Welcome to "The January Effect"
294 replies to this topic
Posted 10 January 2005 - 12:06 AM
Just saw this video showing the raw power of the tsunami...wow..
Posted 10 January 2005 - 12:12 AM
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
Posted 10 January 2005 - 12:15 AM
now the standard sm reaction to having your currency slammed?
if you'll excuse a little more funnymental talk, weaker European currencies may help Europe's exports more than a weak $ would help US exports. Of course the dollar rally will have to last more than a week for that to happen.
Posted 10 January 2005 - 12:33 AM
...and so far tonight, that doolah 'rally' looks over already...
evenin' BM !
So what are you looking at for tomorrow?
I'm expecting CAT to move again. Volume doubled during the first 3 days of downmove...then a pause for a day, now I think she wants to go to 90-91. But that's only if the dow is flat to down; since CAT does tend to move with the dow a lot.
Also looking at PKZ for another good half-point scalp...we've got oil creeping up tonight. I've had a couple of good runs with this one...where it moved nice and smoothly, making for a relatively calm hour until exit...
And I'm still holding a short position in SBUX and Scamazon; and some cheap long-shot putz on SMH. I'm real interested in seeing where the semis go from here...
edit; I also picked up 100 shares of GG afterhours on Friday, when I happened to see a single 100-lot sitting there at 13.60 ask. It 'feels' like a bottom to me, on GG. If it starts moving up from here, I plan to leg into more between 13.75 and 14.25.
Posted 10 January 2005 - 12:39 AM
KW - congrats on the big win...and that's coming from an Irish fan.
Here's what I see first week in bondland...
Recent outperformers weakend a couple ticks in corporates
EMG was the soft link on issuance and $ strength
Curve is insatiable in its flattening trend - we recently took off our trades looking for a reversal.
Structured product en fuego - we bought the new Ford ABS deal big and the damn thing priced tighter and then tightened on the break. It substantianted the rest of the universe and we used that to sell into.
FNM spreads continue to grind tighter - no weakness
Global savings continue to buy US bonds...hard to see that reversing soon.
Posted 10 January 2005 - 12:56 AM
once the dollar rally ends shouldn't we expect the market the rally big time also??
Posted 10 January 2005 - 12:59 AM
hey dozer! just got back home, 6 hrs of driving today to a family thing. so haven't looked at much yet. I agree on CAT, could test 90 soon if the market doesn't rally. I'd look for a bounce there, but if it doesn't, the next few points could be quick. PKZ could rally from here, I'd watch it longer myself, but my timeframes are generally longer than yours (days / weeks not hours). I'm slowly moving towards more short term stuff, but think it will be a while before my trades are under an hour.
I took some profits on semi shorts last week but want to be ready to add more. SOX is approaching 400 and INTC is going to make some lies up this week, so a bounce is possible. Don't think it will get too far though.
Posted 10 January 2005 - 01:10 AM
hey BM, sounds like a fun day.
not that I'd have wanted to be out driving today....12" of new snow here...and I'm hearing on the scanner that the maroons are doing their usual thing out on the roads...
yah, CAT will want to bounce at 90. But it sure does have air underneath, eh? I keep looking back to end of October....damn thing was only 80 just a couple months ago! big big climb, that'll all want to come off if we have a dropping mkt for a while...
And if the mkt bounces, it's always good for a point scalp in an hour.
I'm envious of you brave swing-trade guys who grab the full 20 or 40% of a week or two move. That just doesn't let me sleep good tho, so I'm trying to be mostly flat each night.
The SMH bounced pretty solidly on Friday, but did begin dropping off EOD.
We'll see if that's for real, or if the bounce was just gathering steam...
Posted 10 January 2005 - 01:18 AM
if I were catching more of those kind of moves I wouldn't need to make the shorter term trades.
Posted 10 January 2005 - 01:19 AM
Not that I would dong CAT, but I don't see why Thursday wasn't a reversal and isn't accumulating now. Cuidado amigo.
One day sometime in the future he'll [Cramer] come blubbering and whimpering on air half naked and smeared with his own feces. It'll be the buy signal of the decade. --PhatBubble
One thing I think is certain. The more the world's central banks act to suppress the cost of long term capital, the more of it the market will demand, thereby keeping upward pressure on yields until the CBs have no choice but to relent. At that point we should see a massive final blowoff similar to that which occurred in 1980 and 1981. --Doctor Stool
In a topsy turvy world, growing more and more insane by the minute, terminal eccentricities, like buying Fanny, are barely noticed--Beardrech
"[George W. Bush] is Woodrow Wilson on amphetamines." --Patrick J. Buchanan
"I simply don't know where the money is." --John Corzine
Posted 10 January 2005 - 01:37 AM
Francisco, you could well be right. I'm thinking of it as 'on the cusp' right now. If the dow is flat to down, I think CAT will start down again. But if the dow gets jammed on Monday, I think a fair bit of buying volume will come in; although even in that case, I'm doubtful it'll return to the 98 level...unless we really are into a bounce back to dow 11,000
I didn't see any follow through on Friday, to that buying on Thursday. There were several mkt-jams on Friday....yet CAT trailed off throughout the day, and didn't have a single solid climb that day. It's a weak clue, admittedly, but to me it indicated that the thursday mo-mo was little dippers, not mega-fund dippers....if ya know what I mean...
Posted 10 January 2005 - 01:39 AM
ps; I'm not sure what they'll cook up for the US retail number, or what effect it'll have on the mkts; but it's interesting to consider the UK as a parallel....
Worst Christmas for 10 years
The Scotsman - 4 hours ago
HIGH street retailers have suffered one of the most miserable Christmases in recent memory - despite desperately trying to tempt shoppers with bumper discounts, official figures will reveal this week.
Posted 10 January 2005 - 01:53 AM
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