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Winning The Hearts and Minds…of the Wildebeest…


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#1 Ags Nightmare

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 02:59 AM

I saw Mark was taking off and Doc’s request after the close Thursday to fill in for M2M so I figured I’d throw out my thoughts. I won't be here tomorrow as I have to help someone whos spouse passed away.

I’ve gone into lurk mode and still read B4, IDS,and M2M everyday.

First, I can’t blame those for gaming this and I can’t blame those for taking a whiz on the bull’s campfire either….I’ll be honest. I can’t believe what I’m seeing again from an outsider looking in.

I decided in October my year was over and I was satisfied with the gains. Plus I’m tired of the casino and just wanted to back off…its been 14 years watching this sheet…

In addition, there are family issues I have to tend to that are weighing heavy on my mind now. My family, work, coaching, and hoops scouting are taking up my time. We have a baby due in March and there are some complications we just found out about today as we are older parents…plus my wife’s insurance got suddenly switched due to cost issues into some sheet plan which is going to cost us a bundle. Our health care system is a train wreck…

So remember this one in addition to the housing mania…Health care…just another macro nightmare waiting to happen as we ignore the needs of those at home while we nation build. These serious issues along with the housing bubble are things Joe six-pack doesn’t give a sheet about because they are once again blinded by the greed and more importantly believe nothing can go wrong again. They were “promised” by the bullhorners…Their hearts and minds are elsewhere…in the casino.

Only thing that matters again is the numbers and symbols on the 8x11 piece of paper that comes in the mail every month and “if they won or are winning again”. Back to the binary market…

It’s blatantly obvious again, the mania is alive and well and price’s paid for anything that moves no longer matter. But we hear about the “health and strength and growth in the face of comically ridiculous econ numbers and sheety earnings”….but….It’s as if every street in every city has a one way sign and every light is green. It’s 2000 again, and the Nazcrap just celebrated the first 5-year “mania” cycle by throwing another Q on the symbol of the worlds largest and most overused basket of over owned overpriced POS’s. The largest ball of twine just added another 10 feet.

Maybe they will add a Q every year now in honor of the mania. Like an award for keeping Leesons fiat lab experiment alive so that by the year 2010 it will be the QQQQQQQQQQ’s….sort of like decorating a 5 Star General…a badge of mania honor, a Q for every year they add a brick on the paper pyramid .

And when we get back to Stinky’s 80 dollar counter trend entry from 2000, Art Crashin will halt trading on the floor of the NYSE and pause for a moment of silence when the Starship takes off for money heaven. The celebration will be complete with bag pipes and kilted fat men with red faces blowing their favorite tune into their plaid bags filled with 100 proof scotch breath.

Another thing I am sure of, the retailers who were clutching their mutual funds all the way down definitely held on…we never saw capitulation….we saw water torture, double downers, and bottom catchers but no capitulation….They rode the Magnum Force from 5000 to the bottom of the hill and are along for the ascent up the second hill adding what cash they have left or pyramiding gunslinger gains, puffing out chests over Turkey dinners as the addiction to the casino intensifies again….Now they are getting even or close to it….and not even one is thinking of selling…but they have been rewarded. Question is what will they do? Well, they won’t sell.

Again, everything in our country is centered around the casino and everything else is meaningless. For the herd, there hasn’t been the need to make a critical decision or really think for 19 months. And its getting “easier”…one decision…buy any concept…Jimmy Jones on crack…Plus, this giant redwood rally has been advertised like the Hummer commercial where the soccer mom drops her kid of at school in front of the gang bangers and the suburban kid walks by the thugs and goes..”supppp”…the thugs stand there and the camera pans to the car…the kids mom is driving Mr. Dino the Dinosaur that gets 2 miles to the gallon. It’s the Mrs. P of the 2000’s….I think it’s…Stewart’s mom? No fear…”spend away my little “VISA hopper”. Next we will see a kid named Ditech or Beezer.

So, it’s as easy as it gets as Bubba said along with Mark.

Stoolies know this won't end well again. But….I think this is more psychotic than 2000 but I have no clue on “time” or price levels. It is…Raging bull ? Indexes aren’t up that much this year…mania stocks are though…So I’d say it’s a mania. More dangerous, More complacent, More arrogant, More risky, More reckless, More unrecognized by the masses than the 1996 to 2000 space needle. Why do I think so? Because the herd thinks the bear is over when in fact the mania never ended.

There are no more bull and bear markets to me. Just random constant sub manias…obscene and overdone tireless trends…they work both ways in manias and the up phase is occurring. Then comes exhaustion…then water torture. It has nothing to do with what businesses stocks are in. But I think “this mania” is for the plutocrats…where the rich are getting filthy rich and the classes divide even further. It’s a corporate mania. Complete when they have full control of all financial resources that control our destiny. They don’t want a lot of people rich. I’m not gonna retire on putting 2 % into Vanguard 500 in place of paying FICA.

As a person who saw every psychotic tick on every day of the parabolic rise we witnessed and once steered people who would listen out of the chaos in 1999, I assure you, when the time comes, likely sometime next year, they won’t listen a second time due to the fact most do not understand the environment of chaos they are participating in. Same as before. And if I were long now…I be peeling stuff off and going on vacation…slowly building cash….watching…but that’s just me…I don’t think anyone gets out the next time due to the fact the decline won’t be believed. Or that a wipe out could be “allowed again”.

On Price A question I ask myself to validate my mania theory…..

Plunger often says…what stock market? Well, there is no stock market…. A casino yes.

If I pulled a Sherman and Mr. Peabody and went into the “way back machine” to lets say 1991. What price would Fleabay be? Gurgle? APOL ? WFMI ? Yehaw ? Or any other piece of overpriced IBD mo mo paper that can’t be compared to any type of metric due to the fact none exists?

I wonder how would it be “priced” or “perceived” without the emotion and bullhoring and reckless borkers pitching out ridiculous price targets, something that wasn’t the norm back in the early 90’s to mid 90’s which “became” a tool in the bubble. A form of validation.

Comparisons were different. You had to earn your price because it was not a mania. To me that was a stock market and there were some screamers that deserved their price. It had it’s pockets of overpriced stocks and hype, but it resembled a market based on the willingness to take “ownership” of what you bought. This is a point I make to people who disregard today’s risk and recklessness and they think I’m a black helicopter pilot.

But as I’ve just been told again by a family member over the holidays who I’m sure thinks I’m crazy, “it doesn’t matter”,” who cares?, “ride the wave”…that same person got ripped in 2000 and will get ripped when this breaks due to the inability to back off or having always to be in. Maybe overtrading will get him or not knowing how to sell and enjoy a gain and keep it. But my guess is he will always be buying something and humping some dog ball rally or trying to catch a shank or falling knife after his luck changes….just doesn’t get it. The hamster on the wheel syndrome doesn’t work in a mania. It’s a tough game and it’s tough to “keep” your gains.

So, this is one of the first times I’ve actually abstained or am just sitting it out as I sense this getting out of control. It is refreshing to “wait”, watching this unfold again in the same disastrous longer-term pattern for the masses who are lining the richest elite’s pockets with their confetti.

As in 2000, the only element I cannot handicap is time…this is that crazy and I haven’t even mentioned the geopolitical train wreck also being ignored and suppressed by the media that can change things in a day. We have been ostracized again. Heads buried so deep in the sand we can see China.

I do wish those the best of luck who wade in the “Pluto shark” filled waters of crooks and thieves racing to the December 31st finish line to get their year end bonuses so they can buy another subdivision. Then, the winners of the race get to be interviewed in the Barronscuda January issue of bullhorning top guns and receive invitations to gather around the glass table on Crapvision. As they rub their shoeless feet on Jimmy Jones leg while being asked between sprays of spit about whether the fact that Stun Guns being used on 6 year olds would effect the next 3 for 1 split of the Terminator in February… a 300 lotto ball pops out of the floor and lands in Liz and Slanderous’ lap and she yells “FLEBAY 300 ! strong buy !” …Then Jimmy Jones says ..”Brilliant !…and Joey Butthead says…”Brilliant !”

They will all be there with greasball Kraplow tossing out new price targets on the most adored New years Day floats and maybe even bring in Trapper John for star appeal….all of the pieces of paper being discussed will soon be chased by the influx of “new hedgehog managers” or “hedge lets”, who raised 20 million from some Las Vegas Carlton Sheets millionaires over the Christmas break and are about to join the new and improved “plutocratic mania” where corporations and insiders take the upper class percentage of wealth down to ½ % who own all the wealth in the world….

I’ll wait till next year and watch the fireworks …I won’t play in the dirty water…and I will again help those who are in get out explaining that what’s happening is still part of the mania’s anomaly…explain that making 100 % in a year or doubling your money just got you 10 years of gains…. Not bad I’d say, why push it….

Pay of homes and debts and enjoy the gains….get whole…this toilet bowl will be swirling another day and everyone can turd bob again like we do with apples on Halloween….

So as I sat back and thought about one of the “themes” of the past three years which was to “win the hearts and minds” in the middle east…The Plutocrats have one upped the anti and have just accomplished a bigger goal in the face of insurmountable odds by “winning the hearts and minds…of the herd, bookmakers and hedgehogs”…And as usual, Cheat Street wins again in the same lawless fashion that’s existed since 1995/96. The rules have been trashed and for all the corruption we saw, we end up with a basket weaver doing time to make things right and are right back to where we were five years ago. Now where will the scales tip? I don’t know…the time element of this one is the tough question.

The difference is …now we have massive amounts of unregulated hedge funds screwing around with trillions of dollars of derivatives, and un-quantifiable risk that no one cares about or sees, until it blows an O Ring. And like before, the break of this one will be seen as a correction…and then another, and another. You just know the bottom feeding carp will be out after every shank once the trend changes. Unless there is an elevator drop which I doubt now. I’d bet on water torture.

But this time, it’s so out of control, and we’ve been there before, maybe the first lab experiment may have taught the plutocrats things we don’t even know about on how to assure destruction of the financial markets occur at a far later date. But it will end in pain again.

In summation…time is the variable in a mania that destroys people and we don’t know the inside game. To early, wrong on the trend. Bad guess. Only the rich elite know what’s going on. And they will be the winners. Ever see the Carlyle Group lose?

Take care all..and good speculating...

Ag
"I went out and bought an Apple Computer; it had a worm in it"....."When I was born, I was so ugly that the doctor slapped my mother"....'I played hide and seek; they wouldn't even look for me.'- Rodney Dangerfield

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#2 beardrech

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:05 PM

Ag
Selfishness compels meto ask that you return to the battlefield at once--we neeed you.....badly
But being charitable and generous of spirit I recognize your need for R & R lest like Lot's relative yu turn into a pillar of Salt

Enjoy your rest

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: I'd stop myself from looking at this Trainwrck--but I'm too intelligent to quit while I'm behind

Joke really--my Golden Calf is doing ok

#3 mirac

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:16 PM

Take care all..and good speculating...

Ag

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Thanx Ags... commentary was a ripper!!!!! And glad to have you back, if only for a short while.

Mirac

#4 soup

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:17 PM

AG: Well said. That should be printed in the Sunday Trib, but then again the sheep would not have a clue as to what you are saying.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#5 Bearman

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:21 PM

AG great post!

family first

#6 DrStool

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:23 PM

God bless you Ags Nightmare! You are welcome here any time, all the time, whenever you feel like it!

Many many tanks for the great open!

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#7 Ned38

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:23 PM

Ag

Fantastic.........................that's a keeper

#8 Charmin

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:24 PM

Mark has been in a bull mode for some time....

Tonights scan....
Transportation group
Less than 52 week high but within 30%
110% of daily average volume

my list
TOPT
TNP
TK
VLCCF
TRMD
OSG
CHRW

notes: Very good group. (TNP, OMM, GMR, FRO, SJH)Highly ranked by IBD
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#9 Private Skidmark

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:31 PM

Take care all..and good speculating...

Ag

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


F. Stool Fitzgerald I say.
The highest compliment you can pay a man today is that he’s a fairly convincing approximation of a real person.

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#10 GTNWORSE

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:40 PM

Thank you for the wonderful opening AG!!
I was counting on a disappointment from INTEL and a weak jobs report. Oh well, at least I got half of what I wanted.

I continue to feel, without a shred of doubt that, apart from the occasional sell-offs that separate money from weak hands, that bonds remain in a secular bull market. I do not think that the bond bull will end until after the next recession.

I'll be looking for FEED's sell-off to begin next week. I know that FEED has it right and am heavily relying on his prognosis. I have postioned myself self appropriately.

No pressure though, FEED:)

#11 DrStool

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:41 PM

Is This The Crash?
Dollar At 9 Year Low
Mammoth Bond Rally-- Meaning?

Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

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#12 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:41 PM

Ag
That was the post of the year.
Many thanks. Copied and ready for those that want to hear.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#13 Calculus

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 05:44 PM

Nice one Ags. Good luck with the little one :D

#14 DrStool

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 06:01 PM

It's the weekend. Time to talk real estate!

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#15 tradermark

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Posted 03 December 2004 - 06:01 PM

superb commentary Ag's, superb





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