Jump to content


Photo

Flameout


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
97 replies to this topic

#31 rog

rog

    Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,891 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 08:58 PM

Watch Samsung's Capex numbers which will be released tonight in Seoul. INTC is the number one consumer of semi equip, Samsung is number two. The rest are largely irrelevent.

Samsung has been adding DRAM capacity for the last three years. Obiviously DRAM is going nowhere fast. Given MU recent blow up and capex cut and <50% internal capacity utilization, Samsung may now be ready to slow down this mini arms race. Also, I could buy a completed .13Micron DRAM fab that is still warm for $0.07 on the dollar. In fact there are seven for sale.

Should Samsung in fact cut capex by 25% (the same magnitude as INTC) imho the supermodels would implode in short order.

#32 Jorma

Jorma

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,418 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 08:59 PM

I'm entirely too comfortable being short. Very short. I peek at the market a few times a day now, and worry less. Of course no 200 point blast offs this week.

It seems almost impossible that the suddenly rather boreing action can continue. Doc alludes to the possibility and I am in love with the idea of several weeks of slow bleeding. It just can't be that easy. Can it?

I know funnymentals are BS but, but, but.... there is a new trend. It's the political one. Bush's numbers are trending lower, relentlessly. They should be rising with the troop deployment, but are not. Serious bussiness. Serious market slides are almost always coincident with political discontent. Does one lead the other, who knows. I just comment that this trend is bearish for the markets. Or rather it sure as hell isn't bullish.

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog

 

The Treasury

could burn down

We jammin still

Full Extreme   Ultimate Rejects


#33 Guest_The CoinGuy_*

Guest_The CoinGuy_*
  • Guests

Posted 15 January 2003 - 09:00 PM

Thanks Piles,

I remember Vesselin saying something about hitting after posting a pic(or was it a link ;) ), so I did, and it posted my post....a little early. He's on top of this stuff, I apparently am not.

A little more practice is in order, I might even start throwing up a few of my charts on IDS, if things work out. I've been wrestling with Metastock for about a month now. Think I'm getting the hang of it. Then I'll toss the pencil.

Gotta Go.... :D

The CoinGuy

#34 Guest_AssMaster_*

Guest_AssMaster_*
  • Guests

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:04 PM

My Dad always buys about 100 shares of stuff when it's very cheap. He told me to buy tech at the low in 1998. I told him to buy gold in fall 2000. Neither of us listened hahaha.

Anyway, he does okay and at least he listens when I rant about stocks declining into 2006-2010 while gold advances. He thinks gold will never go above 600. I beg to differ. :)

But he's cheap and frugal but the worst thing is his house is in Podunkville, Oklahoma. Of course, with the coming oil/natural gas boom that could be not a bad place ot be.

#35 The End

The End

    Anything is possible!

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,101 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:10 PM

http://www.capitalst...ct=ST&f=2&t=699

Sg's chart. Not what everyone thought one ids. A friggin' thing a beauty. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#36

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:22 PM

Samsung will spend 6 trillion (US$5.2 billion) on capex in 2003. -- From Bloomberg.com just minutes ago. It appears they plan to spend $820 million out of total capex on semi equipment - this is already disclosed this morning:

"Samsung to spend $820 million on equipment
By Semiconductor Business News
January 15, 2003
URL: http://www.siliconst...EG20030114S0012

SEOUL -- Samsung Electronics Co. is planning to invest about $820 million upgrade and expand its existing memory chip production lines in 2003, according to Dow Jones Business News.

“We will use the investment to upgrade and expand our memory chip lines to stay competitive in the dynamic random access memory business," the report quotes the chip-maker as saying in a statement to the Korea Stock Exchange Tuesday (January 14, 2003).

An investment of about $180 million is to be made at Samsung Electronics' memory chip lines at its Kihung plant, while the remaining $640 million is to be invested at both Kihung and the company's Hwasung plant, the report said."

I don't know how this $820mm number is compared to street expectation, but the total 6 trillion won capex figure is below what Morgan Stanley anal cyst had expected - he thought it could hit 6.34 trillion, a 30% increase from last year.

Just don't know how the market will react to these numbers...

#37 brian4

brian4

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,361 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:34 PM

Here Sheepie, Sheepie, Sheepie: Da Boyz are still buying PUTS- SPX LEAPS-Today-Calls 4-Puts-947-BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Trade Safe!

#38 PileDriver

PileDriver

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,448 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:39 PM

http://www.sovereign...dates/index.cfm

RYVNX looks like a low-risk point to buy.

#39 Tig 'Ol Bitties

Tig 'Ol Bitties

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 868 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:39 PM

JPM replies to the rumor that they are heavily short gold.

NEW YORK (AFX) - JP Morgan Chase, answering charges by a pressure group that it may be facing excessive risks in the gold market but not disclosing them, said its exposure to gold including derivatives is less than 10 mln usd.
JP Morgan was responding to allegations by the two-person Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), a pressure group which alleges bullion banks and central banks are conspiring to rig prices in the gold market.

continued...

risk exposure in gold derivatives less than 10 mln usd

#40 Fartpolio Manager

Fartpolio Manager

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,931 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:42 PM

Samsung will spend 6 trillion (US$5.2 billion) on capex in 2003. -- From Bloomberg.com just minutes ago.  It appears they plan to spend $820 million out of total capex on semi equipment - this is already disclosed this morning:

"Samsung to spend $820 million on equipment
By Semiconductor Business News
January 15, 2003
URL: http://www.siliconst...EG20030114S0012

JM, if this was disclosed this morning, it's in the stocks...

I don't see much to get excited about... AMAT was down a buck, KLAC completed an ABC down today, most of the chip equip stocks were hammered during the week ahead of INTC...

Fact is, the SOX just won't go down, even with the horrendous news we're seeing... even with the 3+% decline today, the SOX is still up over 10% from the first of the year...

I still think we're going to see all these stocks decline into March, I'm just thinking this isn't it YET.

Another thing to consider is that stocks generally go up around earnings time, for whatever reason... unless it's October anyway.

Finally, I'm giving the stoolies fair warning on semiconductors... I'm a headhunter for the semiconductor industry.... after 911, there was a normal cycle of budgets that gets approved for the year starting on 1/1/2002 that was cancelled... among those budgets are staffing budgets... This year, 1/1/2003 came and the budgets are kicking in... I'm not saying that these stocks might not go down between now and March, but business is telling me that after the next low (symetrically due in March), I'd think about shorting something else, because even with all the capital equipment weakness, the merchant chip side of the business has leveled off... I'm expecting 3 flat quarters followed by a modest increase for Q4 in 2003. Stock market precedes business by 6 months (rule of thumb)... need I say more...?

Neutral...

Only holding very long miner positions...

#41 PileDriver

PileDriver

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,448 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:44 PM

well the BPI's came down from the Nov/Dec "high-risk" zone and just did their obligatory bounce at the ~60 area. Now its crapper time!

http://stockcharts.c...et?obj=ID128959

Strap on your seat-belt for the ride to hell. :grin:

#42 GregFokker

GregFokker

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15,013 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 10:53 PM

Rog, thanks for the reply on JPM. It had been at the back of my mind for nearly a year, and the answer was under my nose.

Just read that article about GATA and JPM, and was able to glean nothing from it. JPM put out partial information, just a teaser. But, at least the issue is gaining some exposure.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#43 SupplySider

SupplySider

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,368 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 11:01 PM

JPM bullish on bullion - Predicts $430 in "Coming Years"

That has me worried. I want the "experts" to be negative on gold since they're almost always wrong.

#44 The End

The End

    Anything is possible!

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,101 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 11:03 PM

Ahhh.

My boys are basicaly all in agreement. The last time that happened, i made 7 times my money in 5 weeks. Perhaps a few more days and then poof go da bulls. Maybe not even that long


I have no clue as to what i'm typing. Am i typing?, i thought i was dreaming.




I hope i'm not believing this too much. :shocked
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#45 SupplySider

SupplySider

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,368 posts

Posted 15 January 2003 - 11:18 PM

NEW YORK (AFX) - JP Morgan Chase, answering charges by a pressure group that it may be facing excessive risks in the gold market but not disclosing them, said its exposure to gold including derivatives is less than 10 mln usd.
JP Morgan was responding to allegations by the two-person Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), a pressure group which alleges bullion banks and central banks are conspiring to rig prices in the gold market.

Doesn't the mainstream "media" do a wonderful job trying to infer/depict those who challenge the status quo as just a few kooks? I'm surprised they didn't use the "right-wing" adjective. Too overt, I guess.





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart