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#106 Pee Brain

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:57 AM

Gentlemen:

Real estate continues to smoke here in SoCal with buyers running too and fro. Representing buyers on a new and very nice 2bd/2.5bth townhouse. 2,650SF for $1,395,000. At that price they ought to buy two :D

Sold all bond funds and am almost completely in CD's now, laddered between 6 to 18 months. Preservation of capital, even if it's in $$$$.

I think that Shorty may be right about the market giving up the ghost here, but I'm inclined to think we are due for a very healthy bounce in both equities and bonds. Will be keeping an open mind about a short fund when that run's it's course.

I still cling to the belief that the 10 year bond is in a bull market, unless  TLT can take out the 87-88 area. Watching and waiting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


yup, looked at a little MFD deal in mar vista-palms area; prices are scary - sold real clsoe to ask. in some arenas, like smaller reatil, there is actually a shortage of product. lots of money flowing around, but i can tell yuou - work has slowed, property quality has declined and borrower quality is not what it once was... it wont turn in a day. psychologically, i feel for people w/o a home; to continue renting is to risk "never" being able to buy - anyone who bought in the last few years has made a ton of dough, so they feel "stoolpid". then if you buy and prices decline or you lose your job, you're screwed. on the SM side, there is almost nowhere to hide and if china dumps, the commodes will go too. USD might be "appreciating," but the funnymentals are kinda weak, zombies - who knows? PMs will continue to get knee-capped if the USD resurgence continues? its tough to sit in cash and IR that is less than inflation.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#107 jickiss

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 01:01 AM

jickiss is back!

and

Dear Shorty: Bravo, Indeed!

for sure, the bears have been through hell, trapped (so to say) within the confines, until just very recently, of the jickiss Triangle.

but, the days of fierce reality therapy are about to be visited upon all of the Bulls,
as the Bears approach the promised land, the land of the acres of diamonds.

Shorty, your post is so Excellent, that it mirrors, as an Observation, the great lines from Julius Caesar, spoken by Brutus, in Act IV, Scene 3:

Brutus:

We, at the height, are ready to decline.
There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves
Or lose our venutres.

your jickiss was working on income taxes this pm.
and the mail, too.
in the mail was a letter from jickiss' prep school, "suggesting" that all graduates sponsor a "worthy student."

since the year that jickiss graduated, the tuition is up 25 Times.

Gold is up about 4 Times.

Santa Monica Real Estate must be up 50 Times. Maybe 100 Times.

The mindless prattle that passes for "thought" in Merica must be up 1,000 Times.

Just like Shorty says, the tide is going to carry the Bears
(and your jickiss adds, the Gold and Gold Miner Bulls)
ON TO FORTUNE

Hold Fast. For when the jickiss Triangle collapses, and the Shorty Bear Market arrives in full force, all M2Mers will witness market changes that have not been observed in over 75 years.

The days of the Bears are at hand.
This is not the time to lose nerve.

jickiss!
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#108 jickiss

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 01:30 AM

jickiss is back!

dear M2Mers:

them that labour under some illusion related to the idea that higher short term interest rates will STOP the GOLD BULL MARKET

really ought to ask themselves just how costly the higher rates, looming dead ahead, will be to the budget of "uncle." after all, who has engineered the greatest amount of debt to be short term debt???

as a tool, (your jickiss bot, for the first time GLD on thursday), TA correct use of the coming MACD cross, in the following chart, (made at alaronfuturescorp dot com) should help to raise funds to replace all taxes paid.....

Attached Images

  • au_ready_set_03_25_2005.jpg

"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#109 martialcomp

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 01:45 AM

If this data is correct, then there are millions of weak handed home owners out there. 43.8 million to be precise. In fact, some would argue that there 81 million weak handed home owners. That is over 50% of the total home ownership in the US.

"23% of all homes purchased in 2004 were for investment (Source : National Association of Realtors)
13% of all homes purchased in 2004 were vacation homes (Source : National Association of Realtors)
There are 72.1 million owner-occupied homes in the US, followed by 43.8 million second homes of which 6.6 million are vacation homes. There are 37.2 million investment units (compared to 72.1 million owner-occupied homes): (Source : 2003 Census)
32% of all mortgages are ARMS (Source : Mortgage Bankers Association)
9% of the mortgages in 2004 were subprime or made to people with poor credit. That's $517 billion in dollar value
Zero down loans exceeded $90 billion last year.
More than a third of all mortgage applications in Q1 2005 were for ARMs. ARMs could turn out to be dangerous for most consumers in a rising interest rate environment.
$400 Billion : That's the value, by which the housing stock has grown in value for each year over the last four years."

http://housingbubble...le_archive.html

As anyone can see, there is absolutely no shortage of supply...

#110 BAREister

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 02:15 AM

"The US Federal Reserve is behind the curve and scrambling to catch up.  Inflation risks seem to be mounting at precisely the moment when Americas current-account deficit is out of control.  Higher real interest rates are the only answer for these twin macro problems.  For an unbalanced world that has become a levered play on low real interest rates, the long-awaited test could finally be at hand."

Roach's Latest

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

After estimating that a 'neutral' Fed Funds rate would be 5.75% (a full 3.00% higher than today), Roach concludes --

Should the Fed fail to deliver on the interest rate front, I believe that the US current-account correction would then be forced increasingly through the dollar.  And that would redirect the onus of global rebalancing away from the American consumer onto the backs of Europe, Japan, and China.  Call it a beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy defense -- pushing the burden of adjustment onto someone else.


Roach is right. Long before the Fed Funds rate hits 5.75%, some highly-levered component of the Ponzi economy is going to snap. The Fed will go into 'rescue mode' -- flooding the economy with liquidity. And that means sacrificing the dollar.

By sacrificing the dollar, the US can 'socialize the cost' onto the rest of the world.

:ph34r: Death to the dollah! :ph34r:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Yep.



Since that is the least painful solution FUR we Yanks, it will, almost certainly, be the preFURRED™ alternative/chosen path.

That all ASS(_)_)umes, of course, that the preceding anticpated dislocation is containable in the method contemplated, which, given the mASS(_)_)ive "gearing" of the pASSt decade or sew, may SNOT materialize, or may ASSume perverse and uncontrollable and wildly unanticipated dimensions. (The Law of Unintended Consequences writ large upon the international financial superstructure, ass'twere.)

American financial engineers, in their boundlessly irresponsible if not purely craven creativity, will, no doubt, seek, somehow, to FURst shift as much of the burden and now-latent crisis engenders onto the backs of UDDERS (read FURRY FURriners) as they can, no matter WHAT parlous scenario(s) transpire(s). A signal question is whether, in such event, they will ultimately/actually get away with it, and the answer to that lies in what the great German admiral Tirpitz once described, aptly, ass(_)_): "the Darkness of the Future".

Pending the emergence of such future drama(s), they, in the meantime, seek to shift, with the obsequious deference of our national legislature, the onus of their excesses and banal cupidity of the past quarter century onto the backs of the pliable and gullible millions, HERE - witness, ass EXHIBIT A, the advent of the incipient bankruptcy "reFURm".

#111 FeedFool

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 05:11 AM

What we have is selling volume drying up unlike the 2k drop where increasing volume made manipulators uneasy.

One more up then down should flush out all the sellers and weak hands then the game will begin.

Watch 1425 during the next down turn.
.

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#112 machinehead

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 11:26 AM

American financial engineers, in their boundlessly irresponsible if not purely craven creativity, will, no doubt, seek, somehow, to FURst shift as much of  the burden and now-latent crisis engenders onto the backs of UDDERS (read FURRY FURriners) as they can, no matter WHAT parlous scenario(s) transpire(s). A signal question is whether, in such event,  they will ultimately/actually get away with it, and the answer to that lies in what the great German admiral Tirpitz once described, aptly, ass(_)_): "the Darkness of the Future".

Pending the emergence of such future drama(s),  they, in the meantime, seek to shift, with the obsequious deference of our national legislature,  the onus of their excesses and banal cupidity of the past quarter century onto the backs of the pliable and  gullible millions, HERE - witness, ass EXHIBIT A, the advent of the incipient bankruptcy "reFURm".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

After delivering himself of this amazing monologue, HRFF unwinds at an Easter Egg hunt:

"They don't ultimately/actually call me an egghead for nothing."
Posted Image

source: http://us.news2.yimg...lla_ohab103.jpg
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#113 FeedFool

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:07 PM

Sir John laws gone get cold feet come May and he wont do a dam thing. This is what commodities chart is saying; also he isnt applying the new higher rates.

Thinks about this for a moment, if one is holding old stocks then it's going to worth more money if there is inflation. That may be the reason why retailers are not tanking.

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#114 BAREister

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:07 PM

j

well, your jickiss is sick and tired of pointing out that the big problem in Merica is NOT the ss checks being sent to the really needy, but rather it is the looming problem of the giant pay checks and pension checks promised to the totally non-productive state and federal and local union-ized crims that have been taking advantage of the system for years. 



your jickiss sees a giant, viscious struggle over them that DO NOT PRODUCE, who constitute the "public sector" unions, versus the rest of the Sheeple who have been shafted big time.  This is a bigger issue than almost any other issue, IF THE POWER OF COMPOUND INTEREST IS HONESTLY ADDRESSED.

what does anybody think about these issues?
jickiss!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


We are already in a posture where the private sector can't afford to pay it's pension-related promises on the grand scale. The gummitup is next. If the doolor goes to HELL and STAYS THAT WAY would they be worth much, anyway?

The conflict you presage is just one of many - SNOT to mention generational warFUR™.

KAOS "dead" ahead. The pols will be hopelessly equipped, temperMENTALly™ to cope - witness the ennui emerging over Social Security reFURm™ in it's incipient stages, nonetheLESS.

Igor wants to know what "retirement" means. He thinks few will attain it, as currently envisioned, and Boomers will have to work until they keel over FUR good.

Ain't that RITE, Igor?

Yetttthhhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


one school district in PA has already hired lawyers to send cease and desist and lawsuit threats to members of public who were "threatening" the pubic school adminaSStraitors and teachers at school bored meetings -- clearly public is angry over the kickbacks and high retirement pensions indexed to inflation, many of the leachers retire with 80% salaries plus full benefits, adminaSStraitors pocket even more

some city garbage collectors in CA pocket $300,000 lump sum upon retirement PLUS pension

these things have a way of being evened out -- when one group of people is raping another -- the rape victims eventually catch on and fight back -- some are civil, others are not

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Dunno if your use of the word "BORED" was intentional or not but Igor thinx it iz FUNNI.

"BORED", indeed....

Lawyers issuing threats to beligerent parents?

NO!!!!!!!!!! HEAVEN FURfend™!!!!

(Heaven WON'T FURfend™, sadly...)

LASSED nite HRFF went out to fatten up at an Asian restaraunt (he sees so many rolly polly Asians of broad girth .....SNOT!!!! he was inspired to partake of cuisine of that ilk) In the background was not the usual/obligatory horrible (to Western eerz) sing-song TV program blaring from a tube up in a corner near the ceiling with Asian music and drama in an incomprehensible tongue, butt, rather, in its stead, "BARE"ly audible in the background, an insipid, sappy call-in radio station redolent of the VERY old TV program of HRFF's and TwoScrew's youth called "Queen FUR A Day" in which some benighted soul would pour FURth her FART-wrenching travails and then be showered with material goodies, something which TV audiences in America in the 60's (or wuzzit the 50's) found cathartic, butt which BARE found bizarre (and still does). (Did Art Linkletter host that thing?) Callers call in on this radio program to ....to....welll.....er....UMMmmmm.... "BARE" their souls, and get their requested songs of solace aired. One forlorn woman's rap went ASS(_)_)follows™ in requesting a song from the syruppy, sappy host: "WELLLllll.... I USED to think life was going to be constantly getting better (she was obviously a Boomer in distress) BUTT(_)_) after a DIVORCE, an ILLNESS and LOSING MY JOB and the JOB market being so lousy, locally (for middle aged unemployed women) and the GENERAL ECONOMY being SNOT much BETTER, and, instead of being able TO ENJOY MY RETIREMENT it now looks as though I will HAVE NO RETIREMENT and WILL HAVE TO WORK FURever and....and...and....yada yada yada.
In a word, her epiphany that she had little to look FURward to henceFURth was inspiring some publicly aired angst, which, presumably, a little Phil Collins would soothe.

Why, the emotional pandering/banality/self-pity of it ALL would have been enuff to make HRFF LOSE HIS APPETITE and SNOT CLEAN UP HIS PLATE, butt(_)_) it didn't MATTER and BARE, undaunted, bravely, SNOTwithstanding the EXTENTUATING atmospherics, proceded to devour his repASSED™ , FUR he had already nearly lost his appetite EARLIER in the day when he read TwoScrews' DEATH TO THE DOLLAR post in Stoolville's M2M.

snorjt

#115 FeedFool

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:20 PM

NDX Chart

Looks it could be moving down into May time frame or top in May

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#116 BAREister

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:22 PM

American financial engineers, in their boundlessly irresponsible if not purely craven creativity, will, no doubt, seek, somehow, to FURst shift as much of  the burden and now-latent crisis engenders onto the backs of UDDERS (read FURRY FURriners) as they can, no matter WHAT parlous scenario(s) transpire(s). A signal question is whether, in such event,  they will ultimately/actually get away with it, and the answer to that lies in what the great German admiral Tirpitz once described, aptly, ass(_)_): "the Darkness of the Future".

Pending the emergence of such future drama(s),  they, in the meantime, seek to shift, with the obsequious deference of our national legislature,  the onus of their excesses and banal cupidity of the past quarter century onto the backs of the pliable and  gullible millions, HERE - witness, ass EXHIBIT A, the advent of the incipient bankruptcy "reFURm".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

After delivering himself of this amazing monologue, HRFF unwinds at an Easter Egg hunt:

"They don't ultimately/actually call me an egghead for nothing."
Posted Image

source: http://us.news2.yimg...lla_ohab103.jpg

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Igor finds the above pictorial MOST DISRESPECTFUL of his mASS(_)_)ter™ and is
DISTRAUGHT.

He is advising BARE to "FIght FUR with FUR" and to "make the FUR fly" ass(_)_)t'were™

THe sign points the way to the offices of Mr TwoScrews, wherein he, whilst indulging in illicit conceptual hanky panky, and simultaneously adopting a "No Tell" policy regarding same, "conceives" of FURther "PSYCHO bearish" strategies:

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#117 machinehead

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:23 PM

... some benighted soul would pour FURth her FART-wrenching travails ...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

MH delivers a 'FART-wrenching' experience to the BARE
Posted Image

source: http://x12.homestead...s/fart-face.jpg


MH :ph34r: :ph34r: What does HRFF stand for, anyway?
==== "His Royal Fart Face"
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#118 Knucklehead Smith

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:35 PM

Gentlemen:

Real estate continues to smoke here in SoCal with buyers running too and fro. Representing buyers on a new and very nice 2bd/2.5bth townhouse. 2,650SF for $1,395,000. At that price they ought to buy two. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Not all of SoCal. A little sanity has come into the San Diego market.

San Diego County Housing Prices Slip Again

"The overall median price for February 2005 dropped $6,000 from January to $472,000, a number not seen since July. It was the second month in a row to see a decline...

broker Jim Abbot attributed the trend to apartment developers feeling the end is near for the current housing boom and choosing to convert sooner rather than later.

"I don't think there's any question that the tempo of this market has slowed and sellers who are successful in it recognized it early," he said. "They're responding to a lack of offers on their properties and lowering the prices."

He said he counsels sellers to lower prices 5 to 12 percent after six weeks on the market...

As for sales, San Diego County also registered the biggest decline in closed transactions among Southern California counties, down 12.4 percent to 3,442 sales...

Earlier this week, UCLA's Anderson Forecast issued an economic report for California in which a real estate downturn figured prominently in the prediction of a recession in the not-too-distant future.

"Price appreciation is already slowing after a record run-up in prices over the last three years," wrote senior economist Christopher Thornberg...

Market conditions vary widely from neighborhood to neighborhood, and Poway stood out in February as one of the few places where single-family resale houses were selling for a lower median than a year ago. The median price of $570,000 was down 6.4 percent from $609,750 in February 2004.

The Kensington, Normal Heights and University Heights area, which makes up the 92116 ZIP code in San Diego just east of state Route 163 and south of Interstate 8, was another popular area that saw a year-over-year decline last month, down 2.5 percent to $494,500."

#119 fxfox

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 12:55 PM

here is an example that in some stocks the bull whioch began in 1982 never really ended:

Anheuser-Busch (BUD; way cool symbol if you ask me :lol: )

look at the monthly EMA 50, price went above it in 1982 and with one short lived exception in 1994 never traded below it again. Right now price is at that EMA, thos who beleive that the Bud-Bull wont die will buy here, but maybe they should better look at these neg divs with MACD, o la la! This is only the TA aspect, if BUD uis fundamentally a good short i doubt.

Posted Image
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#120 fxfox

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 01:02 PM

damn it, how can i direct link BigCharts? In the past this was possible, doesnt it work anymore? Please help. Thanks!
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'





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