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Winning The Hearts and Minds…of the Wildebeest…

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#256 dozer


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Posted 06 December 2004 - 01:39 AM

won't find -me- arguing with that! :lol:

#257 AGInvestor


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Posted 06 December 2004 - 02:00 AM

jickiss is back!


110 28/32 is derived from long term chart and trend levels that jickiss has never posted.

the number is a level from which, jickiss argues, (without trying to post chart-type-proofs) that ewe will all see has an effect on the belief that interest rates will stay low forever.

today, the mass mind still believes in Real Estate.  It is the Merican Religion of our times.

When your jickiss lived in Kali, he was always amazed at the Ratio of Truly Wonderful Casas to the Total Number of Casas.  It was very low.

since we have a global readership here, let your jickiss say it this way:

take Newport Beach Kali and Bryn Mawr Pennsylvania.

your jickiss says that, for SURE, any house right on the beach at Newport is worth plenty.  you say $7,000,000, your jickiss says $10,000,000.  What  a view.  What an address.  There is real value there.  Who really cares about the price.  This is priceless, for sure, on a perfect clear evening, with the sun setting over the Pacific.  Only a moron could care about the price.  Life is too short to care, if you can afford, just buy.


your jickiss notes that all of the non-view properties in Kali are now trading like they have a view....., so to say.....this is pure bubble, and will end badly.

go to Bryn Mawr, Pa, for the second half of the example.  All of the north side properties are waayyy up in value, in the last decade.  But they are all "nice."
Bryn Mawr College probably is one of the 5 most beautiful college campus environments on earth.  the large properties in the  north side of Bryn Mawr all all up.  they are all really wonderful.

but, if you don't pay your mortgage in Bryn Mawr, you are putting all of your assets at risk.....(if you have a mortgage).

in Kali, the one decision rule (if jickiss understands it to be correct) means that the worst that can happen to you, if you do not pay the mortgage, is that you will have to strain to lift the keys, mail them in, and say, "Tanks, Lender, See Ya Buddie!"  or whatever.

regards to all!
who owes -0- money to anyone, at this second.

debt will lead to destruction, except in Kali, if the One Decision Rule enables the borrowers to just toss keys back and walk into the deserts to die, free and clear and thirsty!!!

while PA freezes to death, from the coming killer cold wave, (obviously hatched by B4 and his underlings), to get even for those nasty border searches.


The owner's other assets are protected if it a purchase (as opposed to a refinance) loan for a home you live in at the time you get the loan (even if you subsequently convert it to a rental):


#258 Drano


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Posted 06 December 2004 - 02:06 AM

I would never want to fade K-Wave, nor Brian (which makes it hard when they disagree on something, like the dollah!)


What if there really is Weimar inflation? Just as K-Wave says, we better be long the stock market if that's the case -- and don't we also want to own real estate in that scenario? Imagine selling your house for $57K in the seventies, and seeing it now be worth nearly TWO MILLION -- won't we see the same thing only happening lots faster if it's Weimar II comin' right up? :blink:

I also wonder if normal lower-middle-class/middle-class houses will be as affected as McMansions in a real estate bubble pop.
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Posted 06 December 2004 - 03:57 AM

This has been a particularly profitable one for those how had the balls to hold on and keep investing in.


It has not.

Not for most home owners.


The ones that have sold, yes, they have made profits. The ones left holding the bags are gonna get raped, and raped badly.

And all the way down they will continue to bluster and spew nonsense and pop mythology, all the time ignoring simple arithmetic.

It doesn't bother me that speculators will lose money, because they trade, they know the risks, they win some and lose some, and they're playing with extra money they don't need.

What bothers me is to see the vast majority of ignorant common schmucks thinking they have so much equity, cashing it out, spending it on crap to keep up with neighbors, not knowing there will be no more cashouts for next ten years as prices drop then flatten. And they will be trapped in debt, underwater, and over their heads in mortgage and other bills.

Because they got sucked in by real estate borkers and other shysters and yes their own greed, but they were coerced into it by all the B.S.

#260 DrStool


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Posted 06 December 2004 - 09:33 AM

A real estate value decline of 20% may not mean much if you still have your job, can still make the payments, and if prices recover in 10 years. At least you have a roof over your head.

The coming "adjustment" is going to be different. First of all, for many, their jobs will be in China and India. Second, the bubble today was driven by a credit bubble subsidized by super low interest rates, courtesy of foreign central banks, a situation that will not persist indefinitely. Third, millions of mortgages were adjustables entered at the bottom of the rate cycle. A tidal wave of foreclosures will balloon supply, and demand will simultaneously collapse. In terms of the national average, I suspect that the "adjustment" will be significantly more than 20-30%.

Holding stocks in a Weimar style inflation may or may not make sense. Depends on interest rates, i.e opportunity cost, and whether the real rate of return is positive or negative. Stocks may go up or they may not, and even if they do, you may still lose ground. The best investment in the last inflation was that 16%, 30 year bond, which you would still be holding today.

More at http://www.realestatebubblewatch.com

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