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The Hail Mary Pass


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#16 Drano

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:31 PM

Close: a tight trading range that lied within close proximity of the unchanged mark...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is certainly a Freudian slip. Must have been thinking about the employment numbers.
Of course I'm caustic!

#17 fxfox

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:32 PM

I dunno anout the US, but Mexico and Brazil  look like they still have gas in their tanks...

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?eww

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ewz

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U.S. Markets are lagging badly.

The "rest of the world" markets are booming, thanks to unlimited liquidity provided by a sea of Trade Deficit Dollars and Petrodollars.

Most likely, the HedgeFunds are exiting the U.S. stock markets and piling on the foreign markets.

Or worse, they are shorting the U.S. markets and going long other markets in a "paired trade".

As usual, the HedgeFunds must always put their money to work.

They are always short something, or always long something, or a combination of both.

That could explain the sky high bearishness in the U.S. indexes, as measured by the 20-day put/call ratios and the Rydex ratios.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


let us be a bit more precise.

DAX daily

it coildnt go above 50 fibo, until it doesnt clear out that downtrendline i wouldnt bet on the bull case.

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#18 Bungster

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:36 PM

Supply/Demand or Bulls/Bears are pretty evenly matched here. Stay tuned to next week for the exciting conclusion................

Bung ;)
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
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#19 fxfox

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:37 PM

:unsure:

Man, that article got me nervous.  I went looking for the last check my hedge fund advisor sent me after I sold.  Maybe I should run it by the authorities to see if it's any good....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


:lol: :lol: :lol:
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#20 Sudaca

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:39 PM

Fox, due to the dollar's recent fall, in USD terms, foreign stuff looks better for american or USD-based investors:

Check out the weekly bullish engulfing candles on these:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ewg

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ezu

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?epp

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?eem
Thanks, David

#21

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:49 PM

"We stand behind the due diligence," Mr. Gradante said. "We don't think we could have done anything different or better."

:blink: :blink: :blink:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

#22 Sudaca

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:53 PM

I am of the theory that one has to consider all global stocks nowadays in order to accurately determine the market's health. US equities are dominant, yes, but they are still only 50% of the world's market cap. I cannot conceive the US breaking down seriously without the other markets weakening in tandem, and that just isn't happening yet... on the contrary, they are getting stronger. Which is why I am mostly long foreign stuff, and relatively little US exposure.

And even if you strip out the currency effect and just look at the aggregate local currency indexes of the world, including the US, today we are within a hair of making new multi year highs again (less than 0.4% away)

So that's why I am hesitant to say that the global bull market in stocks is dead yet. So far, I just see rotation.

Of course, that could change.
Thanks, David

#23 flockofsheeples

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 05:56 PM

"Checks for $3.15 million from Mr. Israel to Mr. Starker -- bearing characters from the cartoon Sponge Bob Square Pants -- bounced, court records show. Mr. Israel's wife told Mr. Starker's counsel that she hadn't received any money from her estranged husband, according to court papers." :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


Maybe it's just me, but if I got a check from a hedge fund chieftan with Sponge Bob Square Pants on it, I'd get a little leery...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


is this for real? Whats next? A Homer Simpson Hedge Fund? A Barney Gumble Beer Fund? A Millhouse Trash Fund?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



:lol: :lol:

you should see my "pin pals" bowling ball. :D
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:00 PM

that hedge fund story is hard to believe, but it's a crazy world these days

some of this New Orleans stuff is hard to believe too, but if it's true I think the stock market is in for a continued decline

"It is reported that black hurricane victims in New Orleans have begun eating corpses to survive." Four days after the storm, thousands of blacks in New Orleans are dying like dogs. No-one has come to help them. :huh:

#25 wndysrf

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:01 PM

5:56 Snow: Treasury in regular contact w/ banks, business leaders
5:55 Treasury Secretary Snow: Fed gov 'rushing aid' to victims
5:55 Energy Dept. loans 12.6M barrels of reserve oil

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#26 wndysrf

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:07 PM

6:04 Bush: Devastation requires more than one day's attention
6:05 Bush: There will be 'national response' to disaster
6:03 Bush: Storm requires 'immediate action'
6:02 President Bush: There is 'flow of progress'
5:58 Snow: This will be 'challenging time' for economy

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#27 Bungster

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:09 PM

that hedge fund story is hard to believe, but it's a crazy world these days

some of this New Orleans stuff is hard to believe too, but if it's true I think the stock market is in for a continued decline

"It is reported that black hurricane victims in New Orleans have begun eating corpses to survive." Four days after the storm, thousands of blacks in New Orleans are dying like dogs. No-one has come to help them. :huh:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Shorty,

People can survive for weeks without food. But, they do need water.

Bung
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#28 wndysrf

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:09 PM

Suds:

Things haven't changed the last few weeks.

Its still a global bear market across the board.

I guess we are the only two jerks who haven't been short.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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#29 Sudaca

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:24 PM

Wndy,

I´m as surprised as you are that the markets havent come apart after Katrina. Actually, when I donged the biocraps and shittyconductors, I didn't even think about Katrina until afterwards, and then I felt like I had effed up and felt like selling, but didn't.

It's a weird situation, 'cause it feels like a textbook bullish setup of "bad news - market up"... but I am also nervous about a delayed negative effect like the one dmm mentioned in his Livermore post.

I cannot deny that each hour that goes by and the Katrina thing sinks in deeper, I get a feeling of despair and anguish about what may come, but I try to stick with market signs to tell me what to do. Harder now than ever before, because there are also some potential signs of weakness out there, and it's really easy to jump the gun and assume the the worst.

But if the negatives do materialize, I exit everything. Until then, I stand by my positions.
Thanks, David

#30 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 06:36 PM

6:04  Bush: Devastation requires more than one day's attention
6:05  Bush: There will be 'national response' to disaster
6:03  Bush: Storm requires 'immediate action'
6:02  President Bush: There is 'flow of progress'
5:58  Snow: This will be 'challenging time' for economy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Heard a piece on the radio coming home tonight: seems BofA has graciously decreed that any Katrina victim who holds a mortgage with them can have a 90-day "grace period" during which they won't be penalized for non-payment. :huh:

I'm thinking that if it were me, and my house had just been destroyed, making a mortgage payment in the next 90 days (or 90 years!) wouldn't be a high-priority item.





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