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"As Good As It Gets" Shopping Melee


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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 01:54 PM

Anybody watch the hordes of desperate shoppers stampeding the doors of Target and Costco at 6:00am this morning???

Looked like the Wildebeasts found on the floor of the NYSE when 990N is spotted.....

Except, instead of thick necked Rugby players like John Brady at Man Financial, you saw maddening crowds of overweight, overfed, out of shape Joe Sixes storming the doors of the malls.

No other time do you see these couch potatos break into a full blown sprint. Funny how these guys manage to charge off the line so soon after wallowing in their easy chairs, watching ESPN SportsCenter all day, engorging themselves on cranberry, stuffing, and pecan pie.

No doubt, with a fistfull of Capital One, MBNA, Discover, and JP Morgan Chase blank checks promising "no interest until 2007".

Everyone is yapping about how good the Christmas season is going to be this year.

Here's the latest from CBS MarketWatch:

Outside the Best Buy in Maple Grove, Minnesota, there was a temporary shelter, commonly used by ice fishers to brave the bone-chilling cold. A determined shopper, waiting for shopping bargains the day after Thanksgiving.

"I couldn't believe it," said Steve Gremmels, the store's assistant manager. "I pulled up at 2:30 a.m., and the guy said he had set up the ice-house warming station at about 11 the night before. The people in line behind him had brought a grill and were making brats and hot dogs."

When Gremmels arrived, the line already was 50 people deep at the store. By the time he swung open the doors at 6 a.m., people were snaked around the Best Buy building in the Minneapolis suburb.

"These were the earliest lines we've ever had," Gremmels said.

"At a Sears store in Evansville, Ind., manager Alan Adams said his workers were wearing Craftsman safety glasses to protect themselves from the chaos as 30 to 35 people were lined up at the store's 30 cash registers by 8 a.m. -- two hours after he let them through the door.

"The products are just flying out of here," Adams said. "It's probably the best 'Black Friday' in recent years."

Scenes like those were played out in shopping centers across the United States as the Friday-after-Thanksgiving kicked off the spree known as holiday shopping.

Gloria Speigle was in Union Square in San Francisco at 5 a.m., ready to pick up coats, bedding and a cashmere sweater at Macy's.

"I didn't sleep last night," she said. "I heard [Macy's] opened at 5, but I would have been here at 2 if it had opened then. I like to shop without the crowds."



To me it looks like this is "As Good As It Gets".

How could things get any better?

Witness the extraordinary milestones reported in today's Wall Struck Journal today.

Call Buying Shows Bullishness Reigns Among Investors

By KOPIN TAN

NEW YORK -- It took the Thanksgiving holiday to slow the bullish brigade in the options market.

Rising oil prices Wednesday didn't break their stride, as stocks gained and the options market's risk forecast relaxed near a nine-year low.

At the International Securities Exchange, investors bought 2.34 new calls for every new put -- the most bullish pace in more than seven months, according to the electronic exchange's ISEE sentiment indicator.

Bullish call buying has increased this month, and with investors buying more than two new calls for every put much of this week, the 10-day average of 1.86 looks set to push higher.

The 30-day volatility forecast as quantified by the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, or VIX, touched 12.56, a new 2004 low, before closing at 12.72. It was another sign traders expect the stock market to be fairly stable in the near term.


............................

And it looks like all time record high bonuses are in store for the Managing Directors and EVPs at the Structured Exotica Divisions at the "I-Banks"

Never before has there been such a flurry of questionable paper issued.

Asset-Backed Deals Drive Market Issuance in 2004 May Top $800 Billion and Is Poised To Surpass Corporate Bonds

By DAVID FELDHEIM

NEW YORK -- The U.S. asset-backed securities market is closing out a year of runaway success.

Issuance has almost doubled from year-earlier levels and could top $800 billion by year end. That has put the asset-backed market on track for the first time to overtake annual corporate-bond issuance, which slowed sharply this year.

"The supply throttle will likely remain wide open until the third week of December," said Jeff Salmon, who heads securitization research at Barclays Capital.

Asset-backed securities are bonds backed by pools of loans, which could range from credit-card balances to auto and home-equity borrowings. Loan repayments are passed along to bondholders as coupons.

Yield-hungry investors have been buying asset-backed offerings this year as returns in other fixed-income markets have remained relatively low. Asset-backed bonds also are attractive to some because they often are structured to garner triple-A credit ratings.

At mid-November, issuance of securitized debt, which includes structured finance products such as collateralized debt obligations, stood at $763 billion. It could exceed $800 billion by year end, compared with $565 billion in 2003, according to Ivan Gjaja, Citigroup's head of securitization research.

Corporate-bond issuance this year to date has totaled $603 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Helping to boost overall issuance, low interest rates have fueled particularly strong growth in home-equity loan securitizations, or deals that are backed by subprime-mortgage lending.

New home-equity deals sold so far this year totaled $355 billion, Mr. Gjaja said, almost double the level in 2003. For the full year, he expects issuance in this sector of about $400 billion, compared with $229 billion in 2003.

Demand for mortgage funding from subprime borrowers is creating the loans driving this surge in issuance, said Thomas Zimmerman, head of securitization research at UBS. Most of the large subprime originators need to constantly come to market to fund this demand, he added.

Low market interest rates despite four Federal Reserve rate increases have helped fuel voracious demand for mortgages because they have "extended the period of time for people to get their loans done," said John Lieber, an anal cyst at the Countrywide Securities unit of Countrywide Financial Corp., whose Countrywide Mortgage unit is a major issuer of home-equity debt.

This trend, said Mr. Lieber, has been fueled by lenders who increasingly have focused on the subprime market as last year's refinancing boom petered out, and on borrowers who hadn't qualified for mortgages in the past.

The record supply comes at a time when bond investors are interested in any deal that offers decent returns. Yield margins on investment-grade corporate bonds have remained tight.


.................................

Never before seen such a frenzy.

A frenzy to buy anything and everything at the local big box retailer.

A frenzy to buy stocks.

A frenzy to buy anything and everything that yields more than a Treasury Bond.

A frenzy to buy spec homes.

Certainly, we'll look back someday, at this point in history, and revel in the memory of Thanksgiving 2004, where things were "As Good As It Gets"...........
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#2 wndysrf

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:12 PM

1:09 [$OSX] Philadelphia Oil Service Index up 2.7 percent for week
1:08 [$XOI] Amex Oil Index ends week higher by 2 percent
1:09 [$XNG] Amex Natural Gas Index up 4.3 percent for week
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#3 Drano

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:17 PM

I drove by a Best Buy in suburban Minneapolis last night at 11:30 p.m. About half a dozen cars in the lot, a line of about 5 or 6 obvious friend groups standing in line.

It was about 28 degrees.

On the other hand, if you're on an extremely limited budget, it might be worth standing in line to get a 17 inch LCD monitor of $179, or some of the other tremendous deals. I'm about to go out to CompUSA myself, to see if I can get the largest APC uninterruptible power source for 100 bucks -- which is at least 50 bucks off the best price I've seen (1500 va). If the dollar is devaluing (IF????) we may never see prices like this again. Everyone's gotten used to prices dropping all the time -- but I remember when you bought NOW because the price would be higher next week... or tomorrow.....

By the way please don't put COSTCO in the same category as other retail. They will do VERY well in the coming crisis because they are an ethical company that treats employees well (I know two people who work there solely because the benefits are so good -- even for part-time employees) and they cap their profit at 14% of their actual cost. I never feel bad about buying something at Costco, even if I see the same item at a lower loss-leader price somewhere else, because I know I haven't overpaid in relation to wholesale.

Highly recommend their one pound of organic salad greens for less than four bucks.
Of course I'm caustic!

#4 Bearman

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:17 PM

china gona invade the US over wkend lol

spz neg on day now lol

when the masses wakeup it will be to late......WAY TO LATE


Nightmare on anystreet

gifts from chinamark :o

trailertrash rampage

Mark wheres your trailer world pic's

I dam near pissed my cave when I saw them

YEEEEEEEE HAaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

I am going chopping @ wally world!

#5 BeerMarket

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:23 PM

...
Demand for mortgage funding from subprime borrowers is creating the loans driving this surge in issuance, said Thomas Zimmerman, head of securitization research at UBS. Most of the large subprime originators need to constantly come to market to fund this demand, he added.
...
This trend, said Mr. Lieber, has been fueled by lenders who increasingly have focused on the subprime market as last year's refinancing boom petered out, and on borrowers who hadn't qualified for mortgages in the past.

i know this isn't exactly an original thought around here, but this will end badly. :o :o :o

#6 wndysrf

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:24 PM

Whar's the sale???

Wal-Mart???

I need a new couch and TV set!!!

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#7 Drano

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:25 PM

I just feel like buying LEAP puts on all that crap, and checking in again when the headlines on the newspaper talk about the crash.

Oh yeah, and buying some metals too.
Of course I'm caustic!

#8 Drano

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:26 PM

Whar's the sale???

Wal-Mart???

I need a new couch and TV set!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please! It's LUNCHTIME here! Urrk.
Of course I'm caustic!

#9 RockLedge

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:27 PM

I'm surprised the walmart hostesses didn't offer water or gatoraid throughout the stores. I'm sure they had paramedics sitting outside the entrances.

XMAS 2005 will not be like 2004. It's better they spend it now, cause there won't be nothing left, next season.

New Englanders will be hurling next month when the fuel bills arrive.

#10 wndysrf

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:29 PM

Come and Get It!!!

Charge it at Wal-Mart!!!

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#11 wndysrf

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:30 PM

More on the way.

Voracious Demand from the U.S. Consumer.

Bring it on!!!

Widen that trade deficit!!!

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#12 RockLedge

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:31 PM

Come and Get It!!!

Charge it at Wal-Mart!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


That's right,.. watch the biggest paper crash with your new HDTV.... your kids will luv ya for it.

#13 wndysrf

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:32 PM

Go ahead, U.S. Shoppers!!!

You can count on me to keep the free money checks coming!!!

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#14 Drano

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:33 PM

It is not stupid to buy stuff you need now before the effect of dollar devaluation hits. I'm going to be at CostCo tomorrow after the frenzy dies down, stocking up on canned goods. Will be at CompUSA today looking for a couple computer things I need, if anyone has left anything in the store after the feeding frenzy this a.m.
Of course I'm caustic!

#15 wndysrf

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Posted 26 November 2004 - 02:35 PM

El Paso

Anybody catch this??

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