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The Hail Mary Pass


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#31 intertrader888

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:53 PM

I dunno anout the US, but Mexico and Brazil  look like they still have gas in their tanks...

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?eww

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ewz

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U.S. Markets are lagging badly.

The "rest of the world" markets are booming, thanks to unlimited liquidity provided by a sea of Trade Deficit Dollars and Petrodollars.

Most likely, the HedgeFunds are exiting the U.S. stock markets and piling on the foreign markets.

Or worse, they are shorting the U.S. markets and going long other markets in a "paired trade".

As usual, the HedgeFunds must always put their money to work.

They are always short something, or always long something, or a combination of both.

That could explain the sky high bearishness in the U.S. indexes, as measured by the 20-day put/call ratios and the Rydex ratios.

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It is funny that all those liquidity created prosperity elsewhere and only RE
bubble in the US.

Maybe we do not like to produce anything productive anymore. Too difficult,
too thin margin. Playing asset bubble is much easier game. :o

#32 capitall

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 07:19 PM

I dunno anout the US, but Mexico and Brazil  look like they still have gas in their tanks...

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?eww

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ewz

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


U.S. Markets are lagging badly.

The "rest of the world" markets are booming, thanks to unlimited liquidity provided by a sea of Trade Deficit Dollars and Petrodollars.

Most likely, the HedgeFunds are exiting the U.S. stock markets and piling on the foreign markets.

Or worse, they are shorting the U.S. markets and going long other markets in a "paired trade".

As usual, the HedgeFunds must always put their money to work.

They are always short something, or always long something, or a combination of both.

That could explain the sky high bearishness in the U.S. indexes, as measured by the 20-day put/call ratios and the Rydex ratios.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



It is funny that all those liquidity created prosperity elsewhere and only RE
bubble in the US.

Maybe we do not like to produce anything productive anymore. Too difficult,
too thin margin. Playing asset bubble is much easier game. :o

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Good point. Of course, if one plays the asset bubble, there is the constant risk of a negative paycheck, as some hedge funds have found out.

#33 capitall

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 07:37 PM

From dmm I think it was, over on the IDS board.

---------------------------------------------------

Repub senator from Louisiana today guesstimates 10,000+ dead in NO area. According to the 2000 Census, 67% of New Orleans' residents are black. But it would not surprise me if 95-98% of the casualties are black. Most of the of white casualties probably will come from the beachfront communities hardest hit in Mississippi and Alabama.

Some of the reaction to the coverage, IMO, is due to a lack of understanding of the NO area. Many see all the poor black faces in harm's way and deduce that they were singled out. But NO is the blackest major city in the U.S. and also one of, if not, the poorest. So the faces we see are not a subsector of New Orleans, they ARE New Orleans. Or at least 2/3rd.

If anything, the coverage will open eyes as to the widespread poverty that still exists---and is apparently growing at least under Bush's watch---in the U.S., most especially among the African-American population.

54% of U.S. blacks live in the South. There are 96 counties in the U.S. with black populations of greater than 50%. 95 of them are in the South. The status of American blacks, particularly in the South, has not been a topic of significant national attention since the 1960s and the civil rights movement and the so-called War on Poverty. Our president seems to like declaring war on things, maybe there's another war worth revisiting down in New Orleans.

-------------------------------------

Yes, the poorest people-- both black and white-- fall to the bottom of the USA, where they are then ignored. The small, maybe tiny, percentage of the people in the poor region who are barely above the poverty level themselves are then told by the rest of the US to "take care of your own."

My brother completely lost his house, in a predominantly white neighborhood in the New Orleans area. The white neighborhoods might have been actually been more flooded on average than the black ones. I don't know for sure. But I know there weren't news reporters living and reporting in my brother's neighborhood because the water was too high.

I agree that homebuilders aren't going to be making big bucks off of New Orleans rebuilding. Most folks in New Orleans lived in low-rent apartments. They aren't going to be affording any down payments on any single family dwellings, especially as those who had jobs have now lost them. And those who did have homes and mortgages would be crazy-- jobless as they are now-- to take on a 2nd mortgage, in addition to the mortgage on the submerged house that is ruined forever. I don't think my brother could do that.

Many generous people are helping out the hurricane victims in many ways. I hope the news will report on all of that. The folks that are left there need to get out right away, as the city is really uninhabitable now. And dealing with this kind of situation is more a job for the National Guard than the police. This is armed combat, having to fight against gangs trying to take over the city, gangs who have had unlimited opportunites to steal as many guns as they want from the stores abandoned in the hurricane. And the police can't do much about the lack of food and drinkable water either. Seems like this could not get much worse than it has gotten. Perhaps it can only get better from here. I pray for that.

Cap

#34 LeeWhee

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 07:51 PM

Close: a tight trading range that lied within close proximity of the unchanged mark...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is certainly a Freudian slip. Must have been thinking about the employment numbers.

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Barfing.com probably was working with a skeleton crew today. Maybe the cleaning lady wrote the wrapup.

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"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor™."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#35 FranciscoTheMan

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 07:55 PM

Close: a tight trading range that lied within close proximity of the unchanged mark...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is certainly a Freudian slip. Must have been thinking about the employment numbers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Barfing.com probably was working with a skeleton crew today. Maybe the cleaning lady wrote the wrapup.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Or the exterminator....

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One day sometime in the future he'll [Cramer] come blubbering and whimpering on air half naked and smeared with his own feces. It'll be the buy signal of the decade. --PhatBubble
One thing I think is certain. The more the world's central banks act to suppress the cost of long term capital, the more of it the market will demand, thereby keeping upward pressure on yields until the CBs have no choice but to relent. At that point we should see a massive final blowoff similar to that which occurred in 1980 and 1981. --Doctor Stool
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#36 LeeWhee

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 07:59 PM

6:04  Bush: Devastation requires more than one day's attention
6:05  Bush: There will be 'national response' to disaster
6:03  Bush: Storm requires 'immediate action'
6:02  President Bush: There is 'flow of progress'
5:58  Snow: This will be 'challenging time' for economy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Heard a piece on the radio coming home tonight: seems BofA has graciously decreed that any Katrina victim who holds a mortgage with them can have a 90-day "grace period" during which they won't be penalized for non-payment. :huh:

I'm thinking that if it were me, and my house had just been destroyed, making a mortgage payment in the next 90 days (or 90 years!) wouldn't be a high-priority item.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Sets up a pretty complicated situation. Looks as if tens of thousands of homes have been destroyed. Many, perhaps the majority, may not or can not be rebuilt...at least not on the land they formerly occupied. Yet the mortgages on them still exist, even if the homes don't and won't. For those who are insured, I suppose the issue is moot. But those who aren't are up the creek...literally and figuratively. And then there's the new bankruptcy law coming into effect in six weeks. Incredible situation.
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor™."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#37 nymphcaster

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:04 PM

That largess by bankers agreeing to late payments might be prompted by not wanting to have to move loans from performing to non-performing on the books.

#38

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:06 PM

6:04  Bush: Devastation requires more than one day's attention
6:05  Bush: There will be 'national response' to disaster
6:03  Bush: Storm requires 'immediate action'
6:02  President Bush: There is 'flow of progress'
5:58  Snow: This will be 'challenging time' for economy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Heard a piece on the radio coming home tonight: seems BofA has graciously decreed that any Katrina victim who holds a mortgage with them can have a 90-day "grace period" during which they won't be penalized for non-payment. :huh:

I'm thinking that if it were me, and my house had just been destroyed, making a mortgage payment in the next 90 days (or 90 years!) wouldn't be a high-priority item.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Sets up a pretty complicated situation. Looks as if tens of thousands of homes have been destroyed. Many, perhaps the majority, may not or can not be rebuilt...at least not on the land they formerly occupied. Yet the mortgages on them still exist, even if the homes don't and won't. For those who are insured, I suppose the issue is moot. But those who aren't are up the creek...literally and figuratively. And then there's the new bankruptcy law coming into effect in six weeks. Incredible situation.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

how will the mortgage holders collect? send out knucklebusters to haraSS the poor losers? seize whatever aSSets they do have? start garnishing their pay if and when they do get a job? can't threaten them with eviction when house is destroyed anyway

#39 Bob_Boberson

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:08 PM

As I understand it, the local economy in NO was tourism and oil. The oil industry wasn't badly hurt. The tourist industry was destroyed, but I don't see the problem for the national economy (I feel very badly for the chamber maids who worked at the NO Hyatt). There are other tourist destinations. The alternatives to the Big Easy are the Caribbean and Las Vegas. Club Med is probably a good investment now as they'll benefit from New Orlean's loss. But the real winner is Las Vegas. If you're going for a week of decadence, what's your option now?
It was either that or a Russian bathing beauty

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:10 PM

If you're going for a week of decadence, what's your option now?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

how 'bout Pat's in South Philly?

#41 longOnUranus

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:20 PM

Many generous people are helping out the hurricane victims in many ways.  I hope the news will report on all of that.  The folks that are left there need to get out right away, as the city is really uninhabitable now.  And dealing with this kind of situation is more a job for the National Guard than the police.  This is armed combat, having to fight against gangs trying to take over the city, gangs who have had unlimited opportunites to steal as many guns as they want from the stores abandoned in the hurricane.  And the police can't do much about the lack of food and drinkable water either.  Seems like this could not get much worse than it has gotten.  Perhaps it can only get better from here.  I pray for that.

My gate-guy, now friend, got a call from his daughter last night, alive and mostly well in some shelter in Mississippi. He had last heard from her as she was screaming from a closet as her roof was being blown off in Gulfport. He loaded up his pickup truck with 5 gallon gas cans, filled to the brim, as he didn't think he'd be able to get any gas for long stretches, and headed to Miss. to pick her up. His main worry, as the media reports, is car-jacking. He hopes his shot gut and pistols will discourage would-be criminals.

And, from others I have met and heard about 3rd party..the media is NOT overemphasizing the bad news. I believe every NO survivor will have 3 horror stories for every hero story.

I met several NO refugees today; my church (as are most DFW churches) is involved in the local relief effort and has sent a team of doctors, nurses and optometrists to LA/NO/Gulfport (many refugees lost their glasses in the flood).

The concerns of gentrified Dallasites focus on the fact that a lot of them there "Cajuns" (many of them indigent) will settle in Dallas. Unlike Houston, which in many ways is a big New Orleans, Dallas has a more western/midwestern attitude and ethos. Most people are willing to help and contribute short term; there is a growing sense of unease about the long-term implications of this. Vacation's Cousin Eddie is the best visual of this fear.

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#42 wndysrf

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:23 PM

My prediction is that all the mortgage defaults in New Orleans will be dealt with "Japan - style".

All the borrowers and property owners will be left off the hook indefinitely, until the Plutocrats and Wall Struck dream up of some kind of ingenious "workout" plan or RTC-style restructuring.

At the end of the day, the "rubble" loans will be sliced and diced, securitized, and sold off to the Bank of Japan and the Peoples Bank of China, who are always thirsty for "yield" and are always "yearning" for any and all real estate secured debt securities.

Whatever collateral deficiency remains will be slowly "charged off" against the lender's income over 10 years, so that nobody will notice.

Eventually, the purchase of the "rubble loans" by the Asians will end up being a giant call option on 100% ownership of lower Louisiana.

In 10 years, New Orleans will no longer exist.

It will be "New Bejing" and "Lower Tokyo", and the Chinese and Japanese will have a chokehold on the U.S. by controlling all barge and ship traffic up and down the Mississippi.

Heck, they have already taken over the Mexican and most Central American fishing industries and control of commerical waterways.

Why not make a run for the U.S.?

Eventually, they won't need a Navy.

They will own most of the ports of entry throughout the Americas.

All the gateways to our natural resource base.

How's that for a prediction??

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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#43 ogm

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:45 PM

Suds:

Things haven't changed the last few weeks.

Its still a global bear market across the board.

I guess we are the only two jerks who haven't been short.

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Global Indexes

U.S. Indexes and Sectors

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Geez, Mark, not you too :(

You won't beleive how many posts I've read this week on various message boards that look exactly like this.

"Damn, I'm so smart, no way this market will sell. Everyone will be short or already short into Katrina, and I'm buying/staying long, because all bears are so stupid, they don't understand how the markets work, and with the Katrina disaster market will go up, and everyone will look like a fool..... and I'll be the one of the few that will know when its the time for the next trading top, because I'll be looking at my super secret indicators, that no one else is looking at... Rydex Ratios and Put/Call _insert a a number here_ DMA".


I'm just wondering what do you and Bob Shtinker think of this chart ?

This is CBOE Index Put/Call with 10 and 21 DMA.

Not exactly a converntional wisdom :)

#44 Hiding Bear

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:51 PM

I just looked at yesterdays (Thursdays) Treasury daily statement.  They closed the day with $6B in their piggy bank.  Today they had payments due of somewhere around $20B due.  They didn't borrow it (they pre announced a Tuesday CMB announcement /auction).  Tax receipts won't cover the bill.  Where did it come from?

Maybe another shady Federal Finance Bank transaction?

I won't know the answer to that until close of business Tuesday....

Hiding Bear, what do you think?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


$14 billion in fiat money that the Treasury (yes Treasury and not the Fed) issued in November was to repay federal retirement plans for loaning money to the US. I know of no such loans today, but that doesn't mean there wasn't any.

In the last few days the Jones Act was suspended, state and local gasoline laws were over-ridden by national decree, the SPR was open, the IEA tapped, and $10 billion in spending was authorized for a 20 day bailout of the Gulf coast.

Don't think the current Treasury Secretary would let any rules get in his way of issuing more fiat money.

#45 GTNWORSE

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 08:59 PM

Wndy,

I´m as surprised as you are that the markets havent come apart after Katrina.  Actually, when I donged the biocraps and shittyconductors, I didn't even think about Katrina until afterwards, and then I felt like I had effed up and felt like selling, but didn't. 

It's a weird situation, 'cause it feels like a textbook bullish setup of "bad news - market up"...  but I am also nervous about a delayed negative effect like the one dmm mentioned in his Livermore post. 

I cannot deny that each hour that goes by and the Katrina thing sinks in deeper, I get a feeling of despair and anguish about what may come, but I try to stick with market signs to tell me what to do.  Harder now than ever before, because there are also some potential signs of weakness out there, and it's really easy to jump the gun and assume the the worst.

But if the negatives do materialize, I exit everything.  Until then, I stand by my positions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Check out this Swenlin article:
http://www.decisionp...50902_itbm.html
There are actually 3 of us who are long:) I'm going to stay that way with 1/3 position in RYVYX, and see if my gut will allow me to add another 1/3 position on Tuesday in RYMDX.
No guts, No glory.
Have a great weekend, and be grateful you don't live in NO





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