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B4 The Bell Thursday November 4

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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:10 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

From MH and Butterfield:

$ at 84.55 Doc said " let's wait and see what happens at 84.50" so what happens at 84.50 If it does not bounce here, we are broke.

Dollah index quote

"We have breakdown, Captain."

"Aye, Aye. Dive, Dive ... into the vasty Deep!" :D

The Dollar's Long-Term Direction: Down

Published: November 4, 2004

The election drove the dollar all over - down when it looked like President Bush would lose, up briefly when Senator Kerry conceded defeat.

But ultimately, the dollar's fate never hinged on the outcome of the presidential election. Now that the dust has settled, the currency is back on its long-term path: downward. According to most economists, it is likely to stay there over the next four years.

"There is a certain inevitability to the decline,'' said Alan Blinder, an economist at Princeton University who served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and was an adviser to President Bill Clinton. "I think the Treasury understands this. It would be nice if they would say so."


Deficits and Tax System Changes in Bush's Second-Term Economy

Published: November 4, 2004

WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 - Even as President Bush was celebrating his election victory on Wednesday, his Treasury Department provided an ominous reminder about the economic challenges ahead.

After four years of rapidly rising budget deficits, the Treasury announced on Wednesday morning that the government will borrow $147 billion in the first three months of 2005 - a new quarterly record, but one that is likely to be eclipsed before that year is out.

Empowered by his own victory and stronger Republican majorities in Congress, Mr. Bush has pledged to push an economic agenda that could be more ambitious than the $1.9 trillion worth of tax cuts over 10 years that he signed in his first term.

The new economic agenda will focus on two big goals. One is expected to aim for a fundamental overhaul of the income tax, very likely in the direction of a system that lessens even further the taxation of investment income; the other to push for a partial privatization of Social Security that could eventually reduce costs but require borrowing more than $2 trillion over the next two decades.


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:15 AM

How did exit polls start avalanche of inaccuracy?

It was America's worst-kept secret.

The information even was powerful enough to move financial markets.

And, as it turns out, it wasn't true.

John Kerry was not beating President Bush in Ohio and Florida and on the cusp of becoming the new leader of the free world despite what confidential exit-poll results widely distributed on the Internet on Tuesday seemed to indicate.

In the 2000 election, scoop-hungry TV networks used exit polls to call the key state of Florida for eventual loser Al Gore.

This year, it was the bloggers' turn to be led astray. A few influential Web sites got hold of poll results showing Kerry with a small lead in key battleground states, word spread at hyper-speed, and soon political insiders were convinced that Kerry was going to be the president-elect.

What went wrong with those exit polls?



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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:22 AM

Religion-based voters provided critical edge
anal cysts cite emphasis in Iowa on 'moral values'

By Brian C. Mooney and Raja Mishra, Globe Staff | November 4, 2004

Ohio is the reason President Bush won reelection, but Iowa may be a better example of one reason Senator John F. Kerry lost -- a large turnout of religious voters concerned about ''moral values."

''There was a huge turnout of conservative Christians in western Iowa and northwestern Iowa," said Dennis J. Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines. Bush trounced Kerry in that part of the state. ''To them, a Massachusetts Democrat is an elitist, someone who looks down on people of faith."



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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:26 AM

Me thinks thou doth protest too much (considering the results)

Republicans complain exit polls were erroneous

By Rowan Scarborough

Republicans are fuming again over erroneous exit polls that showed President Bush losing re-election and over television networks quickly calling some states for Sen. John Kerry while withholding such predictions for solid Bush states.

Although the Associated Press-led polling consortium was eventually proven wrong by actual hard tallies, the widely distributed exit polls prompted a number of TV pundits to talk on election night of how Mr. Bush likely had lost.

The Associated Press and TV networks do not publicly release the spreads, but the numbers leaked out to numerous Internet sites.



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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:30 AM

Straight from the source himself:

As Mr. Bush's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, put it in a briefing with reporters yesterday, "The way this works is that someone leaks the exit polls to somebody.'' He went on, "within 20 minutes, with BlackBerrys, everybody's got the exit polls.''


#6 machinehead


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:31 AM

The feisty British press savages Shrubco's re-election, while America's pathetic lapdog 'journalists' (most of whom supported Kerry) dutifully lick his boots --

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By the way, re-election is no shield against Tecumseh's curse.

Cast your mind back to the wraith of Frank Roosevelt, cigarette holder still jauntily dangling from his lips as he roasts hot dogs in Hell. He completed his 1940 term, but succumbed to illness just weeks after being reinaugurated in 1945. :mellow:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#7 machinehead


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:37 AM

From the article linked by Plunger above:

The [exit] polls initially showed Mr. Bush losing Ohio and Florida, virtually assuring the president would not achieve the 270 electoral votes he needed.
"There were a couple of the initial tranches that were way out of line with the final results," said Michael Barone, a columnist for U.S. News & World Report who manned the Fox News Channel "decision desk" Tuesday night.
In the end, it was the Bush campaign that appeared to have the most accurate polling on the two make-or-break states. Bush operatives, including campaign manager Ken Mehlman, took to the airways to correct the network reporting. They showed, precinct-by-precinct, how the president would pull out a victory, contrary to exit poll projections.

Wow ... that's what you call forensic statistics, huh? Predicting turnarounds in real time data before they happen. IM-pressive!

Read between the lines, folks. Why are they trashing the exit polls? Probably because the exit polls were correct, but black boxes fiddled the actual vote count. :ph34r:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:47 AM

Plunger... Dick Morris on O'Rilleys show yesterday was all over this "seeding" and exit polls "misinformation" leak. He says there should be a congressional inquiry. It's a Federal crime to tamper with an election. Also, apparently, there was one firm, just one, that was contracted by all the media outlets to take the raw exit poll results; which are then taken by the entire media pool and only then individually analized / interpreted by each station's pundents for their implication or significance.

Morris knows the score, but he's part of the misinformation system; so back to square one.


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 08:52 AM

4:50am Pacific time.. Metals having a great morning...Gold up $3.70, Silver up .13, Plat up $15, Pal up $6.

Hope it sticks..

MH, didn't you call for a breakout in the Metals today ?? :rolleyes: nice..

#10 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 04 November 2004 - 09:09 AM

The election is over. Today will be no different than any other day in the Shrubco administration that we have all endured over the last 4 years. We can all sit around and bemoan how it was stolen or the people were duped, but the reality is what it is. There will be no recriminations, there will be no investigations into Shrubco's past sins with a Republican House and Senate. We will all have to wait for the Shrub and his merry gang of thugs to shoot themselves in the foot or some other hair covered appendage.

If there was any failure in this election it was on the Democrats side for offering up such a wimpy ticket with a campaign run by a bunch of idiots. The most obvious conspiracy in this whole mess was by the Democrats who seemed intent on shooting themselves in the foot at every turn. It was almost as if they didn't want to win, but nearly ended up doing so in spite of their best efforts.

There are many days I wish I were living on an isolated plot of land with absolutely no news feeds. Just to live and be free of the constant worry brought on by the turmoil of the "outside" world.

Libertarians are anarchists with a few more years under their belts. I like and resemble that thought.

I really don't like painting a whole swath of America with the "Wacko Christian Right" brush. I know a lot of Midwesterners who are no doubt Christians of various Protestant denominations, but by no means are they whackos, snake handlers or Bible thumpers. By and large they are a quiet bunch of people who just want to live in peace and in reality are far more tolerant than they are portrayed. They hold family above all else. They vote Republican because they still hold the values of the old Republican party and the Democrats haven't done a good job of illuminating the changes that have occurred in the Republican party over the last few decades. The Democrats have done a poor job of offering viable alternatives that would spark real debate in the Christian Right ranks.

The same goes for the opposites of the Christian Right Whackos. I'm pretty sure that all liberals aren't popped out of the same mold and preprogrammed with the same thoughts. In both cases it is a small minority in each camp that grab the limelight. The majorities will gravitate towards the center and have far more in common than they have in hard line differences.

The rest of us just want to be left alone. We don't wish to be told we can or can't have abortions. We don't want the government involved in our daily lives and ideally it should be as small as the orginal intent of the Consitution. We don't want our faith or lack of to be a political issue. It is a private matter not to be bandied about.

With all of that said I for one am done discussing politics for a while. I find the whole subject matter to be just too disgusting.

I am quite confident there will be plenty of economic and financial issues for us to discuss without having to delve into endless conspiracies of politcal natures. That is not to say we shouldn't be paying attention and doing whatever we can to right the wrongs, but I think it would do us all some good if we avoid politics for a while.

#11 machinehead


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 09:10 AM

MH, didn't you call for a breakout in the Metals today ?? :rolleyes: nice..

Dec. Gold -- $429.00 +3.60
Dec. SilBAHHHHHH -- $7.28 +0.122

Will today be Gold Liberation Day (new high for 2004)?

I wait with bated breath ... :mellow:

Death to the Dollah! B)
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#12 orvack


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 09:11 AM

My Grandma supports a strong (Canadian) dollar.


#13 GregFokker


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 09:18 AM

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) - The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged Thursday amid worries about the strength of Europe's economic recovery.

The bank's 18-member governing council left the main refinancing rate at 2 percent - where it has been since a half-percentage point cut in June 2003 - during a meeting at its headquarters in Frankfurt.

AP-ES-11-04-04 0749EST

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 09:18 AM

I agree with everything you said, Yobob, but if it was election tampering, it's not politics, it's criminality.

If anyone manages to find any proof of it, things could get interesting.

Two questions are going unanswed in the discussion.

Is it possible to "seed" these polls with your own planted participants?

Is there historical evidence that exit polls influence the likelihood of voters either remaining at home or going to the polls to vote depending upon whether or not you belong to the winning or losing group? I can certainly see how young Kerry voters would have become disinclined to endure four hour lines to cast their vote given an apparent Kerry landslide. This isn't about politics per se, it's about the mechanisms and strategies used in the middle of the election process...the Internet playing a new and significant role.

If we don't learn these lessons now and take steps to correct them, we are doomed to repeat them.

#15 DrStool


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Posted 04 November 2004 - 09:24 AM

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