The "anne Heche" Supermodel
124 replies to this topic
Posted 17 January 2003 - 03:23 AM
There's a little TOO much bearishness around here of late FUR comFURt
This recent decline has been a little TOO easy FUR HRFF's liking.
Off to the Land of Nod.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 17 January 2003 - 05:19 AM
Thanks Bear for saying that.
Just wanted to say that I fully appreciate SG's insightful comments, as I do FM's. It is always best to hear both sides and avoid, as much as possible, the chest beating that seems to be going on around their thoughtful posts.
I also miss MH and BB terribly and wonder if doc can encourage them chime in once in a while.
Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:42 AM
I'm quite familiar with the semiconductor and flat panel capital equipment market.
Typically, the semiconductor employment cycle works like this after the cycle peak:
1) Demand drops, people have to be laid off, consultants/temps go first, then full-time employees go next
2) Layoffs continue until there are not enough people to get projects completed. Have to hire temps/consultants to get projects finished without adding to headcount.
3) Demand picks up and companies start hiring full-time employees instead of temp/consultant.
4) Demand goes nuts and they have to hire temp/consultants instead of full-time, so as not to have to lay them off later.
The agency I work through - one who specializes in placing full-time and temp. engineering talent for the semiconductor equipment biz. - has placed ONE full-time engineer in the last year and has not placed ONE temp/consultant in that time. 2nd half last year, they were told by most companies to "go away until next year". Now it's next year and some staff may start to be added, primarily due to this postponement. These guys have been in the business in SV for more than 15 years and say they have never, ever seen a downturn this bad.
So don't bet the farm on a recovery with AMAT at 3x it's 1998 low. I'll be buying when it's down around 7 bucks or so.
I'll call today and get an update.
Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:01 AM
Truly a brave soul! Most of these miners hit their highs when gold was at 330. 355+ now and you're short? Hope you've got some stops on that position. This is just the beginning of the bull in gold, not the end.
Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:06 AM
Yeah, I feel there is a certain amount of recovery already priced in the tech stocks. Most will never be "growth" stocks again. Semi growth = economic growth = boring = lower PE.
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