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#1 DrStool

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:15 PM

While Mark is out earning an "honest" living, I will throw the podium open for your espousals.

Carry on Stoolies!

P.S. Do you think I have been too bearish lately. :lol:

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#2 tdultima

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:25 PM

enjoy your weekend unhappy print bullsPosted Image

#3 realist

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:33 PM

Not quite a buy signal yet according to the MACD, but it is quite possible that the selling could be nearing an end. Without a decent push under 1555, the NDX has held up relatively well compared to the INDU and SPX. The uptrending channel is still intact and could very well target 1700 on the next upswing. I'm back in cash as of the close and will wait to see what happens after Labor Day. If the NDX holds the channel, then most likely it's going back up IMO... B)

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#4 Grand Poopercycle

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:34 PM

UST 10/2 now 11 bp. At this rate, it'll invert before next week is over.

10/3mo now 64 bp. Single best recession forecaster may be in place
by end of Scheptember.

#5 Sudaca

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:39 PM

Tape breakdown analysis

NYSE A/D line sitting right at its 50 day mov avg

Or it does a January kind of bounce before falling, or it falls below it like in March, extending the correction.

Stay tuned....

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Thanks, David

#6 Sudaca

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:44 PM

enjoy your weekend unhappy print bullsPosted Image

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Where's Shorty ?

He should've already come out with his own...

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Thanks, David

#7 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:48 PM

Close: Despite oil prices closing lower for the first time in seven sessions, investors had little else in the way of upside catalysts to offset a decline in consumer sentiment, a Fed warning about financial-market risk and rising bond yields... While record high oil prices added to the market's nervousness throughout most of the day, nearly hitting $68/bbl on hurricane concerns, crude oil futures ($66.13/bbl -$1.36) sold off sharply into the close of commodities trading amid an updated report that Hurricane Katrina may now miss the bulk of key oil platforms in the Gulf...

But it was not enough to eclipse the first decline in consumer sentiment in three months and a warning from Fed Chairman Greenspan that a recent rise in asset (i.e. stocks, homes) prices suggests an increased determination by investors to accept risk... Within minutes after the market opening slightly lower, investors got a final read on University of Michigan Sentiment, which checked in at 89.1, below forecasts of 92.5 and July's final read of 92.7, pushing the market down for good...

Even though the sentiment data do not correlate well with spending and the economy overall remains strong, the high gasoline prices (which rose to a record of $2.65/gal last week) behind the decline in sentiment weighed heavily on investors' psyches, as every economic sector closed lower amid a typically light volume Friday in late August... Pacing the way lower was Energy, as oil prices closing down 2.0% prompted participants to lock in some of the sector's 27.5% year-to-date gain...

#8 Sudaca

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:49 PM

UST 10/2 now 11 bp.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Incredible. Have you checked out the dynamic yield curve function in Stockcharts?

You can slide over different points in time along the S&P and you'll see the changing shape of the yield curve... pretty cool

http://stockcharts.c...YieldCurve.html
Thanks, David

#9 capitall

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 04:51 PM

Tape breakdown analysis

NYSE A/D line sitting right at its 50 day mov avg

Or it does a January kind of bounce before falling, or it falls below it like in March, extending the correction.

Stay tuned....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Someone posted a news article yesterday on one of the boards about the Fed investigating the derivatives towers of the Titanic (Banking Industry) because they are not even keeping track of their open trades. That mess may have something to do with the urge to sell so badly that the PTB can not even close it green on Friday afternoon.

#10 capitall

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 05:31 PM

If you look at Greenspan's recent words, they appear to be warning people that they can no longer depend on "the Greenspan put" to keep their stocks and houses from losing value after they buy overpriced ones. So that is pretty bearish for the markets, as a lot of people who have been buying have been believing that Greenspan would keep everything steady for them. The assumed government insurance on the value of assets of all kinds may be running out.

#11 wndysrf

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 05:53 PM

Negotiations on a $2 million shopping center loan today were intense.

A refi/cash out loan.

Five banks are bidding for the deal.

We lowered our rate by a 1/4%, threw in a $250,000 free "equity line of credit" for the guy.

He still didn't take our proposal.

He's looking at an IndyMac loan, which has an even lower fixed interest rate and no yield maintenance or prepay. Bank of America is also in the hunt, and they have turned to be very aggressive.

I doubt we'll get it, after working on it for 48 hours straight.

Lending market is going full blast right now, lenders are desperate to book loans.

In the meantime, our portfolio continues to shrink as good quality loans are leaving our bank and going over to the IndyMac's of the world.

Its a game of sheer survival.

Our CEO is "desperate for yield", willing to throw anything and everything on the books that is half decent.

If he can't find new loans, then he's forced to the Agency or Mortgage-Backed markets in the "hunt for yield".

Banks like us are among those who are chasing Structured Exotica. We are flush with cash and deposits, and so is every other bank in town.

An unwavering lust for "earning assets" everywhere.

Whatever weakness that is occurring in stocks recently hasn't stopped the banks from "reaching" for riskier deals.
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#12 capitall

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 06:06 PM

Negotiations on a $2 million shopping center loan today were intense.
....

Whatever weakness that is occurring in stocks recently hasn't stopped the banks from "reaching" for riskier deals.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Yes, the belief seems to be that stocks may not go anywhere but RE is going to the moon and then to the next solar system, so that's the place to be. But if it doesn't, all the banks are going to be up a creek. What will they do with all this overpriced and unsellable residential and commercial real estate, when it comes back back to them because people ca no longer make their mortgage/loan/refi payments?

#13 LeeWhee

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 06:11 PM

Not quite a buy signal yet according to the MACD, but it is quite possible that the selling could be nearing an end. Without a decent push under 1555, the NDX has held up relatively well compared to the INDU and SPX. The uptrending channel is still intact and could very well target 1700 on the next upswing. I'm back in cash as of the close and will wait to see what happens after Labor Day. If the NDX holds the channel, then most likely it's going back up IMO...  B)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Unlike the SPX or Dow, the NDX is looking mightly orderly on this decline. Looks like it's alternating months since April---one month up, one month down.

In looking at the biggest-weighted components, many of them could pop 10% without the big picture changing or hitting significant resistance. Top 10 weightings (41% of index): MSFT, INTC, CSCO, DELL, QCOM, ORCL, AMAT, LLTC, AMGN, MXIM. With most of the market concern seemingly centered around rate-sensitive financial stocks (GM, GE, homebubblers, banks, etc), perhaps money will flow into the NDX.

An early Sept rally off a late Aug low would hardly be unusual for the NDX. In fact, since 1992 when the data began, the NDX has had early Sept rallies 11 out of 13 years. The only exceptions were 2000 when the NDX made a high at the end of August and fell through the end of the year; and in 2001 when the NDX was falling into the end of August and kept falling through the terror attacks of 9/11.

Here are the early Sept NDX rallies since 1992:

1992--- 13% b/w 8/25-9/15
1993--- 7.5% b/w 8/26-9/29
1994---4% b/w 9/1-9/17
1995---12% b/w 8/29-9/12
1996---16% b/w 9/1-9/26
1997---7% b/w 8/28-9/24
1998---26% b/w 9/1-9/28
1999---9.5% b/w 8/31-9/20
2002---11% b/w 9/3-9/11
2003---10% b/w 8/26-9/21
2004---6.5% b/w 8/30-9/21

Note how these rallies started like clockwork either the last few days of Aug or the first few days of Sept. It should also be noted that these early Sept rallies foretold little about how the NDX would perform through year end. Some years it kept on rising. Some years it made a lower low after the Sept rally.

Based upon the late Aug/early Sept low, the NDX:

1992---made higher low in early Oct, rose through year end
1993---made higher low in Nov, rose through year end
1994---made lower low in early Oct, chopped through year end
1995---made lower low in early Oct, chopped through year end
1996---kept rising through year end with no correction
1997---crashed in mid-Oct, chopped through year end
1998---crashed in early Oct, rose strongly through year end
1999---made slightly lower low in mid-Oct, rose strongly through year end
2002---made lower low in Oct, rose through year end
2003---made higher low in late Sept, rose through year end
2004---made higher low in late Sept, rose through year end

Attached Images

  • NDX_8_26_05.png

"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#14 An Ant

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 06:20 PM

Irrational Exuberence ?
Sounds more like CYA in case of disaster.

Greenspan: Investments Won't Soar Forever
Friday August 26, 5:10 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer 
Greenspan Warns That History 'Has Not Dealt Kindly' With Unfounded Financial Optimism


JACKSON, Wyo. (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday cautioned Americans against thinking the value of their homes and other investments will only go higher, saying "history has not dealt kindly" with that kind of optimism.


Greenspan also said that bloated trade and budget deficits threaten the long-term health of the U.S. economy.

His warnings, made at a high-profile economic policy conference, came as the Fed chief and prominent economists pondered his 18 years at the central bank and the legacy he will leave. He is expected to step down in five months.

Rising house and stock prices have made many people feel more wealthy and have helped to support consumer spending, a key ingredient of the economy's good health.

Greenspan, however, said people shouldn't count on that paper wealth, which can evaporate if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly.

"What they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear," he said. "Any onset of increased investor caution" could cause home and stock prices to drop, he noted.

A long spell of low interest rates and low risks for investors has especially encouraged investment in homes. Greenspan worried about what would happen if that climate were to change.

"History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low-risk premiums," he said.

Low interest rates have powered the booming housing market. Home sales have hit record highs four years in a row, and house prices are surging. In previous speeches, Greenspan has warned of "froth" and "speculative fervor" gripping some local housing markets.

If house prices were to fall suddenly or if interest rates were to rise rapidly, some local housing markets, homeowners and lenders could get clobbered.

"Greenspan is giving individuals ample warning that they need to take that into account," Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics, said in an interview. "He's throwing out a yellow flag of caution.


http://biz.yahoo.com...span.html?.v=16

#15 beardrech

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Posted 26 August 2005 - 07:10 PM

Your on Jeopardy

For 10 cans of Tomato Paste and a Jar of Smuckers Marmalade:
Guess how many mass incidents were reported to have happened in China in 2004 as stated by the Security minister,the SECURITY MINISTER mind you, in Auug 24 issue of the International Herald Tribune

You? Wrong You? wrong You?wrong and last You,How many? wrong----All wrong

The answer? I'll give you an answer

not 10 thousand not 20 thousand nor 30 thousand not 40 thousand or 50 thousand uh uh not 60 thousand,not even 70 thousand----would you believe seventy-four thousand mass incidents--throughout the country

including even angry military pensioners

entire villages

Alright Hang Chow Ming--as Mao once said "No more Mr Niceguy"

This is an example of the Peter Principle writ large

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: Tonight your Pizza will not have the color red on it-and no marmalade with your breakfast coffee





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