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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 04:40 PM

As usual, I get a plethora of unwanted “personal ad solicitations” in my e-mail box every day.

Here’s one which arrived yesterday from Yahoo! Personals:

“Cute Post-Op Transexual”

Age: 42; Manhattan Beach, CA

”I am a post-op transsexual. I have been transitioning for 18 months now, and considered very pretty. I live full time as a woman now and pass very easily. Very funny and outgoing…..”

…………………….

No doubt the U.S. Stock Market is no different. What started out as a “bear market rally” morphed into something else completely unrecognizable. A full-fledged Mania Run, where many indexes reached new highs, at unheard of levels.

Has the market turned into a “Post-op Bull Market?”

Did Alan Greenspan subvert natural forces and perform a sex change on all known rules of economics?

I guess it takes years for a man to morph into a woman, to the point where she can run personal ads without flinching.

As shown by the highlights of Doug Noland’s closing comments the last 4 years, it is obvious that the “unexpected” and “impossible” has actually occurred.

Here are some excerpts……….

12/29/00

”And finally, it is worth noting that as this historic year draws to its conclusion, severe distortions to the real economy are becoming increasingly conspicuous. There are no easy solutions to such problems, and they certainly are not solved by lower interest rates and greater credit creation. As should have been expected after years of money and credit abuse, the list of problem areas is as long as it is diverse.”

“For 2001, we don’t see the predominant risk being a failure of an individual institution, as much as the potential for the entire credit mechanism to come under intense scrutiny. For the next year, we certainly expect that the entire logic of derivatives and credit insurance will come to be questioned. We also expect that the bullish perception of money market funds as “risk free” investments/”stores of value” is a (major) potential casualty of the unfolding crisis. Further, the current path of reckless financial sector leveraging, consumer credit excess, and the unrelenting accumulation of foreign liabilities guarantee a crisis in confidence for the dollar. We don’t believe the worst is over for the global financial system. Trouble could come from overseas, with financial systems throughout Asia an accident waiting to happen. One of these days there will be a major derivative accident, perhaps out of Japan, Taiwan or South Korea.”


12/28/01

” For those believing that the current environment portends 1950s and early ‘60s-style tranquility, there is going to be a rude awakening. Financial Arbitrage Capitalism is neither sound nor stable. Indeed, it inherently foments self-reinforcing financial and economic imbalances.”

12/20/02

”As we have repeatedly attempted to explain, the issue today is not inflation or deflation. The problem is an out of control financial system locked precariously in a Credit and speculative Bubble. And the Fed, Wall Street, and Washington are, incredibly, absolutely determined to perpetuate reckless Credit inflation and the systemic Bubble. The issue is a runaway inflationary expansion of dollar claims.”

“We will add that the degree of extreme Credit excess we are experiencing currently in mortgage finance is indeed bound to contract one day. Wild inflationary (speculative) Bubbles invariable do collapse. One of these days there will be a dramatic shift in the financial and economic landscape. That the economy and financial system are today struggling in the face of unprecedented mortgage Bubble excess and extreme Credit market speculation does not bode well for the day when the Next Shoe Drops.”


12/19/03

”The stock market is, as well, demonstrating conspicuous speculative Bubble dynamics. Typical and healthy pullbacks are not forthcoming, giving way instead to price surges and speculative runs. And I would argue that speculative Bubbles in both the equity and Credit markets place the faltering dollar at significant risk. The dollar sinks in the face of booming financial markets and unprecedented foreign central bank purchases. The worst is yet to come.”


“Over the years we’ve witnessed several of these “reliquefications.” This one, however, is much more extreme and global. Previous “reliquefications” usually ran their course in a year to 18 months, creating only bigger problems and bigger forthcoming “reliquefications.” The current one is no youngster, but it is, admittedly, a different animal than we’ve analyzed before. Global central bankers have painted themselves into a dark corner.”



12/23/04

“Everything sure looks horrible for the markets, the economy is about to fall off a cliff, and there is a pyramid of excess compounding upon excesses. The entire Credit system is running completely out of control and our (acutely fragile financial and hopelessly maladjusted economic) system is chaotically and irreversibly self-destructing. It looks like the end of the financial system as we know it -- have an especially Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

“Any type of loss can be more than made up for with additional Credit creation, and any bursting Bubble mitigated by collapsing interest rates and manipulating the yield curve. ”

“I am getting quite excited for 2005! It seems destined to be fascinating, challenging and historic. Such opportunities don’t come around all too often.”


…………………………………..

Poor Doug seems like he’s lost it. Can you blame him?? Who would have ever believed what would happen the last 4 years?

What will happen next year?

Who knows?

Everyone have a Happy New Year………..

The Index of Choice in 2004 was the Dow Jones Mining Index, up 84%..........

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#2 GTNWORSE

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 05:19 PM

I want to wish all of you a happy, healthy New Year. I sincerely appreciate the knowledge and experience shared on this board. Here's to making profitable choices in the market next year which ever way it's going.

Be Well

#3 stanley

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 05:32 PM

I guess it takes years for a man to morph into a woman,

As shown by the highlights....



#4 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 05:41 PM

Close: The market began the year's last day of trading with an upbeat bias and closed out 2004 on a positive note despite some last-minute selling interest closing the indices a bit lower... Most of the day was again characterized by a rather quiet day of trade which kept market activity on the NYSE roughly 38% below its three-month average and volumes on the Nasdaq under 1 bln shares until only one hour of trading remained...

The absence of corporate news or economic data, coupled with uneventful action in overseas markets and an early close for the bond market, only added to today's lackluster activity... Steel (+2.0%), after being hit hard yesterday in the wake of potential over-supply concerns in China, was the largest gainer on the day, but it wasn't enough to keep the materials sector in the green... Semiconductor (+0.5%) was also strong with some assistance coming from Intel (INTC 23.39 +0.14), despite the chipmaker being the second biggest loser (-27%) on the Dow in 2004... Energy (+0.2%) eked out modest gains while the futures markets for trading oil contracts, which have acted as an impetus behind so many influential market swings, were closed...

=====================

To all of Stoolville:

Merry New Year!

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#5 dozer

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 06:04 PM

Stanley.... :lol:
.
.
If I'm reading that Mining-Index chart right, it's up 300% from March til now...from roughly 300 to 900. :unsure:

Mark, it was interesting to read those snippets from 4 years all at the same time. Good thought.

Funny tho...in reading through them, it doesn't appear that he says anything about the market being in trouble until this last one, 12/04....

I wonder if WMT is the only reason the RLX has been flat??

It does appear as though 'consumers' ability to soak up debt has finally become saturated this year.

Don't know what the SM is going to do in 2005, but I am pretty sure that the economy is in trouble. Without income-growth, only the supply of more credit has enabled the binge to continue as long as it has.

Will that credit be extended even further in 2005?

Will it matter if it is? There are signs that people are beginning to cut spending even when they have a bit of credit left.

uhh...not the moron-lady in NV who bought 19 Pukey homes on spec while unemployed... :P I mean the -other- folks, who didn't do that... :lol:

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 06:04 PM

Happy New year everyone. You ALL make this a great place to be!

#7 Jimi

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 06:27 PM

Great look back Mark. That old saw that, "Bubbles can run longer and farther than you or I can imagine" would seem to apply to the... well in my mind, EVERYTHING! There is no denying that Noland has had the facts all right, but the conclusions all wrong. Or, at least the timing. I can sympathize: I've given up trying to understand what I clearly cannot understand.

Except that for the long term, wealth preservation occurs in something other than dollars.

All the best to you & fellow-M2M-travelers in 2005.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
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Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
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#8 Charmin

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 06:33 PM

Stock Traders Almanac
Hark back to December 17, 2003 when we forecast gains for 2004:
“Election year forces plus an improving economy lead us to our bullish
outlook for the Dow to tack on an additional 10-20% and top out near the year 2000 highs of 11,700. From current levels that’s about 15%. The S&P and the NASDAQ won’t be able to reach their 2000 highs. The S&P will keep pace with the Dow for the most part and get into the 1200 area. NASDAQ will surpass these gains and likely pass 2500 and encroach 3000…”

December Comments:
"3000 is definitely not going to be reached on the NASDAQ by yearend.
2500 is a stretch but not impossible, and it is plausible by the end of this
bull-run in early 2005. Dow 11700, just 10% or so above current levels is not unimaginable — and we should at least get close by New Year’s. S&P 1200, a mere 2% from current levels, is all but a done deal."
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#9 dozer

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 06:53 PM

wow....their 2003 prediction called it pretty close, Charmin!

Jimi, MD, Charmin, best of the new year to ya! And to all stoolies. :)

#10 machinehead

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 06:54 PM

Monica winced, as the too-thin spaghetti straps of her clingy black cami cut into her shoulders uncomfortably. It was a slow night at the Leather 'n Lace. All the Hill types leave Washington during the holidays. You can sense the difference.

She was up for the next customer. He looked vaguely familiar. Fortyish. Good-looking, in a teddy-bear kind of way, with a prominent bald dome. She sidled up to his table.

"Heyyy ... it's been a long time since I've seen you. Where've you been, Charlie?"

"It's Ben."

"Sorry ... Ben."

Seeing the drinks waitress approaching, Monica sat down next to Ben. He ordered a vodka martini, she, "the usual." They made small talk.

When the drinks arrived, Monica slid right next to Ben, touched his wrist lightly, and crossed her legs in his direction.

"So, you're in finance, aren't you?"

"Federal Reserve Board," he answered softly. His well-modulated professorial diction didn't quite conceal the underlying traces of a South Carolina accent.

"You still humping the tea trolley girl?"

"Whaa-a-a-a ..." Ben backed away, reddening profusely.

"I'm KIDDING!" she shot back. "Jeez, you uptight left-brain types ... we'd better get you another drink."

Ben nodded his concurrence.

Observing the protocols of both the nightclub and political worlds, Monica kept the conversation light, jokey, archly suggestive, but safely away from work topics. Ben seemed preoccupied. He quickly assented to repeated offers of more rounds from the observant waitress.

Seeing Ben loosening up a little, Monica caught the eye of the deejay. He lowered the background lighting still more, flicked on a little halogen spot above their table, and cued up Super Freak. Kneeling directly on the chair next to Ben, Monica lifted the cami up to her neck, arched her back the way they like, and shimmied and swayed in his face to the loping bass groove, practically losing herself in the music. Ben rolled his head to the beat, looking both shocked and slightly glassy-eyed. When the music ended, he appreciatively slipped a crisp fifty-dollar bill under her black garter belt as she reseated herself close to him.

Engaging him again in conversation, Monica noticed Ben staring downward. Thinking that he was admiring her well-turned ankle, she straightened her foot like a ballet dancer to highlight the thin black straps of her high heels. But he was looking higher.

In fact, she realized, he was staring at the fifty-dollar bill. And he realized that she realized.

"What? Is it too much for you, Big Spender?" she asked, taken aback.

"NO! No, really, no! I was just ... you misunderstood!" he exclaimed, reddening again.

"Misunderstood how?" she demanded.

"It's ... well, we've got a crisis situation ... that relates to it. Sorry I'm not being clear." Ben put his fingertips momentarily to his damp forehead, then took another long draw from his drink. "I haven't told anybody about this, but it's keeping me awake at night."

"You can share it with me," Monica breathed softly, fixing him with her big brown doe eyes, amply highlighted with mascara.

"Well ... did you ever watch how cashiers will run a marker over a bill when you spend it, to check whether it's counterfeit?" Ben inquired.

"Sure ... I do that myself back in the dressing room," Monica replied, then reconsidered. "Uh, hey, that's between you and me, Ben. I'm supposed to turn it all in for counting."

"Oh, I know!" Ben agreed, enthusiastically. "The black economy! Gortler and I wrote a paper about it -- the only sector of the economy that's actually growing!"

"You're smarter than I took you for," Monica responded. Ben's face went blank.

"Joke, Ben! Are we having fun yet?" Monica giggled, nudging him with her elbow. "Go on, then."

Ben sighed, nodded to the waitress as she brought what Monica thought was his fifth or sixth drink.

"Well, we've found out that counterfeit bills pass that test. They pass ALL the tests. The counterfeiters in Colombia can print anything we can print."

"Can't you spot them by the identical serial numbers?" Monica inquired, brow furrowing.

"Their computer graphics even merge in iterated sequences of unique serial numbers," Ben answered. "The fact is that paper money is no longer secure. Even I have no way of knowing whether that fifty I gave you is ours or theirs."

Monica stared at him.

"You can imagine the inflationary impact this is having," Ben went on. Monica noticed that "you" had turned into an elongated diphthong, as the alcohol stripped away the artificial strictures of his late-acquired, clipped northern speech.

"We adjust all the numbers to back out the counterfeit money supply. But as it grows and the real inflation rate pushes toward ten percent, it's becoming harder and harder to keep the lid on," Ben added, sipping his drink again.

"So ... what happens now?" Monica asked.

"No more paper money," Ben asserted, a little too vehemently.

"You expect everybody to use debit cards?" Monica exclaimed.

"No. We're going to chip the cash to authenticate it. RFID chips, you know. But there's a technical problem with putting them into paper bills. The chips have to be a certain physical size, including the antenna. You fold them too many times, they break. Fatigue failure, they call it ..."

"Not something that would ever affect you, huh, Mister Stud Muffin?" Monica winked.

Ben smiled wanly, then picked up the thread.

"So we end up having to put the RFID chips in plastic coins. Five, ten, twenty, even hundred-dollar coins. But we've dressed up the outside with a hard titanium nitride film. It's bright gold, not plastic looking at all."

Monica wrinkled her nose. "I don't know, Ben ... isn't that kind of ... cheesy?"

"Maybe it's appropriate for a plastic society," Ben mused. "Read what Paul Fussell, one of my academic colleagues in New Jersey, said about 'prole drift.'"

"But what's really cool," Ben went on, waving his hand expansively, "is that later when we go all electronic, we can invalidate those chipped coins at the drop of a hat. Boom!" he exclaimed, pounding his fist into his palm for emphasis. At this outburst, not only Monica but a couple at the next table went silent, looking in Ben's direction.

"Uh ... heh heh ... that's the plot for my novel. A fiction novel. You didn't know I'm a frustrated novelist, did you? Yeah ... it got twelve rejections ... too UNREALISTIC, they said. Ha ha," Ben improvised, making sure he was audible to all.

"Gee," responded Monica, a little deflated. "What an honor to meet the budding author. Thanks for making my night. I mean, I don't even know if the tips I'm getting here at the club are real anymore."

Ben's face dropped, stricken. Impulsively reaching into his inside jacket pocket, he removed a small leather zip bag, smaller than a cigarette case, and fished around in it. She saw a soft gold glint, just before Ben pressed something cold, metallic and heavy into her palm.

Taking her hand in both of his and fixing her with an earnest gaze, Ben spoke slowly to avoid slurring.

"This is REAL money, Monica, and always will be. And you can take that to the Federal Reserve Bank."
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

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#11 Charmin

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 06:57 PM

Joe Duarte's 2004 predictions and outlook for 2005
http://www.financial.../2004/1231.html
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#12 dozer

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 07:08 PM

geez...you've got me wearing out the edge of my chair this week Machinehead....bravo! :D

#13 FranciscoTheMan

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 07:20 PM

Machinehead is on fire this week, it will only be a short time before the thought police arrive at his door.
One day sometime in the future he'll [Cramer] come blubbering and whimpering on air half naked and smeared with his own feces. It'll be the buy signal of the decade. --PhatBubble
One thing I think is certain. The more the world's central banks act to suppress the cost of long term capital, the more of it the market will demand, thereby keeping upward pressure on yields until the CBs have no choice but to relent. At that point we should see a massive final blowoff similar to that which occurred in 1980 and 1981. --Doctor Stool
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#14 Charmin

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 07:24 PM

Machinehead has "Goldfingers" - hahahahahah
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#15 longOnUranus

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Posted 31 December 2004 - 07:25 PM

Monica winced, as the too-thin spaghetti straps of her clingy black cami cut into her shoulders uncomfortably....
"This is REAL money, Monica, and always will be. And you can take that to the Federal Reserve Bank."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


The moral of this story is to buy all that you can get your hands on.

Gold, that is. :D

Great story, MH :lol: :lol: :lol:





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