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Pulling The Trigger


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#31 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:34 PM

I have found the Hurst method to be unusually good with gold and the gold stocks, so I don't agree that it's diffcult to call. The long term trend is up. However, some very long intermediate cycles are in a sideways down phase that has lasted for months and will last for more months.

It's called, spell it together with me class:

A C C U M U L A T I O N

That's right class, accumulation.

Well, Doc, that sounds a lot better to me than "Gold could go to $200 but probably not"... Tanks...

#32 rog

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:35 PM

Volkswagen sales down 17% yoy in November

KIA sales Up 10% yoy in November (who the hell is KIA?)

#33 PileDriver

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:37 PM

very true, and the Dow could go to 36,000 !!!

Hell, anything is possible. :D

#34 The End

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:40 PM

Fart,

I don't pay Neely for his gold comments. Cleary, he is better at calling the spx. :D
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#35 DrStool

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:41 PM

I made this statement in last night's Anals:

"However, on negative Feed days, all markets are likely to come under pressure. "

The theory is about to be tested this afternoon.

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#36

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:42 PM

12:30 PM CST CBOE P/C

Equity 0.71
Index 0.96
Overall 0.76

Attached Images

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#37 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:42 PM

TXN Earnings upside alert surprise last nite, even bigger surprise today TXN Red on the day - .74. Is good news bad news again???

#38 esahlin

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:43 PM

Regarding gold: Ive been reading several writings by Jim Sinclair. He thinks the e-waver Prechter is a god, but disagrees with Prechter's low $200 level regarding gold. Sinclairs been trading just gold for 30 years or more and he has developed a very sound and positive picture both fundamentally and technically for gold in the near future. Anyway, Sinclair's is analysis is an interesting bullish bias.

#39 HardAssets

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:43 PM

Guess this cycle upside cycle is pretty weak, huh. :)

#40 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:45 PM

Fart,

I don't pay Neely for his gold comments. Cleary, he is better at calling the spx. :D

You got the right price then on what his gold comments are worth... :D

#41 longOnUranus

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:51 PM

I agree we are in an accumulation phase with gold, but I look at a lot of it as unwinding of paper. I have had a VERY difficult time taking delivery of physical gold with my last 2 orders (sold some last week). I think XAU is reflecting a pullback in price, possibly retesting 300 (I see no way itll go to 200); That will be my re-entry point for physical. Considering a few paper transactions in the interim.FWIW.

#42 simple guy

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:53 PM

The Elliott Wave Principle is a direct reflection of mass social psychology, or as we call it, social mood. Social mood is not random nor is it cyclical, with any sense of fixed periodicity. However, it is patterned. It moves from abject pessimism to sheer ebullience and back in a three step forward, two step back fashion, the combined total of which is five legs. Each leg is called a “wave.” The stock market is the most direct and immediate meter of social mood, so therefore one can readily access the patterns of social mood through studying the stock market. Since human beings do not change, the patterns that they go through also do not change. Moreover, these patterns occur in all time frames. Mathematically one would say that the Wave Principle is a fractal, with self-similar patterns at all degrees of scale. R.N. Elliott was the first to observe and catalogue these very specific patterns that recur as this progression unfolds from pessimism to optimism and back. Yet these patterns have variances in their quantitative expressions. In other words, there is infinite variability within a set form. As an example, observe a tree. No tree is exactly alike, each possessing a differing array of branches formed in varying manners. If you were to move very close to one of the branches and look at just a 3 inch by 3 inch square, you might have some difficulty recognizing what you see as a tree branch. Yet if one steps back and looks at the whole, it is easily identifiable as a tree. Similarly, a cloud has infinite variability but is still easily identifiable as a cloud. In fact, despite infinite variability, they are amazingly similar. The same is true of market patterns. Sometimes a pattern, when viewed in such a narrow way, may not appear clear. Some people therefore dismiss that pattern as “subjective,” and of little value. I have found that in actuality, if one will step back and view the whole of the form, the pattern often becomes crystal clear.

#43

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:53 PM

OK, COMPX 1458.68 is close enough to the 1462 target. It is allowed to go down now. :D

esahlin, from the little I've seen from Jim Sinclair, I am very disappointed by his so-called analysis. I've caught him making a couple of times gross mistakes for an experienced technician. It seems that his gold bullishness is clouding his reason.

My indicators agree for the near term with what Doc is saying about gold. Longer term, he's predicting a jump, too, but I don't see that far, so I can't tell you whether I agree or disagree with that. But near-term, gold isn't going anywhere, I'm afraid, today's little bounce notwithstanding. Both $200 and $2000 for POG seem unreallistic to me. I'd say, a trading range between $310 and $325 for the rest of the year.

Regards,
Vesselin

#44 rog

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:55 PM

GM Nov sales down 18% yoy. Truck sales (171,862) were down 26 percent; car sales (137,401) were down 6 percent.

Audi sales up 10% yoy to 7k, not quite making up the slack

#45 DrStool

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Posted 03 December 2002 - 02:56 PM

HA- The Afternoon cycle map looks on schedule, doesn't it? I hope it stays that way. :mellow:

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