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#241 DrStool

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 12:30 AM

doc, I'm still short (down about 1200) on two 100 spy shorts..

reassure me.. we are still in a secular bear market (which is in another bagholder bull market).

I am glad i'm just a toe-in-the water short, but I "long" to be tits-short.

edit: delete buys, substitute shorts

ano-

It depends on your time frame. I am surprised to hear that you are short. As you know the cmaps are above current levels on cycles longer than 6-7 weeks.

I will be updating the long term outlook in the morning. Again, as you know, the long term cmaps are a good deal higher than current levels.

This can change. As always, it's day to day, and week to week. Forecasting and identifying the trend are two different things. Traders need only be able to identify the trend. Forecasting is useful as a framework. If the market begins to deviate from the forecast path, it gives you a basis for action. I would be curious to know what the basis for getting short last week would have been, since both the forecasting tools, and trend identification tools, were consistently pointing higher all week.

I have seen a couple people say last week that they were shorting at a time when all the indicators were pointing up. In some cases they gave a rationale, and although I may not have agreed, at least they had one, as well as an exit strategy. In other cases, no rationale was stated, in which case, I was mystified.

As for whether we are in a secular bear or not, again I will defer to the indicators on that. They are on the cusp, and we'll see tomorrow what last week's rally did to that. But it's irrelevant for trading purposes, is it not? Look what the market did 1971 through 1/73, during a secular bear market. I think this market has echoes of that one, politically, and socially too.

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#242 Drano

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 12:49 AM

Breaking news -- NATIONAL HOLIDAY FOR STOOLVILLE

China hosts World Toilet Conference!

Nov. 19 is World Toilet Day!

http://start.earthli...D8663R280_story
Of course I'm caustic!

#243

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 12:49 AM

One of the pitfalls of giving an interview once every three or four months is that, as soon as a day or two afterwards things can change radically, as they did in the case of my last interview with Ike. While subscribers to the newsletter get daily updates which go with the flow of the market, those who only hear the interview get a different impression, which isthe way it is. If they don't subscribe, they don't know what they're missing.  Too bad for them. Those who do subscribe, do know.  

So for those of you who do know, I think you will appreciate the response I gave to this email, which I received tonight.  I would point out that, if you send an email to any publication, you do run the risk of seeing your name in lights, so it behooves you to think carefully about what it is you want to say. 

I have listened to you on Ike Iossif's site for a couple of years and am amazed that in all your interviews there is no acknoledgement of how wrong you have been about the stock market for the last couple of years, at least missing and poopooing the significant rally from the March 03 lows.

Do you have a track record of your calls that I can review? I am more than willing to be wrong about my assessment, if you have made calls between your interviesw that was profitable in stocks. You readily put down those that are unwilling to admit their mistakes, making a mockery of Greenspan's policies, but your credibility is suspect with your inaccurate stock market calls and apparent unwillingness to address them in your Ike interviews.

I truly am willing to be wrong about my assessment, Matt Pavich


and my response:

Dear Matt-

Don't worry. You are.

Doc

How about the following response:
Dear Matt
I am sitting in the "smallest " room in my house, and your letter in front of me.
It will be soon "behind" me :D
Doc

#244

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 01:01 AM

I think that those who have not subscribed to the Anals, even if only for the trial
subscription, simply cannot have any idea of the tremendous amount of information
and analysis that Doc is providing. Much of it cannot be found anywhere else.
Yet here it is, all in one place, and my curiosity would have to take a look.

And its also an opportunity to learn.
Even I am beginning to understand the cmaps. They are powerful.

Try it, you'll wonder what took you so long.

I, Sherlock, have endorsed this statement. :P

#245 DrStool

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 01:04 AM

Are there any mental health professionals out there who can tell me why I would waste even one second giving these people the time of day. I must be an idiot. I have to learn to stop.

Matt Pavich wrote:

>nice evidence.
>


Dear Matt-

I apologize. I do not have a "track record". My market letter has been around for four very tough years. That is a track record. The fact that Ike Iossif, who is one of the best technicians in the world, reads my analysis regularly, invites me to be on his program, and widely excerpts my work in his posts on Financial Sense, is a track record. My subscriber base continues to grow. That is a track record.

I am not an investment advisor, and I do not make recomendations. I present indicators, analysis, logic, and conclusions. As a result of reviewing the indicators every day, all day, and applying analysis and logic,  I "called" THE low in gold stocks in April 2001. I called a low in bond yields at the exact bottom. I called an intermediate bottom in March 2003, got bearish too early and missed 100 points of the S&P rally in  2003, reported 6 month cycle buy signals on August 11, 2003, and sell signals in January 2004. I forecast a trading range market for this year, and the indicators I follow successfully identified highs and lows of that range within a day or two. I called the exact top in gold and gold stocks last Spring, forecast a corrective year for this year, and called the exact low this summer. I forecast that the dollar would be in the low 80's over a year ago. The market moves, and the indicators I follow respond to those moves on a timely basis. I do not publish or tout these facts because I am not an advisor, and I do not tell people what to do. I'm not a tout, and people who tout their records are usually liars. I am proud of my record, but I don't advertise it. I'm an anal cyst and a jounalist, and I publish because I love it.

If you feel you cannot spring the $16.95 for a trial subscription in order to familiarize yourself with the actual record, and find out what I tell subscribers on a day to day basis, if you form snap judgements on the basis of an interview, without study of, or curiosity about the analysis involved,  then this service is not for you.  This service is not for people looking for simplistic answers to complex questions, or the get rich quick holy grail. It is for people with a deep interest in technical and monetary analysis, and who have a deep conviction that there is something terribly wrong, not only in the financial sphere, but the political sphere, which negatively impacts our day to day lives.  It is for those, who having come to grips with the facts, view the world from a bearish perspective.

Based on your original email, I can tell you that this service is not for you. You are not a bear.  I inferred from your letter that your first thought, perhaps your only thought was,  "How much money could I make from this guy? He's always wrong."  The fact that you won't spend $16.95 to find out tells me that you really aren't that interested.

But I do appreciate your taking the time to write to me and express your thoughts. I hope that this email answers your questions. No need to respond.

Doc



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#246

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 01:22 AM

well Doc ...No one promised him the Truth would be pretty.. ;) Quite a thorough retort..

#247 FranciscoTheMan

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 01:26 AM

Somebody send that guy a link to Cramer's newsletter ASAP.
One day sometime in the future he'll [Cramer] come blubbering and whimpering on air half naked and smeared with his own feces. It'll be the buy signal of the decade. --PhatBubble
One thing I think is certain. The more the world's central banks act to suppress the cost of long term capital, the more of it the market will demand, thereby keeping upward pressure on yields until the CBs have no choice but to relent. At that point we should see a massive final blowoff similar to that which occurred in 1980 and 1981. --Doctor Stool
In a topsy turvy world, growing more and more insane by the minute, terminal eccentricities, like buying Fanny, are barely noticed--Beardrech
"[George W. Bush] is Woodrow Wilson on amphetamines." --Patrick J. Buchanan
"I simply don't know where the money is." --John Corzine

#248 Drano

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 01:29 AM

Somebody send that guy a link to Cramer's newsletter ASAP.

Now THAT'S cruel and unusual punishment.
Of course I'm caustic!

#249 On The Beach

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 01:35 AM

SEC IS SAID TO EXAMINE STOCK PRICING BY BIG BROKERS /// Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating dozen brokerage firms -- including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Ameritrade, Charles Schwab and E Trade Financial -- on suspicion they failed to secure best available price for stocks for customers... Developing...Matt Drudge :D




RE: earlier posts 01DUC996... retired AFMer. 2 jimmrogers type tours.

#250 FranciscoTheMan

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 01:45 AM

Somebody send that guy a link to Cramer's newsletter ASAP.

Now THAT'S cruel and unusual punishment.

Doc needs the utmost tranquility as he attempts to pick the tops and bottoms around here.
One day sometime in the future he'll [Cramer] come blubbering and whimpering on air half naked and smeared with his own feces. It'll be the buy signal of the decade. --PhatBubble
One thing I think is certain. The more the world's central banks act to suppress the cost of long term capital, the more of it the market will demand, thereby keeping upward pressure on yields until the CBs have no choice but to relent. At that point we should see a massive final blowoff similar to that which occurred in 1980 and 1981. --Doctor Stool
In a topsy turvy world, growing more and more insane by the minute, terminal eccentricities, like buying Fanny, are barely noticed--Beardrech
"[George W. Bush] is Woodrow Wilson on amphetamines." --Patrick J. Buchanan
"I simply don't know where the money is." --John Corzine

#251 FranciscoTheMan

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 03:28 AM

If AMR (American Airlines) has not closed above ~$9.70 when this rally in the broads reverses, I will be strongly inclined to short it with an initial target of ~$7.00. What happens to shorts if AMR declares bankruptcy? Is there anything tricky I need to know before shorting this pneumonia suffering flea bitten dog?
One day sometime in the future he'll [Cramer] come blubbering and whimpering on air half naked and smeared with his own feces. It'll be the buy signal of the decade. --PhatBubble
One thing I think is certain. The more the world's central banks act to suppress the cost of long term capital, the more of it the market will demand, thereby keeping upward pressure on yields until the CBs have no choice but to relent. At that point we should see a massive final blowoff similar to that which occurred in 1980 and 1981. --Doctor Stool
In a topsy turvy world, growing more and more insane by the minute, terminal eccentricities, like buying Fanny, are barely noticed--Beardrech
"[George W. Bush] is Woodrow Wilson on amphetamines." --Patrick J. Buchanan
"I simply don't know where the money is." --John Corzine

#252 FeedFool

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Posted 08 November 2004 - 03:55 AM

someone said the Dow could go to 11,000.  I'm starting to believe it....
10,794 is the prior high

Friday it upthrusted the prior swing high 10,390.64 and closed below it by a few points.  Would that be a signal to short it... Monday the program trading computers are probably already timed to take action.   Would you want to guess....

:blink: :blink:


:o do u still think spoon will hit 1260???? :o :huh:

or was it lot less???

Feed - if I had a preference it would be that the SPX is building a top now in the 1170 area as it did back in 2002

Doesn't tops get made on exuberance and bullishness? When was the last time a major top formed when there were plenty of bears around?

Well, reality on the SPX set in when the Dinapoli Double repo failed at 1124. From here on up I can only make a wild ass guess to how far things fly. Monday would be a good day to end it all.

Thanks Charmin

I have a slightly higher target price then your based on 2/3 rally has already gone.

How ironic it would be that Joke wouldn’t make new high around 20th of November but it will do better in the New Year. That also leaves 1256 a possible target price out standing which will capitulate most bears.

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