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#46 wndysrf

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Posted 24 March 2005 - 11:03 PM

13 days in a row on a sell signal...

Thanks, depends.....

Very frustrating, as I keep shorting the wrong stocks that refuse to move........

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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#47 wndysrf

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Posted 24 March 2005 - 11:27 PM

Asian Exotica

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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#48

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 12:28 AM

In response to easy money, 2003 and 2004 were good years to make money by holding a core position long stock indexes plus selected individual stock longs. There were some good shorting opportunities during this period, but they were the exceptions not the rule.

In response to tight money, 2005 and 2006 might be good years to make money by holding a core position short stock indexes plus selected individual stock shorts. There will be some good buying opportunities during this period, but they probably will be the exceptions not the rule.

As always, the big money will be made holding on patiently to winning positions with the trend for the entire period, not trading in and out for pennies.

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#49 huey9

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 12:56 AM

[quote name='wndysrf' date='Mar 24 2005, 04:44 PM']
KMRT getting killed AH, for some unknown reason....

3rd highest traded on Island....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[/quotyeah big charts is showing up$7.69 durin g hours
ddown $.99 after hours.
getting killed.

damn astock is worth $60.00

#50

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 01:20 AM

So after two years of easy money debt expansion, pumping, jamming, goosing, bullhorning and fraudulent manipulation of stocks the market is now on the edge of a cliff -- with tight money, debt contraction and rising interest rates about to push it over the edge.

A crash is possible but playing a crash scenario is not necessary and probably not the best approach. For example, shorting stocks and holding patiently is likely to be much more profitable than buying put options.

Remember, on the way down the margin requirement on your short position decreases in addition to increasing equity from profits to short more, so there is always more leverage available pyramiding on the way down than on the way up, even without using options. (In a bull market on the way up profits in a margin account allow you to pyramid the position but the margin requirement is increasing).

Just sell and hold. Wait, and wait, and wait. Give your positions time to make you money.

The next bull market won't start until after several consecutive interest rate cuts!

Don't cover.

Wait paitently for the inevitable rallies to fizzle out.

Then add to short positions for the next leg down.

The name of the game is not to score a big win here and there, but to ride a snowball slowly downhill, growing your wealth all the while.

There is plenty of leverage available just shorting indexes.

If you do want to pick individual stocks, avoid those whose current fundamentals are relatively strong and future prospects are bright, no matter how much you hate them. Some stocks of dominant companies with lots of cash like MSFT and INTC will be hurt by the weakening stock market but have limited downside.

Short stocks whose current fundamentals are relatively weak and future prospects are iffy. Flakier, shakier companies like RIMM and YHOO are likely to suffer sharper drops.

Also avoid stocks like KMRT that are still involved in relatively fresh young pumping manipulation -- short others that are already in the dumping distribution phase. Timing is everything. Don't fight the professional well-connected criminals. When they are done stealing from the company and have moved on, it will be safe to short. All in good time.

When you see stocks suffer sharp drops:

Do NOT get sucked into buying them because they appear cheap compared to their recent price level. Price levels mean nothing. The trend means everything. When people are losing money in a stock they want out regardless of price. Don't buy stocks in a downtrend. You will be fighting against the tide, and you will lose.

Also, do NOT be afraid to short stucks that have already dropped, like FNM. When you feel like you are too late and have missed the boat, you are probably right in the middle of an established trend with a lot more to go. The trend will not end until you are shaking your head in disbelief at how far the price has gone.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Good luck fellow Stoolies.

$$$

#51 beardrech

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 01:27 AM

Casinos refuse to sell off on this decline.......

Very frustrating for the bears.........

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<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I really believe Casinos are,in their own way, as important as HMO's:just as HMO's provide succour to those physically afflicted, so do the casinos provide spiritual hope to those financially bedeviled--

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: As jackiss would say All the World is a gigantic racetrack with 6 Billion Centaurs jockeying for position,the stampede united in one collective belief,all on their way to the finish line,niagra falls,where, and when one arrives, will ultimately determine who are the lucky ones that get to go over the edge first and flow downstream in a barrel

#52

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 01:34 AM

Casinos refuse to sell off on this decline.......

Very frustrating for the bears.........

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<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I really believe Casinos are,in their own way, as important as HMO's:just as HMO's provide succour to those physically afflicted, so do the casinos provide spiritual hope to those financially bedeviled--

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: As jackiss would say All the World is a gigantic racetrack with 6 Billion Centaurs jockeying for position,the stampede united in one belief on their way to the finish line,niagra falls,where, and when one arrives, will ultimately determine who are the lucky ones that gets to down in a barrel

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Those are just typical charts of stocks that have not yet rolled over, but will -- they show the left half of a mirror image. The bear will maul all.

As for gambling, it's just financial masturbation. Sad that so many are addicted.

#53 FeedFool

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 02:56 AM

Looks like those hedgehogs has gone wild.



trin just posted this on b4 - mind boggling:
Program Trading Statistics

March 21-25† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 71.4%
March 7-11† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 52.8%
February 28-4† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 53.7%
February 21-25† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 54.4%
February 14-18† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 53.4%
February 7-11† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 49.5%
January 31-4† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 52.1%
January 24-28† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 52.1%
January 17-21† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 55.9%
January 10-14† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 59.5%
January 3-7† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 56.4%
December 27-31† † † † † † † † † † † † † † † 59.6%

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


About time for a Black Box melt-down?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



#54 FeedFool

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 05:07 AM

[url="http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050324-thu.html#anchor0""]http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/diges...l#anchor0"[/url]


Largely for that reason,† :mellow: I still donít think Americaís central bank is up to the task at hand.†  In the face of disruptive markets or growth disappointments, this Fed has† :huh: repeatedly opted to err on the side of accommodation.† :mellow:† I suspect that deep in its heart, the Federal Reserve knows whatís at stake for the US -- and for the world -- if the asset-dependent American consumer were to throw in the towel.† Unfortunately, that takes us to the ultimate trap of global rebalancing



So letís venture an educated guess: Say, for purposes of argument, that the neutral real federal funds rate is 2%.†  I didnít pluck that number out of thin air: Itís approximately equal to the 1.9% long-term average of the inflation-adjusted policy rate since 1960.† It makes some sense -- albeit far from perfect sense -- to define this metric as the average short-term real interest rate that, by definition, would be consistent with average outcomes for growth and inflation.† But thereís now a problem: Neutrality no longer cuts it for a Fed that is behind the curve with respect to the twin concerns of inflation and current-account financing.† Having played it cute and waited too long, the Fed must now aim for a ďrestrictiveĒ target in excess of 2%.† Again, for expositional purposes, put this level at 3%.† Then add in some upside to the core CPI of about 2.75% and, presto, the Fed needs to be shooting for a nominal funds target of around† :blink: 5.75% -- or more than :D† double the current reading.† That amounts to another 300 bp of tightening.† If the Fed stays with its measured approach of doling out the tightening in 25 bp installments, then it would finally hit that target 18 months from now in September 2006.† Unfortunately, given the long and variable lags of the impacts of monetary policy, the twin genies of inflation and the current-account adjustment might be well out of the bottle by then.† If that were the case, the 3% target on the real funds rate would translate into something higher than 5.75% in nominal terms.† Little wonder that talk is now rampant of stepping up the pace of tightening.† Remember 1994?


under 1150 all bets are off stays over 1160 then target price in 2006 ?????

Then Huge wave down to 600???

Double Bubble trouble??????

Lets see what happens around 6th & 27th of April

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#55 machinehead

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 09:32 AM

Just sell and hold.  Wait, and wait, and wait.  Give your positions time to make you money.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Post of the Year.

Stated by somebody who knows what he's talking about.

This is some of the best free advice you will ever get. ;)
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#56 machinehead

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 09:35 AM

His Royal Fur Face: the quintessential 'Bigfoot' investor
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source: http://seattlepi.nws...0day7_clown.jpg
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#57 Jimbo

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 09:51 AM

Shorty

great post - very Livermoreish

So after two years of easy money debt expansion, pumping, jamming, goosing, bullhorning and fraudulent manipulation of stocks the market is now on the edge of a cliff -- with tight money, debt contraction and rising interest rates about to push it over the edge.

A crash is possible but playing a crash scenario is not necessary and probably not the best approach. For example, shorting stocks and holding patiently is likely to be much more profitable than buying put options.

Remember, on the way down the margin requirement on your short position decreases in addition to increasing equity from profits to short more, so there is always more leverage available pyramiding on the way down than on the way up, even without using options. (In a bull market on the way up profits in a margin account allow you to pyramid the position but the margin requirement is increasing).

Just sell and hold. Wait, and wait, and wait. Give your positions time to make you money.

The next bull market won't start until after several consecutive interest rate cuts!

Don't cover.

Wait paitently for the inevitable rallies to fizzle out.

Then add to short positions for the next leg down.

The name of the game is not to score a big win here and there, but to ride a snowball slowly downhill, growing your wealth all the while.

There is plenty of leverage available just shorting indexes.

If you do want to pick individual stocks, avoid those whose current fundamentals are relatively strong and future prospects are bright, no matter how much you hate them. Some stocks of dominant companies with lots of cash like MSFT and INTC will be hurt by the weakening stock market but have limited downside.

Short stocks whose current fundamentals are relatively weak and future prospects are iffy. Flakier, shakier companies like RIMM and YHOO are likely to suffer sharper drops.

Also avoid stocks like KMRT that are still involved in relatively fresh young pumping manipulation -- short others that are already in the dumping distribution phase. Timing is everything. Don't fight the professional well-connected criminals. When they are done stealing from the company and have moved on, it will be safe to short. All in good time.

When you see stocks suffer sharp drops:

Do NOT get sucked into buying them because they appear cheap compared to their recent price level. Price levels mean nothing. The trend means everything. When people are losing money in a stock they want out regardless of price. Don't buy stocks in a downtrend. You will be fighting against the tide, and you will lose.

Also, do NOT be afraid to short stucks that have already dropped, like FNM. When you feel like you are too late and have missed the boat, you are probably right in the middle of an established trend with a lot more to go. The trend will not end until you are shaking your head in disbelief at how far the price has gone.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Good luck fellow Stoolies.

$$$


timoleon

#58 An Ant

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 10:39 AM

Shorty,

Thank you for a great post.

#59 Silky_Xlax

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 11:13 AM

Lets see what happens around 6th & 27th of April


Feed,

Why those dates?

I have a strong Fib confluence on Apr 4/5 which should result in a change in trend - whether up or down depends on the trend into that date...

TIA.

#60 GregFokker

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Posted 25 March 2005 - 11:18 AM

Shorty,

Thank you for a great post.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Second that.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty






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