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Unfilled Gap Down Finally Appears?


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#16 wndysrf

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 07:26 PM

Sweefraapp:

DOUBLEDOUBLE


My guess is that we have a parallel candle next to today's on Tuesday.

Then another gap down.

The reverse image of the October lows.

Double Breakaway gaps from the "Most Advertised Double Bottom"

followed by:

Double Downside gaps from the "Hope Hysteria Top"
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#17 summoner

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 07:44 PM

Talk about irony...taking a two day trip this week with the family to THE GREAT BEAR LODGE indoor water theme park...hope they have Crapvision and internet access...lol ...DOC, the grizzly roar on their website has nothin on stoolville! TRADE SAFE ALL, RYVNX up nicely today.
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NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#18 brian4

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 07:56 PM

Summoner my man and END-the 950 BOYZ are allll over it! I said last nite NO RALLY! This is 3rd wave down-look beyond the market-every piece of news, every release-is worse than expected-typical behavior at the point of recognition-all the chickens come home to roost. Budda is right- this is the time the dippers and the black box boyz get deepfried and put thru a sieve-they will keep piling into the dips (because they have been trained like Pavlov's DOGS) until they are totally ruined-right now they are a BEAR'S best friend. Look at the QQV-it went down today -no FEAR in NAZQUACK-well they better used to triple digits real quick! They put some lipstick and a new dress on the PIG near the close but it didn't last too many people have figured out it's really Dick Grasso under the lipstick and the wig. The housing numbers were shocking if you ignored the spin and actually read the report- it's time to short-CTX, LEN, FNM and Pulte-the housing BOOM is on the SLED DOWN. I see END is being prudent thinking there could be a small bounce Tuesday and I think he'd agree if there is one it will be small-3rd waves down are relentless and pause only long enough to bring the dippers in to get fried again-the bottom should be late February to mid March so we have a long, long way to go and a long, long way to fall and don't expect to buy so quick at the bottom-3rd wave aftermaths are like 87-sideways for several weeks. I won't be buying calls-I have stops in (fairly loose) and will ride it thru-I don't expect a bounce yet! Trade Safe!

#19 The End

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:17 PM

B4,

A few grand is nothing but insurance. If we go to 920 I sell the calls and go even shorter. If we break below 900 meaningfully then i sell the calls at a small loss. It's all about sleeping at night. Tonight and the next four nights, i will snore. I need it. :wink2:

Hows this? 800-790 by Jan end a rally and then 650 by March end. A dream, maybe, maybe not.

Don't pay me no mind. I am nuts.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#20 phatbubble

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:33 PM

Hows this? 800-790 by Jan end a rally and then 650 by March end. A dream, maybe, maybe not.

Don't pay me no mind. I am nuts.

end, you're anything but.

in july we had an intraday SPX drop of 150 pts in 6 trading days.

:P :D :lol:
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#21 GTNWORSE

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:38 PM

Hey Guys,
Looks like the great calls just keep on coming here at Capitalstool. Did not have the stomach to buy RYVNX today and hold over the long weekend.
I see the P/C ratio is at .82 today. Hope that gives us a bounce on Tuesday-Wednsday to go short into. I see Simple Guy is looking for 26.25 on the QQQ's to load the boat!
He's been so close with his calls it's a bit unnerving!

#22 longOnUranus

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:39 PM

From 931-901 in a week; the agonizing drip-drip-drip of liquidity searching for it's own level. Barely noticible on the weekly charts. The descent has begun.

I am now 90% cash, 10% short UNH after K-Wave rekindled some fond memories from the recent past. Added to shorts @ 84 on the safe-haven bounce today; will be in the 60's shortly. I'm more optimistic about K Mart than I am about health care, only shrinking margins for all concerned.

I am not a wimp! However, last time I looked, long weekends are rarely followed by dramatic drops: bears sit and worry too long, as they are prone to do; bulls get too optimistic after 3 days of financial propaganda, especially if they are sitting on cash. I vote for Mark's Candle II, followed by Arch's t*ts-to-the-wall downer later in the week. Will re-establish puts on Tuesday, normal caveats.

The curse of being an options guy is timing. I am strongly considering SG's 200% leveraged short fund on the next leg down + BEARX --> timing will get real tough once were out of the range we've been in, which has worked out well for me in options. Either that, or go with 2004 LEAPS (I've NEVER made money on a LEAP). Looks like a double at least by the time we hit the next false "bottom". How many shorts are going to cover at 800, eh? Will paint a perfect chart for the bulls. Plus, the war will be on.

Good weekend, all. Mark, thanks again for your great summaries, you've got one devoted reader here.

#23 EasyAl

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:39 PM

On the other hand, the new moon on Feb. 1 (also at 5:49 a.m. on a Saturday morning -- is this some kind of cosmic joke?) looks fairly bullish when coupled with end-of-month seasonality.

Machine:

Feb. 1 is also Chinese New Year, which will be the year of sheep. The question is whether sheeps resemble to bears more than bulls.

#24 longOnUranus

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:48 PM

I talk regularly with several insurance/financial planner guys; one said he was recommending the variable-annuity PPO's (see post on page 1) to "doom and gloomers" like myself. Guarantted return. The insurance companies are also required to keep full asset value + 20-30% as reserves. This, his pitch went, contrasts to 5% bank reserves. I've alway been "Brinkerized " when it comes to variable annuities, but the company (Farmers) seems quite solvent. May be a good place to store 6 figures, since FDIC limits 100K.

#25 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:00 PM

I talk regularly with several insurance/financial planner guys; one said he was recommending the variable-annuity PPO's (see post on page 1) to "doom and gloomers" like myself. Guarantted return. The insurance companies are also required to keep full asset value + 20-30% as reserves. This, his pitch went, contrasts to 5% bank reserves. I've alway been "Brinkerized " when it comes to variable annuities, but the company (Farmers) seems quite solvent. May be a good place to store 6 figures, since FDIC limits 100K.

I have a similar group of financial planner/insurance guys, and I asked her abot these and if they were a good option for her customers. Her response was the problems are:

1) your money is tied up for years with big penalties for early withdrawal
2) heavy mangement fees

and further when I asked what the big/smart money is doing now, she said they are in cash. Some of the smaller/dumber money has gone into these products. I'll follow up more later.

#26 MrHanky

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:08 PM

awesome commentary mark,excellent info as always..I look foward to your rantings,its the highlight of my day.(I have no life lol)


had some mar 26 puts bought @ 1.35 and sold for 1.85 in 2 days.I'm happy with the profit but I still wuss out on making any big bets either way(stage fright i guess)

my only position for now is a few ebay april puts picked up near its highs.I will wait for the reversal that i know will come on those shares.I will attempt to pick up more qqq puts on a decent bounce.

I used to have huge daily swings of 10-30k in my accounts a few years ago but I can't deal with that anymore,I guess I need to get more aggressive like i used to be,but I don't want to get whopsawed anymore for large amounts of cash(A 1k swing in my accounts freak me out nowdays)

I have been making money on most of my trades the last few weeks thanks to sg ,doc and everyone else on the board,I really appreciate it...heres hopin for a nice bounce for all of you to short!

Nothing


#27 The End

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:12 PM

Annuities are a great deal provided, you deal with a co. that has a living benefit and will be solvent 10 years from now. Try ING's 7% V/A .
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#28 roidrage

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:28 PM

May be a good place to store 6 figures, since FDIC limits 100K.

Consider opening six FDIC insured accounts at six banks or S&Ls or consider rolling over US Treasuries through TreasuryDirect if you are that concerned about solvency of the institutions.

rr

#29 BAREister

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:35 PM

End, Mike Drakulich said on Crystal Ball today that he thinks January will be a DOWN month.

FYI, FWIW

Bhudda speaks of high? crimes and misdemeanors, BUTT: folx, we haven't even had one SHOW TRIAL of any consequence yet.

speaking of that sort of thing, the latest missive from MARTIN WEISS alleges there are something on the order of 47 separate major investigations into Wall St institutions and their ALLEGED shenanigans.

And HRFF read SNOT 'long' ago, that Henry Bludgeon was/is scheduled, soon FUR his rendezvous w DESTINY, "destiny", evidently, in the form of the NY AG's office, butt, so FUR, nuttin's happened.


We are ASSured that all is well and it's one big ROSY SCENARIO....ass FUR ass the eye can c.

oh, YEAH?

Now WHY is Barton bailing THIS year?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#30 The End

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:40 PM

Bare,

It only took a year and a half to respond or acknowledge me. "End,"

Tanks.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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