FF, Stanley, and estool,
Thanks for speaking up that's enough to keep me posting!
Here is the DOW and as most of you know by now that do read my stuff I am a big RSI fan. If I had to choose only one lower panel indicator, it would be tough between my own HI-5 and RSI but I still think RSI would win out!
The HI-5 uses volume data and that isn't always there on many important indexes such as the HUI,CRB,$,etc.
So here we have the DOW monthly from end of 40-60 bull, 60-80 bear,80-2000 bull and now the 2000-> BEAR. Absolutely nothing technically supports that we are still in or back in a long term secular bull market.
RSI has distinct bull and bear market RANGES, they vary slightly from index to index and stock to stock but analysis of anything that has a long history, the ranges can be readily identified. So what is this chart below telling us?
1) DOW RSI bull market bottoms hold above 40 and exceed 65 often on bull campaigns well into the 80+zone.
2) DOW RSI bear markets can't ever manage to exceed 65 into the bull range and they often plunge below 40 into the bottom of the bear range below 20 on bear campaigns.
A bear market happens when RSI first violates the bull market range low which it did in the 2000-2002 decline. But a confirmed bear market only occurs after the first rally fails to go back above the bear market range high (65) and once again plunges below the bull market minimum (40).
So here we are despite the tremendous surge since the 2002 low getting us almost back to all time high and perched on the top Gann level, where is RSI?Not even close to its highs and below the 65 bull market threshold.
Also note the bearish RSI divergence on these last two peaks. Numerous other non-confirmations surfaced as well. The BKX and NDX I have shown here.
Last year I gave reasons why despite many technical features marking a larger degree top in June I did not believe it was "the" 4-year cycle top. I think I posted it in the Gann for Stoolies thread.
This week another berage of technical indicators pointed to a major top and this time it is in the prime time window for a 4-yr cycle topping event.
I still need some minor confirmations to unfold but this time it sure looks like the real thing. When I do call it, it will be right here. I generally take out some SP and DOW LEAP puts and will let you know which ones if I do.