bought it up into its 'earnings' report. Actually I don't know why I don't just dispense with all short term nonsense and merely sell when I see Kudlow gloating on crapvision. Thats always a sure shorting signal. Without some of these clowns telegraphing what their drinking buddies are all set to do, how would anyone know with conviction. Trouble is I don't watch the show anymore, the nonstop bloodthirsty drumbeating for war on the GE telethon is just too nauseating for even me to stomach.”

“Remember when the economists everywhere were looking for sure growth this year? Last year? The year before that? I can remember vividly when King Pigman and head of Criminal Operations at MerrilStench, Komansky or whatever his name is told Rushyster on his show "It takes courage to be an investor". This was April 2001 or thereabouts. There were rumors then that he was retiring and leaving the burning building before any evidence could be traced back to him. Of course he denied it. Of course the rumors were true. His mission was to get out before some over zealous Gman caught up with him. I repeat my plan for renewal. Drop several dozen moles into these 'Houses' and wire everything up. Expose the daily coordination between trading and anal cyst desks. Shut down entire brokerages and sump pump the sewage into the East River.”

“As is so often the case in the NasDog market experience of last 3 years, waiting for a bounce which is always 'just around the bend' and getting that bounce are two different things. Market psychosis has morphed again. Patient is petulant and difficult now. In the New Year, everything was bright and cheery, now it sits on its hands, no bottoms are bought, divergences are ignored. There is never any telling in a vicious Bear which way the mood will swing from one hour to the next.”

“This is why it’s safer and more profitable to take that job at the drive in window of McDonald’s and back away from the playground of death. Waiting for a bounce to short into when you want it is a sickly enterprise. By the time you give up and short the 'weakness' MotherMarket then rockets radically subjecting you to a series of inhuman G forces. If you don't short the weakness, you find you have missed the ultimate slow leg down into Hell, the final grande mall of the epileptic Crack Comp. Never any comfort in a super Bear, never. No one can sleep when the Kodiak roams just beyond the borders of the campfire light. Stocks which are menstrating are subject to particularly gruesome attacks and mood violations. The Great Bear will smell out that which it cannot see. It will find granola stuffed into a lead lined box secured 30 feet above the ground. It will track any hapless stock on its period for hundreds of miles thru bush and briar.”


Regular strength commentary resumes tomorrow.



……………………..

Position Summary:

No changes.

We are 44% short, 32% long, 24% cash.

Half Short:

MBI at $50
KLAC at $41
CYMI at $39
NVLS at $35
INTC at $18
MSFT at $56
WHR at $56
INTU at $49

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
LEN at $56
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28


Half Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55
BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
GSS at $1.72
WHT at $1.05
KGC at $2.35
HMY at $16
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 The End

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 05:45 PM

No change in my position. 90% short. I just wish i was less PRUDENT. Still own the Feb spx calls from Friday's close. Oh well.


Great post wyndy. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#3 martialcomp

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 05:45 PM

All the hype surrounding the "January Effect" will prove to be wrong.

The Dow only has 100+ points to go before being negative for the year.

According to another commentator I read, the only thing keeping the market from tanking hard right now is the positive seasonal effects of the "January Effect". In other words, there is actually buying pressure in the markets preventing an even stronger tanking.

#4 Calculus

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:02 PM

Hey everyone, I'm new here and I like the mentality of what's discussed, but a quick question. What does 'OE' stand for?

Thanks

#5 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:02 PM

So far, the bull market action in these shares is textbook. High fear and loathing remains. See it, and remember it. Because one day the tech stocks will experience it, and that will be the time to buy


By the time we get to that point, few will be willing to lug their 1 ounce eagles down to the borker to trade for a share of whatever tech dog has survived the bonfire. I.E. IMO there won't be "dollars", or "yen" or "euros" and quite likely there won't be a Nazdog and possibly not even a NYSE. (had to get that in before Hyper arrived :P )

Rome is lit and Nero is rockin out.

#6

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:04 PM

Hey everyone, I'm new here and I like the mentality of what's discussed, but a quick question. What does 'OE' stand for?

Thanks

Welcome Calculus

Options Expiration.

#7 PileDriver

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:04 PM

...plus all the cycles haven't turned down yet but will by Feb. This is going to be an awesome bloodbath. :grin:

Licking my chops, its been a long three month hibernation...GRRROWL!!!

#8 martialcomp

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:04 PM

Ford and GM are expected to borrow 60 billion between them. Debt for both companies will continue to increase out of control.

FT Article on Ford and GM

Also, another article on housing in Orange County.

OC Register Article

And, the Martha Smilgis article on Bubblevision.

Martha Smilgis Article

#9 MrHanky

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:06 PM

all over crapvision....."FEAR OF WAR CAUSES DROP IN MARKETS"


should say"lack of shorts covering causes drop in markets"


I need a barf bag.



thanks mark,great job as usual!

Nothing


#10 arcothunder

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:21 PM

Be careful if you're short. Any sort of good news from Iraq will send us on a euphoria induced rally for a while. Of course, Bush is still a-bangin' the war drum, and it looks like we're going in. So, short with stops? LOL.

#11

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:26 PM

Be careful if you're short. Any sort of good news from Iraq will send us on a euphoria induced rally for a while. Of course, Bush is still a-bangin' the war drum, and it looks like we're going in. So, short with stops? LOL.

Is there any other way?? :D

#12 The End

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:26 PM

Calculus,

Welcome to the best damn website, for people like us. :grin:


I see your ? has been answered.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#13 The End

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:28 PM

Arcothunder,

You will be amazed at the BM's ahead of us!
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#14 phatbubble

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:43 PM

According to another commentator I read, the only thing keeping the market from tanking hard right now is the positive seasonal effects of the "January Effect".

i'm becoming convinced that there are subtle & persuasive forces holding more $ mgrs etc. in check than we think, folks who otherwise would be selling now. something is deeply gamey about the way things have been unfolding.

i know this is a Bear Thing to say and all, but an overnight monster gap down without any external 'news' wouldn't be surprising in the least.


Asian Fund Manager Lights Fart, Blast Spreads, Blows Up World Markets
Tue February ??, 09:42 AM ET

By "Nickel Joe" Binman

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A lone mutual fund manager in Singapore, apparently unaware that he was not supposed to sell, appears to have sparked the collapse of the world's financial markets in just under ten hours. The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) opened this morning at 204.56, a drop of over 97%.

Strangely, traders and money managers worldwide seem to be breathing a collective sigh of relief. The fund manager, who asked to remain anonymous, said he had sold shares in a methane company by accident. "I must've clicked in an open order window," he said. "I was playing Doom."

Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#15 Slothrop

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Posted 21 January 2003 - 06:57 PM

January effect has come and gone. It was possible to find small caps in late December and make some money, but the effect ended on or about January 15th. If you weren't out by then, you're stuck.





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