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#136 Hiding Bear

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 08:43 PM

Since that is the least painful solution FUR we Yanks, it will, almost certainly, be the preFURRED™ alternative/chosen path.

That all ASS(_)_)umes, of course, that the preceding anticpated dislocation is containable in the method contemplated, which, given the mASS(_)_)ive "gearing" of the pASSt decade or sew, may SNOT materialize, or may ASSume perverse and uncontrollable and wildly unanticipated dimensions. (The Law of Unintended Consequences writ large upon the international financial superstructure, ass'twere.)

American financial engineers, in their boundlessly irresponsible if not purely craven creativity, will, no doubt, seek, somehow, to FURst shift as much of  the burden and now-latent crisis engenders onto the backs of UDDERS (read FURRY FURriners) as they can, no matter WHAT parlous scenario(s) transpire(s). A signal question is whether, in such event,  they will ultimately/actually get away with it, and the answer to that lies in what the great German admiral Tirpitz once described, aptly, ass(_)_): "the Darkness of the Future".

Pending the emergence of such future drama(s),  they, in the meantime, seek to shift, with the obsequious deference of our national legislature,  the onus of their excesses and banal cupidity of the past quarter century onto the backs of the pliable and  gullible millions, HERE - witness, ass EXHIBIT A, the advent of the incipient bankruptcy "reFURm".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



FURRY FURriners become alarmed ass(_)_): they realize the they will be fleeced by Yankee dollar policies the BAREister ™ described:

http://news.yahoo.co...o0&e=2&ncid=832

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#137 anotherone

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 10:05 PM

I bought some Martha Stewart towels at KMRT and they tore apart when I used them, her stuff is all crap IMO


They're just not designed for bears. :lol:
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#138 wndysrf

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 10:17 PM

Next Week's Yearnings:

Among the earnings of note next week, Micron Technology Inc. reports fiscal second-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday.

The Boise, Idaho, chipmaker should post results in line with Wall Street expectations, but its May quarter outlook could disappoint, according to Smith Barney anal cyst Glen Yeung.

Yeung said the precipitous decline in prices of dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, in March could pressure consensus estimates. DRAM is the one of the most common forms of memory used to store data on computers.

The Thomson First Call average estimate is for second-quarter earnings of 14 cents a share on revenue of $1.21 billion. For the third quarter, anal cysts polled by First Call are looking, on average, for earnings of 13 cents a share.


Posted Image

In the retail sector, two rivals in the consumer electronics space go head-to-head on earnings, with Best Buy Co. and Circuit City Stores Inc. slated to release quarterly results ahead of the market open on Wednesday.

Best Buy pre-announced on March 3 that fiscal fourth-quarter earnings would likely come in at the low end of, or below, its prior outlook of $1.56 to $1.66 a share due to higher promotional costs and an increase in inventory markdowns.

It said sales for the quarter rose 9 percent to $9.2 billion. The Thomson First Call average estimate is for earnings of $1.55 a share.

Higher promotional costs will also be a factor in Circuit City's fourth-quarter earnings even though the company pre-announced a solid 5.3 percent jump in sales for the period, Lehman said in a note to clients.

"While fourth-quarter sales exceeded our expectations and clearly accelerated in January-February, we believe the company was more promotional and, as such, we have maintained our fourth-quarter estimate of 56 cents a share," said anal cyst Alan Rifkin.


Posted Image

Other reports likely to focus investor attention include Walgreen's, which is expected to earn 48 cents a share on revenue of $11.03 billon, according to the average estimate of anal cysts polled by Thomson First Call. The drugstore chain reports on Monday.

Posted Image

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#139 Charmin

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 10:21 PM

"So there was still more support this week for my warnings through the winter to enjoy the rally while it lasts, because the market is likely to experience a serious decline when its favorable seasonal period ends in a few weeks – if not before. And that profits this year will likely have to come from positioning for the downside, in short-sales and bear-type mutual funds. "
Sy Harding - http://www.streetsma....com/comm3.html



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A reading of 80 for instance means that over the past six months that stock is stronger than 80% of all Stocks, a reading of 99 means that stock is stronger than 99% of all stocks. Only stocks with a closing price above 10 and at least 6 months of trading history are evaluated.

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interesting..
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#140 wndysrf

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 11:00 PM

Fari Hamzei reporting via e-mail:

DV weighted Put/Call ratio on the TLT is over 24

DV weighted Put/Call ratio on the XLF is infinite (huge number of puts, no calls).

Lots of bearishness on the bonds and financials......

Put your stops in........

FWIW........
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#141 BAREister

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 11:18 PM


Since that is the least painful solution FUR we Yanks, it will, almost certainly, be the preFURRED™ alternative/chosen path.

That all ASS(_)_)umes, of course, that the preceding anticpated dislocation is containable in the method contemplated, which, given the mASS(_)_)ive "gearing" of the pASSt decade or sew, may SNOT materialize, or may ASSume perverse and uncontrollable and wildly unanticipated dimensions. (The Law of Unintended Consequences writ large upon the international financial superstructure, ass'twere.)

American financial engineers, in their boundlessly irresponsible if not purely craven creativity, will, no doubt, seek, somehow, to FURst shift as much of  the burden and now-latent crisis engenders onto the backs of UDDERS (read FURRY FURriners) as they can, no matter WHAT parlous scenario(s) transpire(s). A signal question is whether, in such event,  they will ultimately/actually get away with it, and the answer to that lies in what the great German admiral Tirpitz once described, aptly, ass(_)_): "the Darkness of the Future".

Pending the emergence of such future drama(s),  they, in the meantime, seek to shift, with the obsequious deference of our national legislature,  the onus of their excesses and banal cupidity of the past quarter century onto the backs of the pliable and  gullible millions, HERE - witness, ass EXHIBIT A, the advent of the incipient bankruptcy "reFURm".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



FURRY FURriners become alarmed ass(_)_): they realize the they will be fleeced by Yankee dollar policies the BAREister ™ described:

http://news.yahoo.co...o0&e=2&ncid=832

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Igor!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™?

Come HITHER, lad!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

Behold this pictorial TRAVESTY, Igor! They are DEMEANING TIGERS, your mASS(_)_)ter's alma mater's mASS(_)_)cot!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!!!!

SHADDUP, Igor! HRFF duzn't like the inFLECTion in your VOICE!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

THAT'S better, Igor. We have too many SMARTASSES(_)_)(_(_)(_)_)™ around theze heer partz ASSitIZ, alreddy!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™, ohhhh YETTHHHH!!!!

This individual lacks the PROPER quotient of RESPECT and DECORUM and deFURence™ FUR tiger motifs, Igor!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

That's TRULY SHOCKING, Igor.

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

UDDERly reprehensible.

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

Deplorable, even.

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

Put him on the list with Mr TwoScrews, Igor - at ONCE!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

And that DOWNtheDRANO guy, TOO!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

That's a good lad, Igor. So agreeable u r.

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

#142 alceringa

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 12:18 AM

A lawyer known as Bare-ister,
Bought a fine new suit for his Easter.
"It's a real beaut!"
"I look so cute."
"But, how now do I pee, Sir?"

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"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson

#143 stanley

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 01:26 AM

--------------------------------------------
Turning Points 03/27/2005
by Andre Gratian, http://www.safehaven...rticle-2799.htm

An excerpt

A sharp correction of the intermediate trend which began in August 2004 is underway, but it still has not made a normal 50% retracement. To do this, prices need to continue correcting to 1144.
With short term cycle lows bottoming as far out as the first week in April, and the daily oscillators showing no divergence, it is likely that the short-term down trend will continue for a while longer.
Structurally, this is probably an "a" wave of an a-b-c correction. There are more important cycles bottoming in late June, so one should expect that the entire correction will last into that time period.
-----------------------------------------------

agree his middle term view; But, keep my mind open for his long term call.
To refer the wave count quickly, here is a re-post of my chart (Posted on: Feb 27 2004, 07:00 PM) , the wave series after 1-2-3-4-5 is a-b-c. (upper one)
Posted Image
the dispute is how high the wave series can climb after the termination of the on going wave a-b-c? in Andre's article, he wrote "The long term trend turned up in October 2002 in conjunction with the 12-year cycle. It is now reinforced by the 10-year cycle which turned up in the Fall of 2004. A top is likely in late 2005, or early 2006.". I doubt.

#144 FeedFool

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 01:37 AM

You’re saying foreign investors would rather buy Treasuries and ABS than make direct investments in this country. Okay, but so what?
What that points to is that the “love affair” you hear some people talking about between foreign investors and U.S. assets is really more a case of foreign central bankers doing what they have to support their currencies by recycling dollars. And if they do the same thing for the next year, do we have $80 oil? Today you can clearly see the price effects on global commodities prices. The CRB Index has just been on the fly. So if the central banks want to continue this recycling, we’ll see what happens with global commodities, with the Asian boom and the emerging market boom. We’re finally at the point where the inflationary bias globally is pretty intense. If we continue to feed that animal, there are going to be consequences.

Isn’t that precisely what you see Greenspan and company trying to do? Asset inflation is surely more palatable than deflation.
Oh, sure. But I’m not certain that they appreciate the dynamics of mortgage credit—how it will continue to expand. I have never really sensed that there is an appreciation of that.

What’s wrong with mortgage credit growing?
Well, take California, where home prices climbed 20% over the past year. That means that this year, mortgage credit there has an inflationary bias: More credit will be created simply because of the prices of the homes have gone up. Even if the number of transactions is flat this year with last, 15%-20% more credit will be created. And home prices have risen across the whole nation, which will feed more speculative excess, more transactions and more credit creation. Even Freddie Mac, which has been moaning about falling originations and fewer refinancings, estimates total mortgage credit growth of 11.9% this year (vs. a record $1.19 trillion, or 12.8% increase, in 2004). That is the dynamic that I’m not sure the Fed fully appreciates. Yet it is a key dynamic because all of this new mortgage credit is creating distorted spending patterns, and, especially, over-consumption. Yet the Fed doesn’t seem to have a problem with it. From what I’m reading, they seem to be expecting a natural slowdown in the growth of mortgage credit this year. But that’s just not the way that bubbles work. It won’t gently slow just because rates have risen a little bit. Inching rates up in baby steps isn’t going to curb mortgage borrowing, no way. Speculative psychology is so strong in housing, they’re really going to have to ratchet rates up.

And deliberately pop another bubble? No way.
Look, whether you do macro credit analysis, or just old school inflationary analysis, if you look at the Z.1, you can see why my thesis is that this thing is a runaway train heading for a financial accident.

There you go with the gloom and doom again.
I know, but when I do the analysis, that’s where I come out. I just don’t see anything to slow down this impending train wreck. What I mean is, it would take exorbitantly higher rates to slow this down, but those sorts of rates, in and of themselves, would probably produce the accident. So to me, this is a runaway train at this point. Everyone can get all bullish because they see liquidity everywhere, but that is kind of textbook, too; that’s the way credit bubbles suck everyone in at the end.


Thanks to trinharder for posting this at B4theBell.

Its a great piece, better reading that the usual Credit Bubble Bulletin.

For those who missed it....

Doug Noland Interview

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



#145 BAREister

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 01:49 AM

Igor!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™?

There's been a MARKED DETERIORATION in the milieu, heer, Igor; the very GESTALT of Stoolville itself!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!!!

Ah, PERCEPTIVE FELLOW that you are, Igor!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

So quick on the uptake!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!!!

Alceringa has REAPPEARED, Igor!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

And he's fallen under TwoScrew's dASSturdly spell! Posting irreverent px's of HRFF yet AGAIN, Igor!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!!!!

Shut UP, you STOOPid IMBECILE!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™....

This is a MOST DISTRESSING event, Igor!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!

Especially after such a PROTRACTED HIATUS, Igor!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

Alceringa hASS, in the meanwhile, clearly developed RECIDIVIST TENDENCIES!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

We must, thereFUR, disabuse him of such IMPIOUS notions, Igor!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!!!

Igor, your mASS(_)_)ter wants you to get to the BOTTOM of all this!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™!!!

Not NatASS(_)_)ha's bottom, EITHER, Igor! That lASSt response of yours possessed a tenor that was CLEARLY lacivious, you BOUNDER!!! Your mASS(_)_)ter is addressing you metaFURically(_)_), that's all. Is that PERFECTLY CLEAR?????

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™....

Very well, Igor! Carry on! Take all appropriate counter-measures, including the gathering of appropriate pictorial/satircial ripostes.
We shall fight FUR with FUR!!!

Yettthhhh, mASS(_)_)ter™.

#146 FeedFool

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 02:24 AM

Has oil taken gold’s place as a store of value?
Not really. But gold still has the issue of the central banks’ inventories of gold, and how much they are selling. So there are still supply issues in gold. But clearly, financial players around the world are now saying,  :blink: “I will trade some of my dollar balances for crude because I need the crude.” The Chinese are clearly going to buy oil and any commodity they can trade their dollar balances for, without causing too big of a crisis. Why wouldn’t they?  :mellow: These are smart people. They don’t need the dollar balances. They buy them because someone has to buy them. At any opportunity to trade them for copper or zinc or anything, they will trade. Everyone wants to act as if the global environment never changes. The reality is that it has changed profoundly, in just a few years. What I am contending today is that the period of “disinflation” has ended—ironically, just when some have been trumpeting that the Fed has won the battle against inflation. We have very highly liquid competitors now. And we are bidding against them for whatever we want or need. Meanwhile, the foreign credit systems that used to be highly constrained by the strong dollar—by the fear that if they did anything risky, speculative financial flows would desert them for the safety of the U.S.—have been utterly unleashed. Now, it’s like everyone has a checkbook backed with U.S. dollars and can do whatever they want. There is no  :P restraint on any credit system now. Be it China, India, or Brazil,  :D these countries can create all this credit and finance domestic booms without having to worry about a run on their currencies. They can inflate for awhile, and that will ease their transitions into a flexible currency system. Again, in the weak dollar now—the dollar’s vulnerability—gives credit systems around the world almost a hall pass to do things that they weren’t able to do five years ago or even three years ago.  :mellow: They’re no longer worried about a currency collapse throughout Asia. They are worried about the currencies melting up. This is an inflationary bias that many anal cysts have missed. And you see it in Latin America today, too. These are very, very important developments. Maybe financial speculation will keep all these markets levitated. I’m not saying that can’t happen. But if it does, :unsure:  we’re going to see wild price movements, shortages of all sorts of things, and things will get very strange.






Thanks to trinharder for posting this at B4theBell.

Its a great piece, better reading that the usual Credit Bubble Bulletin.

For those who missed it....

Doug Noland Interview

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



#147 alceringa

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 03:06 AM

I've watched the McCllelan oscillator and summation index on and off for over 20 years. Sometimes trading it has worked well for me and sometimes not.

What I have learned is that I am not clever enough to guess when the MACSUM is going to turn and reverse trend. It has no respect for anyone's ideas about what over bought/sold is. It turns when it turns, period.

The markets may bounce here or they may not. But for now, the Nasty MACSUM is clearly saying "stay short".


http://stockcharts.c.../McSumNASD.html
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson

#148 FeedFool

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 03:12 AM

Chart

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#149 FeedFool

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 03:20 AM

Butt wipes

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#150 Jimbo

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Posted 27 March 2005 - 03:24 AM

Bonds, REITS, and Builders

What happens next???


Wyndsrf

You asked the same question about Gold and Oil some time ago.

This time the answer is in the opposite direction

Time for the great carry trade implosion.

Carry trades thrive on cheap credit and die on expensive credit.

Its been a great ride providing vast profits to the carry traders

Expensive credit arriving at an economy near you.

If I were a corporate I would be grabbing all the cheap long term money I can.

Investors are giving it away.
timoleon





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