97 replies to this topic
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:26 PM
Mark's Market Commentary - January 14, 2002
I will have to apologize for the brief commentary. My computer flamed out and I was unable to watch much of the market today.
More cracks in the Credit Bubble are being noted in The Wall Struck Journal.
Who is holding the bag on the telecom debt bombs hidden in inside Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO’s)?
“Banks shielded themselves from much of the fallout by using highly engineered financial products to shift part of the risk to myriad other investors: insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, and an assortment of other unlikely buyers.”
“The risk is out there somewhere, it didn’t all get buried in a mine in Azerbaijan”, says Simon Harris, head of corporate banking at Oliver Wyman.
The insurance companies who have bought these CDO’s are the same guys writing credit insurance to others’ losses on CDOs and derivatives. The Hillbilly Circle Jerk continues.
“Meanwhile, the market for derivative products continues to expand. The overall size of the global credit-derivative market has grown from $180 billion to nearly $2 trillion the last five years.”
In the meantime, nobody really knows where all of the losses are. Maybe they are out there, but nobody has recognized the losses yet. That’s why Al Green has been pumping, to make sure all the bagholders have enough cash so they don’t have to start selling underwater speculative investments to meet their obligations.
“So much corporate debt, so many defaults. Chalk it up to elastic accounting rules that companies can easily game to mask their losses.”
“Recently, many large banks have been crowing that they successfully shifted much of the corporate debt-related risks off their books through complicated packages of sliced and diced side deals.”
As for the market action, I was waiting for Dan "The Greaseman" Niles to issue a buy signal on INTC with a $30 price target. That would have triggered a definitive sell signal.
Unfortunately, the signal never came, meaning that the top is probably not in yet.
Buddha has some choice words about this matter:
"In my opinion, all these crooks like Niles who are still front and center and scamming 24/7 should be put on notice that they are being monitored daily by the FBI. That includes that Kumar guy out of Palo Alto and all the so called self proclaimed prominent dog track gamers posing as anal cysts. Any anal cyst still in prominence should just have a tail put on him. End of story."
"Grubman, of course, was just the ugly tip of the iceberg and the fact that they didn't dust off a room for him in Rikers with Leroy and Big Dwayne is indication enough that Grasso and the rest are hoping to go back to business as usual as quickly as possible."
"What is needed is about a dozen moles in these Houses of Ill Repute, complete with wires on them at both the trading and anal cyst desks with complete logs of conversations at up and downgrade junctures and during earnings announcement scams. This would blow the whole Market wide open and create sudden and seismic clearing to 50% discount levels inside of about a month of revelation."
"Of course this will never happen. The fox does not perform gastro intestinal surgery on himself in order to remove chicken eggs and bits of breast and thigh. And Grubman will find some other venue of griftage now that he has paid his fine and is underground. Probably resurface with a multimillion dollar book deal inside of two years and then sign on in Reno to do magic tricks at Harrah's and run a prostitution ring out of Lake Tahoe for old business associates like Tin Man Welch and that Global Crossing psychopath."
As for today's market action, too difficult to tell if this is the beginning of a slide. Note that we have a small bull flag consolidation going, which could be marking time for another screamer run to the upside based on some Special K-induced euphoria casting call announcement out of QLGC.
"As discussed yesterday, a favorite Racketeering strategy is to reverse spike of Wednesdays of the infamous OE week. True intention of Hoods and Bosses is down, they have tipped their hand now and are in process of vaporizing some retail call positions. Again, why is gold up as predicted? Because it has been sold for 3 days and is once again trading right off of rotation in equities. Takes no ghost come from the grave to tell thee that Horatio."
"In my opinion what is most important about today is its the first good signal of operational intention on part of Capone, Nitty, Lansky and the other camel haired coats that are working the waterfront as we speak. Up until now all we have had to go by is using the radar of COT reports which show them lining up short and against idiot retail which is accumulating calls. This changed with the huge candle into the false open this morning."
"Does the death grind begin from here? Does Gandalf begin his death dance with the Balrog and wrestle the hideous monster all the way down into the pits of Isengaard? Once the psychological 1400 is taken out I think so. Pigmen should hold it over this level thru end of week. Divergence on 5/15 reads to 1410 or so, then the next battle begins. Pig-Orcs flooding in from Mordor should attempt to deceive at these levels early next week."
As usual, the real "New Bull Market" in gold stocks is acting properly. Those who sold yesterday or put tight stops in were blown out at the end of yesterday's trading and the gap down on the open today. And the vultures who have been waiting to get in on a severe dip piled in, sending the gold shares in a sharp reversal to the upside. I don't think the correction is over, but I think Friday will be the last day to load up as long as the downside volume doesn't accelerate.
I was tempted to short one of the miners as a hedge yesterday. That would have proved to be disasterous.
No change in positions.
Full commentary will resume tomorrow.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:31 PM
Thar she blows.
YHOO down a buck!
Off to a basketball game.
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:38 PM
Yhoo guiding down slightly.
QLGC managed to better Rev est by $400K and parlayed that into a $0.02 earnings suprise. Thats some leverage. More at eleven.
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:38 PM
No changes in my position.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:50 PM
commited the rest of my new funds to BEARX. Close enough for government work.
I sit all snug in my bunker while the perma-bulls roam the equity streets all happy, hopeful, and clueless .. moments before the bomb drops.
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:52 PM
sheep keep buying yohoo after market, down to 18.3 now back to 18.85
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:54 PM
GM will be a stinker tomorrow, i guess.
Finally auto madness comes to its end. In germany BMW and DaimlerChrysler do underperform quite well
Good night. (can say that to GM too )
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
Posted 15 January 2003 - 05:59 PM
So QLGC beats by two cents, ditto YHOO, AAPL flat.
I'm sure QLGC and YHOO have been fairly priced to reflect their great growth potential. Right?
Hmm, that reminds me again to pick up more baloney at the supermarket.
Of course I'm caustic!
Posted 15 January 2003 - 06:01 PM
they jam yohoo back to 18.97 now, i guess it may go bak to even
Posted 15 January 2003 - 06:17 PM
I thought I heard Maria on crapvision say that although Niles lowered his 03 eps outlook on INTC from .65 to .60, he was doing it only because of being in a higher tax bracket, or some nonsense to that effect. She also quoted him as saying that he's an aggressive buyer of INTC on any weakness. Maybe not a buy, but he's still touting the POS, isn't he?
Did AAPL lower guidance on Q1 '03 ?
Posted 15 January 2003 - 06:20 PM
JPM bullish on bullion - Predicts $430 in "Coming Years"
JP Morgan's anal cysts say gold's narrowing trading range to
US$3/oz from US$7/oz "portends a breakout in coming days or
weeks" and that only a breach of the key US$330/oz, then
US$316/oz supports "would reverse the current uptrend."
Gold must now stay above supports at $350.50 and $345/oz,
as breaches of those would signal that the bull run has stalled
in the short term, while a bearish correction unfolds, the report said.
"Until then, stay long," the anal cysts recommend,
suggesting opening long positions at US$352.25/oz.
Posted 15 January 2003 - 06:26 PM
JPM has been putting out bullish recs on gold since it was below 300. When I made my first buy at 292/oz, it was a JPM target of 325 or 330 that was credited with lifting it above 300 or so. Seemed strange then and still strange now, if the 700 story derivatives tower story is true.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 15 January 2003 - 06:26 PM
I wouldn't worry too much about those gold positions. Seems it'sa safer bet to stay in than to be out.
UPDATE 2-White House sees deficits for "foreseeable future"
(Adds details, background)
By Adam Entous
WASHINGTON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's
budget director said on Wednesday he expects the U.S.
government to run deficits for the "foreseeable future," with
shortfalls of $200 billion to $300 billion this fiscal year and
next that could be the biggest on record.
Posted 15 January 2003 - 06:27 PM
everytime I see those bullish anal cysts on Poovision I think of a Rugby song:
"He's an a-s-s-hole, he's an a-s-s-hole,
yes he is, yes he is,
he's a f*#king a-s-s-hole
he's a f*#king a-s-s-hole
yes he is
yes he is"
Posted 15 January 2003 - 06:31 PM
I thought he was on Crappervision yesterday after they announced and put a $25-30 price target on it. If not, it was one of those other "Indian doodz"!
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