The Trading Pit
40 replies to this topic
Posted 14 April 2005 - 02:21 AM
Crude Oil. Still looking for 50 before any significant bounce. But it could hang around the 55 ema for a bit before the next leg.
US Dollar. Threatening to rally. Indicators are saying it's possible but not likely. We've got two Euro trades recommended, one is if the Dollar rallies, the other is if it falls apart. Could go either way but odds say down.
Russell 2000 E-mini. If ever a chart said more down is on the way... which, of course, means expect a rally. Right around the 200 day moving average. Don't expect it to hold. But it is option expiration this week, so price could just be pinned in this range until Monday.
Posted 15 April 2005 - 03:14 AM
Russell 2000 E-mini. Nice down day. But if we're down hard in the morning, expect the possibilty of an afternoon rally. Could be one of those fast, steep bear killers. In the meantime, no support anywhere in sight on the daily...
...but on the weekly, we're right at the 55 ema. This should provide a bounce, or at least a consolidation. If not, it would incredibly bearish. Ultimately, the stock market is toast. But you all knew that.
Silver chart. Looks the the RUT chart form yesterday. Ugly.
Dollar trying to make another run (off a bit from when this captured). Above 85.40, loa.
Posted 17 April 2005 - 11:47 PM
Monday April 18...
Crude Oil. 50 is still a reasonable target before a significant bounce. The issue is that even if this is a garden variety correction in the middle of a bull market, 45-47 is probably a pretty good target before the next sustained leg up.
Russell 2000 E-mini. That is one ugly chart if you're long this market. On the daily chart, we're into an air pocket, no support any where nearby.
Russell 2000 E-mini. Weekly chart. 100 day moving average support at 560. Doesn't mean it can't bounce before there, in fact, it wouldn't be surprising to come back up and re-test the break of the trend line and the 55 ema at around 592.
US Dollar. Trying get a little frisky on Sunday night. Stops on the Euro and Swiss Franc trades are in place. Right now it's probably just the Japanese interveneing, we'll have to see what the Europeans have in store later on Sunday night. If the Dollar wants to rally, we'll be more than happy to stop and reverse short the Swiss Franc.
Silver. All depends on the Dollar. Looks like down.
Want to leave you with one last chart. SPX monthly. Logical targets if this is the next leg down in this bear market that started in 2000 (and still isn't over). 840 or 747 or so are the first tragets, the .50 and .62 retraces of the rally since the October lows. More likely is 445 where this C leg will equal the A leg (March 2000 - Oct 2002). The 450 area is also where the parabolic leg of the equity bubble really got going back in 1995. All bubbles, when burst, go back to where they started. Or lower (corrections do tend to overshoot). There are no exceptions. There are no new paradigms. "This time" is never different. The arguement could be made that the bubble started earlier and we'll go even lower. It's possible, but 450 seems about right. That would put the DOW around 4500 and the Nasdaq pretty much out of business. Time target? 18-24 months. We'll re-assess when we get there.
Posted 19 April 2005 - 01:10 AM
Crude Oil. Bouncing a little in the access market. While May is trying to make a bottom, June doesn't seem to be as close. No reason to cover, no reason to go long yet.
Russell 2000 e-mini. Well, it didn't crash. Still thinking that price has to retest the trend line and moving average break down before any further declines. In the intemediate term, down doesn't look done yet. It doesn't preclude a pretty spirited bounce, but any rally should fail.
US Dollar. Trying to hang on to 84. Chart says probably not (baring any unforseen intevention). Below 83.50 and we'll most likely see new lows i.e., below 81.
Gold is starting to look interesting.
Posted 20 April 2005 - 02:12 AM
CRB futures chart. Looks like a bottom -- 50% retrace from the highs and a perfect ABC corrective wave down where A equaled C. Right now at the 21 ema. It should get over it on Wednesday. The bias in the recommendations will be to the long side until this pattern changes or negates itself.
Ten Year Note. End of rally
Not recommending anything. Yet. Just saying. EOR.
Russell 2000 E-mini. Impressive up day. Back above the down trend line and the short term moving average. We'll have to see how long the Intel euphoria lasts. The idea is that the best price will be able to do is make it back to about 605-7. We're hedged, so we'll wait and see.
US Dollar. Very weak. Will probably try and hang around the 55 ema for a day or two. If it can't, the decline should be fast and furious.
Soybeans. Powerful move up. Now up another 4-5 points in the access market. This move should be for real.
Posted 21 April 2005 - 12:07 AM
US Dollar. Looks like more down.
The weekly is about to give a sell signal. The last one aborted, this one could as well, but it is unusual for two sell signals to fail back to back. Just as a side note, price has not been above the 55 ema on the weekly in over 3 years. That, is a downtrend.
Russell 2000 E-mini. Came back to test the uptrend line and failed. Should be more down.
Weekly view. Should be a lot more down.
Coffee. Looks like this leg up is just getting started.
Weekly. A shallow correction (only a .38 retrace) is often a sign that the uptrend (or downtrend) is very powerful. Should be a lot more up.
Posted 22 April 2005 - 01:33 AM
Crude Oil. Slowly creeping up. Like this better than the huge up days, this is more sustainable. Above the moving averages as the indicator gives a buy signal. Plenty of room to run on the upside.
Russell 2000 E-mini. Well, that was a surprise, not so much the bounce but the strength. On the daily, 605 looks to be the key area. Close to giving a buy signal. Thought there would be more down after Wednesday's decline. still do, but... never argue with price.
Weekly chart. 607 and then 617 look to be areas of significant resistance. If there is any follow through to Thursday's rally, 617 looks like where price is headed. We don't think there will be but we've been wrong before. Above 605 or so and we'll be looking to get long, aside from just keeping the option hedge.
US Dollar. The real test is up around the 21 ema at 84. Indicator starting to turn up on the daily. Was able to rally back and is now sitting just above support.
And wants to roll over on weekly. The next few days will tell.
Soybeans. Nice steady up day. We like. Up a couple of cents in the access market.
Posted 25 April 2005 - 01:42 AM
Crude Oil. Lots of room to run. Up about 40 cents in the access market on Sunday night. No apparent weakness in this chart.
Russell 2000 E-mini. Wild day on Friday. A near collapse followed by an amazing short covering/black box rally to cut the losses in half. The Dow futures got gunned back to almost even between 4:00 and 4:15. Somebody didn't want the market with a tripple digit loss on a Friday. Hard to tell it the rally was real or just someone trying to keep the market from falling of a cliff. Monday should tell. If more down is in the cards, price shouldn't get much above 603 on any rally.
Weekly chart. Could not close above the 55 ema. Weak. Not to say it couldn't get a pop from here but all the moving averages are rolling over. Not a good sign if you're long.
US Dollar. Getting a little frisky on Sunday night, but still below the short term moving averages and barely above the 55 ema. Have to see if these signs of life last until morning.
Weekly chart. That's an early sell signal. 83.45 is key on the downside, 83.85 on the upside. Right now in the middle.
Coffee Weekly chart. Charts don't get much more bullish than this. And it looks like the sell signal has aborted. Should be a powerful move up.
Posted 26 April 2005 - 02:05 AM
Russell 2000 E-mini. Price is still below the intermediate term moving averages and the uptrend line. But that is a buy signal in the indicator panel. If it goes up, we'll stay hedged.
US Dollar. Could have been just a test of the break down from the 21 ema. So far on Monday evening, not looking too healthy. No buy signal to match the Euro and Swissie almost but not quite sell signals.
Soybeans. Disappointing day. Gave too much back. Although, up a couple of points in the access market. Needs to hold 630 or it could get ugly.
Cotton. Stopped out of the short hedge for a loss. Biggest up move in months, mostly due short covering caused by a larger than expected number of delivery notices posted for May. Lets see how much it gives back on Tuesday. Hate these big up days, they rarely hold.
Posted 27 April 2005 - 02:39 AM
Russell 2000 E-mini. Huge battle to try and hold the uptrend line. So far, bulls are losing the battle, But with the month end statement print coming up on Friday, expect more spirited defense. Though we suspect it's a losing battle.
US Dollar. Indicators about to give a buy signal. Getting quite a bump in the middle of the night.
Posted 28 April 2005 - 01:41 AM
Crude Oil. Below 50.50 and the next target should be around 47-48. Expect some support around 50.
Russell 2000 E-mini. Still below the uptrend line. Still can't get above the short term moving averages. Still a short.
Silver. If we were right and the last month was just a sloppy, corrective up move, there could be a move down to the mid 6's on the way.
US Dollar. Buy signal. A little bit of traction and this could really get going. GDP numbers on Thursday. That could change everything.
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