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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 04:52 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – January 15, 2003

Every guy in Los Angeles has had a stint with an extreme psycho chick. Like Anne Heche. One day, she looks really hot. The next day, she looks like death warmed over. Everyone thinks that she is gay, but suddenly she marries a man. One year she’s at the top, in the Hollywood limelight. The next year, she’s wandering around farms in Modesto half naked, unable to speak.

Such volatility makes her “unpredictable”, and subject to huge mood reversals.

The Anne Heche Supermodel Stock is none other than QueerLogic (QLGC), which was recently bet on heavily for a Mariah Carey rebound.

She was presented at the various cocktail parties, the fundraisers, and the obligatory 2:00am shackups commanded by the rich, fat, bald-headed producers and directors. Hopeful hints from the agents were whispered, all of which are designed to whip her status up into a euphoric state. High expectations were created. Her desireability quotient skyrocketed, as the “players” speculate that she’s up for the next leading role, and to “be done” by the richest, most powerful eligible bachelors.

Who is going to win the Motocross Holeshot and be the first guy to seduce her?

Who is going to attempt to front run her success and elbow their way into her love life with hopes to be featured on the cover of People Magazine?

Which guy is going to position himself to be on her arm at the next Black Tie Awards Show? The sole purpose of which is to maximize his exposure to other hotter, more desireable Hollywood Starlets?

Rumors run wild, and the men chase her relentlessly.

Then the bomb drops.

Her casting call comes in, but it’s not for the leading role. Its for a second rate part in “another” movie, which may or may not make the final cut in the Pitch Meeting.

Last night, QLGC received her casting call, and it was not what people expected. Too bad. Now all those vultures have abandoned her and have hopped onto some faster moving discounted Asian Exotica, like a Chinese motorcyle companies and Internet portals like SINA and NTES, now up 800% from the lows.

It’s no wonder. Why obsess about a manic/depressive psychopath with expensive tastes when you can have a soft, smooth, compliant Thai girl for pocket change?

Buddha has been watching that overpriced QLGC Superball carefully:

“Speaking of scams, how do you like the scam earnings run on QueerLogic? Jam it up into OE Racketeering and then drown all the rats on the ship who didn't bail at high tide. Since 'Queer' is a great barometer for mood swing in the Crack Comp, what does this say as a prelude to next week? Many screamer stocks have been maxed out well into overbought and been hoisted up like giant, flabby, water retending mammaries. Now the brassier is busting some stiches on the sides and giving way slowly, inexorably to gravity and to reality. The viewing public may not like what they see when terrifying this sow's waterbags sagging to the floor drop out of these super bras. Guys buying what they think are 'a firm well toned rack' may be disappointed. They may be playing soccer with these things before long.”

Note the current MTV Spring Break Economy’s obession with sex. Ever see those billboard ads with some slinky starlet with her breasts on the verge of falling out? Certain specialty retailers are on a tear, trying to capture this latest obsession:

Bebe plans expansion, new perfume line (BEBE) by Jenny Spitz Bebe Stores said Thursday that it will add to its product offerings and add new stores. CEO and Chairman Manny Mahshouf said the chain will launch a fragrance line and return to more serious, cleaner, more sophisticated and conservative suits because the trend toward casual workplace fashion has peaked. The company said it has the potential to grow from its current 173 stores to 350 stores, and ramp up its Bebe Sports stores from five to 500, but it did not give a time period for the expansion

Five hundred stores? What’s next? Five thousand soft-porn billboards with girls in business suits?

Over on the Credit Bubble front, GE Capital is strangling under the load of structured finance jet leases, so it has no choice but to buy out an entire airline to save its own skin:

“The bankruptcy court approved Thursday a plan for GE capital, the finance unit of General Electric (GE), to take a stake of up to 5 percent in US Airways Group, Reuters reported Thursday. Terms of the deal call for GE to provide US Airways with $120 million in emergency financing. Another $360 million will go to US Airways (UAWGQ) once it emerges from bankruptcy. GE will also provide $350 million in equity to start up leases on regional jets that US Airways wants to add.”

In the meantime, Emerging Debt Bagholders may have to buy out entire countries.

Yesterday I forgot to report The Wall Struck Journal’s editorial piece on the IMF Argentina bailout. As reported here repeatedly, the Circle Jerk of credit extends worldwide. The ocean of U.S. Pesos, growing at a 22% annualized rate, is simply racing around in the Atomic Particle Accelerator, chasing each other’s tails.

“The IMF is preparing another billion-dollar bailout, but this time not for a multinational investment bank or a Third World country. This time the IMF is rescuing itself. Multilateral lenders (i.e. Hillbilly Credit Club) are close to sending $5 billion to Argentina, specifically so the country can “pay back” debts owed to the IMF and World Bank.”

“The funds will send the cash to Buenos Aires, which will turn around and send it back to IMF headquarters in Washington. Nothing will improve in Argentina, but at least the IMF will get to say the country hasn’t defaulted”

Mark’s Translation:

The highest ranking members of the Multilevel Marketing Pyramid are desperately trying to find cash to keep feeding the Ponzi Scheme. That’s because:

Argentina owes Citigroup and JPM, who owe Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs for emerging debt swap loans.

Repayment of those loans is dependent upon promises from Bermuda-based “Emerging Markets Capital Fund, LLC”, who in turn has MBIA’s risk management department on the speed dial in the event of a “sudden emergency”, or some type of a cash call.

MBI has been collecting fat fees for issuing guarantees on a mountain of paper promises throughout the globe, which have been hedged by short sales on the stock of NCEN, FRE, and other risk players. But unfortunately those short positions were just blown out by hysterical squeezes.

Squeezes on NCEN and FRE triggered E-signal alarms on the desks of the HeatMappers over at Morgan Stanley who took the tip off and decided to “chase” up these momentum stocks, because they have to book some fast trading profits and “catch up” after getting cleaned out last year from WorldCom and Adelphia derivative bombs.

The Morgan Stanley gamers, careful to protect their HeatMapping gains, have hedged their momentum plays with short positions on GE and AIG, which might backfire because Disney and John Hancock are already short these stocks to protect them against massive aircraft lease defaults. Another squeeze can ensue any moment.

In the meantime, cash calls from the IMF are causing the Pyramid to leak, and some of the bottom members are in danger of defecting, so Repo Loads drop shipped by Al Green were hurried over to Argentina, so they in turn could flip the cash back to the U.S., which was diluted by the sudden decline in the U.S. Dollar the last two weeks, and short positions used to hedge the currency loss were blown up by Al Green’s futures pumping designed to put out a fire somewhere else.

So the Hillbilly Credit Club decided to put on another hedge and went long on Gold futures instead, which subsequently dropped under $351, which gave JPM some temporary relief, which they might take advantage of to close out some of their underwater gold derivatives, but they found themselves in a battle with Barrick and Placer Dome, who have already elbowed in front of the line at the COMEX, who is wondering how they are going to deliver on these gold deliveries requested by Goldcorp, which is now systematically rejecting Uncle Buck in its “marketable securities” column on its financial statement.

That move by Goldcorp promptly sent gold back up to $358, which is now stressing the derivative books of the gold shorts, which in turn has prompted another call to Al Green’s Bat Phone.


So, as I am attempting to illustrate, the Speculative Globe is hopelessly interconnected to a Byzantine web of airball promises. Each leveraged player relying on the satisfactory “contract delivery” from another, each hoping that the Al Green Repo Dump will bail them out of a losing trade. In the meantime, these guys are all attempting to short the equities, just in case something goes wrong. And the shorts turn into horrendous squeezes, piled on by the 5-minute candle gamers. Can there be any other explanation to these the maniacal squeezes which defy fundamentals?

Everybody thinks they have an “edge” by creating a complicated hedge strategy. Which is already being used by someone else. And if the hedge blows up and goes the other direction, there are hordes of HedgeHog players willing to push the trade with the free Keno Chips dispensed daily. The way I see it, the giant squeezes we have been seeing out there must be directly related to the Debt Bubble Players attempting to “front run” a possible “accident” which never occurs. And now look at how many of these “bulletproof win-win arbitrage” strategies have backfired. Now we have a bunch of leveraged Hot Money players stuck overextended, naked, with a hedge loss, and no protection? Days before the “real” accident might show up?

And how many risk players with hedge losses are now going long to “make up” from a “mistake” that “backfired”? More losses, more desperation to “catch up”?

Note that repayment of the gargantuan pool of depreciating U.S. Dollar claims now rests on “IT Spending” or the “Resilient Consumer”. If these two fail to show signs of dramatic strengthening, then The Matrix Agents and their Publicists and Handlers are immediately summoned to spin whatever news into the most positive slant possible.

Of course, the Spin Cycle, the constant Special K stock futures jamming, the Repo Loads, and all the rest have a limit. Because the more they push the Liquidity Bubble, the higher gold goes.

Pay no attention to Iraq, N. Korea, or chemical bombs. The Pyramid is the key.

It seems the entire Speculative Globe is “hedged”, layered upon other “hedges”, which are constantly adjusted to the prevailing trends, which tend to reverse in the blink of an eye.

Oh, the horror of the financial accident unfolding.

That “Miracle Recovery” better show up soon.

All those hedges better work properly.

And those Keno Chip drops better fall into the right hands, like the credit market speculators, not the PowerTraders chasing Chinese Internet stocks or absurd stocks like Singing Machine (SMD), up 25% today.

Otherwise, we will see the Circular Atomic Particle Accelerator really accelerate.

In the opposite direction.

Gold Bars, anyone??? Or would you rather have MSFT at 10x sales?
………………..

Position Summary:

Half short on MSFT at $56

Homebuilders are on another run to the highs, so one short was closed.

New half long on KGC at $2.35

We are 38% short, 28% long, 34% cash.

Half Short:

MBI at $50
KLAC at $41
CYMI at $39
NVLS at $35
INTC at $18
MSFT at $56

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
KBH at $49 Covered at $47
LEN at $56
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28


Half Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55
BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
GSS at $1.72
WHT at $1.05
KGC at $2.35
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 The End

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 05:37 PM

Still no change in my position. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#3 soup

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 05:46 PM

is softie out? or are they still trying to put togehter the spin? DOes anyone know what ibm was expected to earn? I thought it was north of the 1.11 they reported.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#4 GregFokker

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 05:50 PM

Softy's all over the map.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#5 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 05:51 PM

MSFT declares cash dividend and announces 2/1 split....

#6 fxfox

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 05:52 PM

MSFT announces 0.47 per share

makes 1:2 stock split

gives 16 cents per share dividend! :lol:
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#7 fxfox

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 05:54 PM

JJJJJJJJJAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

YYYYYEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

MSFT sees no upturn in gloabal IT-spending! stock tumbles in AH trading!

Bulls, go and buy furniture so that i can make you a casket! :lol:

off for 2 beers

good night stoolville! :lol:
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 05:58 PM

Maria is totally lost. She's keeps wanting to tell everyone how much MSFT is up AH.

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 06:00 PM

IBM going to the cleaner. Oh boy, it's time to pop the cork!

#10 Metamucil

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 06:09 PM

Next major fib support.......37.52.....

Gap down tomorrow?

MSFT monthly.



Serious top. I'm significantly short here...the 12 month cycle is down.
IBM monthly

"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#11

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 06:09 PM

Crapvision was trying to pump the dividend and stock split story on MSFT...I still remember what I learned at business school when people talk about MSFT's valuation: it seems Big Softie was always overvalued on a price/rev and p/e basis and our great professor said that was because MSFT was a growth story - people expect it to find new investment opportunities and grow and dominate the future, and that's why a lot of the stock's value is in the terminal value. But, caveat: if the company declares a dividend, or announce a massive share buyback program - it could send a bad signal that the company is running out of new ideas on how to invest that billions of $$ cash and has to return the $$ to investors...hence its future growth prospect is dim and its terminal value should be reduced...Well, today's action really underscores this theory! I would never imagine a company like MSFT would ever declare a dividend, but they just did - of course under the disguise of the elimination of double-taxation for dividend, but I believe the real story is what I said above, from a pure corporate finance theoretical point of view.

Another point for my argument - dividend is much less flexible than share buyback: once you declare it, you have to maintain it or increase it, but can never decrease it (that'll be the death signal to investors). So tell me what if they want to fund a billion $$ R&D program or invest in a new company and they are short on cash because they have to pay dividend? They lose their financial flexibility and that increases the risk in the stock significantly.

I believe the growth and stock appreciation era for MSFT is over. I'm a 'fundamentalist' and fundamentally I think MSFT just set the bearish tone for the entire big cap tech names. CSCO and ORCL will be under tremendous pressure to also declare dividend - when they will need to preserve and use their cash in the most dire time ahead. These techies never understand finance... Great call, Mark, I wish I was short (and the stock is tanking afterhours).

#12 Slothrop

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 06:18 PM

Insightful anal-Isis, Jerry McGuire. Thanks for your wisdom. I think you're right.

#13 ShamPoo

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 06:19 PM

Yep, great call Mark, copied you a little earlier at 56.51.

Much grass Jerry M. well explained and clear. Looking forward to CSCO following suite soon.

#14 PileDriver

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 06:28 PM

HUI up 6% today.

Crap hitting the fan. I feel the momentum building. Give Ex-Lax several months to work through the system and we're due for one big bowl splasher soon.

Haywire - the needle is bouncing back and forth, the compass is spinning around - "its not supposed to happen like this, what's going on, my dreams of being a millionaire by buying tech stocks is vanishing"

This is going to be excellent!!!

#15 MrHanky

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Posted 16 January 2003 - 06:29 PM

can anyone tell me why in hell nasdaq futures are only down 8 points?.....we should be down 30-40 easy!

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