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The "anne Heche" Supermodel

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#121 BAREister


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Posted 17 January 2003 - 03:23 AM

There's a little TOO much bearishness around here of late FUR comFURt ™

This recent decline has been a little TOO easy FUR HRFF's liking. :unsure:

Tally ho!

Off to the Land of Nod.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

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#122 alborz


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Posted 17 January 2003 - 05:19 AM

There's a little TOO much bearishness around here of late FUR comFURt

This recent decline has been a little TOO easy FUR HRFF's liking. <_<

Don't we have a 'long' weekend coming up?

Tread carefully, y'all!!! :unsure:

Tally ho!

Off to the Land of Nod.

Thanks Bear for saying that.

Just wanted to say that I fully appreciate SG's insightful comments, as I do FM's. It is always best to hear both sides and avoid, as much as possible, the chest beating that seems to be going on around their thoughtful posts.

I also miss MH and BB terribly and wonder if doc can encourage them chime in once in a while.

#123 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 17 January 2003 - 08:42 AM

I'm quite familiar with the semiconductor and flat panel capital equipment market.

Typically, the semiconductor employment cycle works like this after the cycle peak:

1) Demand drops, people have to be laid off, consultants/temps go first, then full-time employees go next
2) Layoffs continue until there are not enough people to get projects completed. Have to hire temps/consultants to get projects finished without adding to headcount.
3) Demand picks up and companies start hiring full-time employees instead of temp/consultant.
4) Demand goes nuts and they have to hire temp/consultants instead of full-time, so as not to have to lay them off later.

The agency I work through - one who specializes in placing full-time and temp. engineering talent for the semiconductor equipment biz. - has placed ONE full-time engineer in the last year and has not placed ONE temp/consultant in that time. 2nd half last year, they were told by most companies to "go away until next year". Now it's next year and some staff may start to be added, primarily due to this postponement. These guys have been in the business in SV for more than 15 years and say they have never, ever seen a downturn this bad.

So don't bet the farm on a recovery with AMAT at 3x it's 1998 low. I'll be buying when it's down around 7 bucks or so.

I'll call today and get an update.

#124 acseatsri


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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:01 AM

Gold and Euro make Drudge Headlines. Just about time to add the Euro in addition to my Gold short.

Truly a brave soul! Most of these miners hit their highs when gold was at 330. 355+ now and you're short? Hope you've got some stops on that position. This is just the beginning of the bull in gold, not the end.

#125 MaxxPain


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Posted 17 January 2003 - 09:06 AM

Yeah, I feel there is a certain amount of recovery already priced in the tech stocks. Most will never be "growth" stocks again. Semi growth = economic growth = boring = lower PE.

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