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Pushing Plastic: Deep Subprime Lending


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#31 ///M

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 07:41 PM

I'd like people's opinion on my thinking. Windy touched on this several times the last several months. The S. American currency crisis was followed by a rally in their indicies. Since their currency devalued faster than equities the inclination was to then buy stock and offset the loss.

As long as the dollar declines and foreigners continue to buy our debt, stocks ought to have a tailwind. However, once bonds crack and a dropping dollar does not help stocks then it should be lights out.

Until then it seems the more conservative play is long XAU/physical, and more aggressive is long XAU/physical and short QQQs/SPYs (or do I have that backwards?).

WTFDIK

#32 psyche doctor

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 07:55 PM

Taipei, Taiwan: If you can pick it up by two fingers, it is yours. So far no one did (Gold bar, weight 12.5Kg)(but hoster cancelled this offer as of yesterday)
(source: udnnews.com 11/05)
Posted Image



I know a guy who could lift that with two fingers. He is probably by all means a freak-of-nature. In his younger days, at 160 lbs. he could bench press over 450 lbs. He was also a professional arm wrestler who had freakishly unbelievable hands, probably some of the biggest most powerful of any guy his size. At one competition, he won his weight class, which he always did. Then he competed for th over all against a contender weighting almost twice as much at a lean 310. He beat him. In competition, he was usually the winner or runner up.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#33 GregFokker

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:09 PM

Taipei, Taiwan: If you can pick it up by two fingers, it is yours. So far no one did (Gold bar, weight 12.5Kg)(but hoster cancelled this offer as of yesterday)
(source: udnnews.com 11/05)
Posted Image



I know a guy who could lift that with two fingers. He is probably by all means a freak-of-nature. In his younger days, at 160 lbs. he could bench press over 450 lbs. He was also a professional arm wrestler who had freakishly unbelievable hands, probably some of the biggest most powerful of any guy his size. At one competition, he won his weight class, which he always did. Then he competed for th over all against a contender weighting almost twice as much at a lean 310. He beat him. In competition, he was usually the winner or runner up.

Little bit of dried contact cement on the fingertips could do it, methings. Just the sloping angle that dekes em out.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#34

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:19 PM

The beauty :)

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#35

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:20 PM

... and the beast :lol:

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#36

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:23 PM

I don't think there's no stopping gold now.

My guess is we gap up and jump the creek on Monday.

Hold on for the ride. The short term target is $464 B)

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#37

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:33 PM

Possible trend channel:

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#38

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:34 PM

Possible trend channel:

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#39 wndysrf

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:34 PM

With respect to gold, I am concerned that the stocks have badly lagged the physical in the rally we have had.
I've been holding NXG and PMU for quite some time now and, if I overlay the charts of both with that of gold itself well, you know what I mean.
Am I missing something or am I just in two crappy juniors?

Crappy juniors.

I got rid of PMU a long time ago.

But I have some too, like GSS......

KGC, NG, BGO and WHT are by far the strongest of the little guys.........

XAU is outperforming the HUI by a bit, due to the weakness in S. Africans.
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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:35 PM

This could get really ugly:

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#41

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:42 PM

Watch out when this junior breaks out.

It's built an enormous amount of cause.

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#42 jickiss

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:46 PM

jickiss is back!

and

Dear GTNWORSE:

In re your question posted above, jickiss wants to repeat a few concepts from months ago. for the sake of attribution, jickiss credits Mr. Sinclair, but most of the ideas were here in Stoolville, oftentimes First, but the truth will carry the day, in the end.

1. gold is the only Real money on Earth.

2. gold had been a 22 year bear market...23 year bear? anyway, a long bear.

3. any managements that survived are "bear market in gold" thinkers. the morons running the miners are basically BLIND to the real potential of a vastly higher gold price.

4. Da Cot has gotten RICH by shorting Gold, the Gold Miners, and by selling derivatives.

5. Da Cot will be destoyed by the coming advance in Gold.

6. Da Cot will ratio trade the Gold miners, up, positive Ratio, eventually, to try to make back the losses they are about to enjoy in their short positon in the metal.

7. As Marky Mark has just posted, eventually, da funds and da herd of sheeple will drive the gold mining shares waaayyyyy up.

8. also, in re # 7 above, please note that the Cot firms, that have been Gold miner negative ARE THE VERY SAME PEOPLE THAT WILL CAUSE TO BE WRITTEN GOLD POSTIVIE RESEARCH REPORTS, SOME DAY, AND WHO WILL TEACH MINERS TO "BEAT BY A PENNY" OR WHATEVER....

9. jickiss has favoured gg for the -0- debt position, for its un-hedged policy, for the GREAT REALITY that it is headquartered in Canada, and its largest mine is in Canada, and, for sure, CANANDA IS A GREAT COUNTRY WITH VAST EARL RESOURCES AND VERY WISE POLITICAL AND BANKING CLASS.

10. GG
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#43 dozer

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:48 PM

wndy, tanks for your picks for juniors. I was in KGC a year ago, but it was going nowhere at the time :P I'll check into it again.

If anyone has opinions on MDG and AEM, I'd appreciate it.

I was reading an industry-analysis last night, pointing to the very cheap Q-ratio valuation of the juniors as compared to the majors. The thesis was that any time that big a delta develops, M&A activity heats up. The point was also made that it can be cheaper to acquire reserves by acquisition than exploration.

I remember there was talk last year that AEM might be an acq. target of GG; having mines nearby to GG, etc.. Does anyone have any skinny on that situation? Jickiss ?

tanks!

#44 jickiss

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:50 PM

jickiss is back!

and

oops, something posted before it was ended...

10. GG has it cash in a lot of canadian doolars, which will go above 0ne-to-0ne soon, versus da Merican doolar.

hence, gg seems to be the natural buy and hold miner to what remains inside of the "brain" of your jickiss.

THE KEY, AS YOU SAY, GTNWORSE, IS THE RATIO BETWEEN ANY MINER AND $GOLD.

PLS STUDY THE FOLLOWING CHART, AND ASK YOURSELF HOW ANY OF YOUR OWN LONGS LOOK, VERSUS $GOLD.

regards to all!
jickiss
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#45 Hiding Bear

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Posted 05 November 2004 - 08:51 PM

I also believe that this could be the exact top. Interest rate anxiety should hit Monday.

Dollar continues it's controlled descent.

Dollar going down is good for gold, silver, oil, etc.

Savings rates are incredibly low and may even be headed negative. September shows .2% personal savings rate.

http://research.stlo...ies/PSAVERT/112

The housing bubble plate wobbled on it's axis today as treasuries sold off.

It's already negative. Personal income figures for August/September includes an expected $47 billion in insurance reimbursements for hurricane damage, which at first glance seems excessive. However they probably did not even receive that $47B by September:

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: SEPTEMBER 2004

Personal income increased $15.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income
(DPI) increased $9.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $49.8 billion, or 0.6 percent. In
August, personal income increased $25.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $20.0 billion, or
0.2 percent, and PCE decreased $6.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

  2004
May June July Aug. Sep.
  (Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.5   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.2

Disposable personal income:
Current dollars   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.2   0.1
Chained (2000) dollars 0.1   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.0

Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars   1.0 -0.3   1.2 -0.1   0.6
Chained (2000) dollars 0.6 -0.6   1.2 -0.1   0.5


  The September and August estimates of personal income reflect the effects of
Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, which hit the southeastern part of the United
States during these months. BEA made largely offsetting adjustments to several components
of personal income. Rental income of persons and proprietors' income were reduced by
$40.5 billion (annual rate) in September and $13.6 billion (annual rate) in August to reflect
uninsured losses of residential and business property. "Other current transfer receipts from
business (net)" was boosted by $33.0 billion (annual rate) in September and $13.6 (annual
rate) billion in August to reflect net insurance settlements (actual losses less expected losses)
paid to persons. Because other effects of the hurricanes were embedded in BEA's source data
and could not be separately identified, BEA did not attempt to quantify their impact.


http://www.bea.doc.g...newsrelease.htm





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