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#31 FeedFool

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Posted 18 March 2005 - 10:44 AM

:mellow: :mellow:

Same here

Nasty seems to be doing another correction like 2004. Double bull flag???


Still think there is more upside stop loss still little under 35

May is important for bears



Charmin on the doomed house


Additional pattern evidence Charmin has recognized that is very bearish.

Permabears its time to shake off the ice :D



Anybody read my stuff here besides FF???
Please gimme a little feedback or I feel like I am talking to my echo.

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#32 stanley

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Posted 19 March 2005 - 01:31 AM

Nutsduck stochastic seems getting closer to a "flip" point,

FIB 0.5 @ 1975, if it hold, ... near a short term reversal?

wave count? messier

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chart source: clearstation.com http://clearstation....s?Symbol=_COMPX

#33

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Posted 19 March 2005 - 10:49 PM

Charmin on the doomed house


Additional pattern evidence Charmin has recognized that is very bearish.

Permabears its time to shake off the ice :D



Anybody read my stuff here besides FF???
Please gimme a little feedback or I feel like I am talking to my echo.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I read your stuff all the time Mr. Hanky - its good to see non-biased technical analysis like you show it.

#34 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 20 March 2005 - 09:40 AM

FF, Stanley, and estool,

Thanks for speaking up that's enough to keep me posting!

Here is the DOW and as most of you know by now that do read my stuff I am a big RSI fan. If I had to choose only one lower panel indicator, it would be tough between my own HI-5 and RSI but I still think RSI would win out!
The HI-5 uses volume data and that isn't always there on many important indexes such as the HUI,CRB,$,etc.

So here we have the DOW monthly from end of 40-60 bull, 60-80 bear,80-2000 bull and now the 2000-> BEAR. Absolutely nothing technically supports that we are still in or back in a long term secular bull market.
RSI has distinct bull and bear market RANGES, they vary slightly from index to index and stock to stock but analysis of anything that has a long history, the ranges can be readily identified. So what is this chart below telling us?
1) DOW RSI bull market bottoms hold above 40 and exceed 65 often on bull campaigns well into the 80+zone.
2) DOW RSI bear markets can't ever manage to exceed 65 into the bull range and they often plunge below 40 into the bottom of the bear range below 20 on bear campaigns.

A bear market happens when RSI first violates the bull market range low which it did in the 2000-2002 decline. But a confirmed bear market only occurs after the first rally fails to go back above the bear market range high (65) and once again plunges below the bull market minimum (40).

So here we are despite the tremendous surge since the 2002 low getting us almost back to all time high and perched on the top Gann level, where is RSI?
Not even close to its highs and below the 65 bull market threshold.
Also note the bearish RSI divergence on these last two peaks. Numerous other non-confirmations surfaced as well. The BKX and NDX I have shown here.

Last year I gave reasons why despite many technical features marking a larger degree top in June I did not believe it was "the" 4-year cycle top. I think I posted it in the Gann for Stoolies thread.

This week another berage of technical indicators pointed to a major top and this time it is in the prime time window for a 4-yr cycle topping event.
I still need some minor confirmations to unfold but this time it sure looks like the real thing. When I do call it, it will be right here. I generally take out some SP and DOW LEAP puts and will let you know which ones if I do.
Stay tuned!

Hank

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#35 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 20 March 2005 - 10:18 AM

From McLaren on Gann regarding major market tops and the 90 day cycle:

"90 day cycle is the most powerful division of the one year cycle."
"Ninety days from all significant highs and lows must be watched for a major change in trend."
"It is a cycle that ends blow offs"
"Distribution occurred in the large consolidation before the final blow off move"

DOW did 90 trading days exactly to MOB resistance with divergent double top.

I have never seen things this dead here at CS...bears and gold bugs both...completely humiliated into submission...
THis is what marks the least expected :rolleyes:

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#36

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Posted 21 March 2005 - 02:32 AM

My system similar to yours looks for divergence using RSI and MACD in multiple time frames. Right now Daily, Weekly and Monthly divergences can be found in SPX, NDX and DJI. Overseas, Australia has Weekly and Daily but not Monthly.

The only thing that is keeping me from going fully short is the Megaphone pattern in the SPX. If this pattern play out, we would need to take out the Jan lows and then go back up to about 1240 for the final top.

Lets see what happens with the bounce when we get to that trendline. We should at least have daily divergences by the time we get there.

#37 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 08:38 AM

CT Weekend Update:

CT remains on SELL, we are short QQQQ from 36.66 and in money currently.
HOM long term SP on SELL since 3-16-2005.

Mr Hanky is officially declaring a 4-year cycle top in March 2005.


If I am wrong this market will very shortly BLAST higher and work up to a
higher level in June for a top, I very highly doubt it after this weeks action and so I am calling the top here.

We are also holding a long position in RYJUX (short bonds) from 19.0, currently trading at 19.21.


All miner, gold positions closed now and with a profit thanks to UNWPX and AEM.
Holding CCJ.

I hold my trading cash in VMSXX - Vanguard Tax Exempt MM


In my non-trading accounts I have long term allocations in:
HSGFX- Hussman Growth 25%
HSTRX- Hussman Income 25%
OIH - very heavy here 18%
PSAFX - Prudent Safe Harbor 5%
UNWPX - US Global PM 2%
PSPFX - US Global Natural Resources 5%

Cash - 20%

I now trade most of the Cash using HOM signals!

Below is the BKX weekly = three big ugly black crows always spell LT trouble.

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#38 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 08:42 AM

NDX pinballed between TL/FIB and 200 DMA here but I think it will break down for at least one more leg before any meaningful rally.

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#39 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 08:43 AM

Looking to short the HHH here and keep a SL just above 60.
Let you know next week.

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#40 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 08:47 AM

Crows also pecked the AORD, tells me the markets are in for some LT trouble and as I see it a big top here. Going to 4000 at least initially.

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#41 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 09:08 AM

VIX Osc in bullish reversal zone but so far no actual move to indicate it.
A rally next week still should still be met with one more jab or leg down to exit short trade...

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#42 stanley

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Posted 26 March 2005 - 06:31 PM

Hanky,

if 4-years cycle top has passed, why you still hold (long) HSGFX & HSTRX?

#43 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 28 March 2005 - 08:35 PM

HSGFX and HSTRX are "hedge mutual funds" run by John Hussman, in my view one of the most knowledgable and capable managers in the business. Therefore he adjusts "exposure" to market risk and there is no need to attempt to "time" in and out these funds.

On that note, John has just increased his defensive hedging. It is fun to see how his moves do usually fall in step with my HOM signals, usually within a week or two!

Many short term indicators went almost to buy last week but so far all the market has been able to do is a very weak holding pattern. I am looking for more downside and positioned for such.

Hussman Weekly Market Comment

Hank

#44 stanley

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Posted 29 March 2005 - 12:10 AM

Hank,

Thanks your very informative reply

HSGFX and HSTRX are "hedge mutual funds" run by John Hussman,  in my view one of the most knowledgable and capable managers in the business.  Therefore he adjusts "exposure" to market risk and there is no need to attempt to "time" in and out these funds.

On that note, John has just increased his defensive hedging.  It is fun to see how his moves do usually fall in step with my HOM signals, usually within a week or two!

Many short term indicators went almost to buy last week but so far all the market has been able to do is a very weak holding pattern.  I am looking for more downside and positioned for such.

Hussman Weekly Market Comment

Hank

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#45 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 04:26 AM

CT signals cash 3-30-2005 at 36.68.

OUT at break even on this trade.

HOM remains on SELL since 3-16-05.

Last few days has shown growing potential of strong rally from a deeply Dover Sole condition and CT has indicated best not to be short at this juncture.

Hank





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