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#286 Hiding Bear

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 07:43 PM

Hunter, I completely agree about the "transformer" in Kuwait.  That's pure BS.

And every serious industrial-process facility I know of has complete diesel genset backup anyway.

Without Iraqi oil flowing, the world econ. has zero margin....and it seems obvious that there will always be -something-...a power failure in Kuwait, a strike in Norway, a new tax in Venezuela....

I'd expect oil to stay right were it is, or keep getting popped back up at every new problem.

The explanation that make the most sense to me is that OBL signaled in his speech (or already planned) for undercover Kuwaitees to sabatoge the power.

Newsweek and other sources said that they were closing in on OBL, just the kind of October surprise GWB would want. The part of the new tape not disclosed (censored by Qatar at the behest of GWB) is an attack on GWB and his family, not the kind of October surprise that GWB wanted.

US Hoped for Bin Laden Breakthrough: Newsweek
Sun Oct 31, 2004 05:50 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence agents recently thought they were on the verge of a breakthrough in the search for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, Newsweek magazine reported on Sunday.
The magazine quoted U.S. officials as saying that "just a few weeks ago" the net was closing on an al Qaeda operative in Pakistan who, it was hoped, could lead them to bin Laden.

"It looked like we were really close, maybe one or two people away," the magazine quoted one official as saying. "There was a lot of optimism around here."

Newsweek did not say what went wrong with the operation to catch bin Laden, whose group carried out the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington.

Bin Laden appeared in a videotape broadcast in part in the United States on Friday, the first time in more than a year that such a tape had been aired.

The al Qaeda leader, in a move apparently timed to coincide with the final days of campaigning in the U.S. presidential election, derided President Bush and warned of possible new attacks.


http://www.reuters.c...storyID=6668966

Once the tape reached Qatar, a copy was delivered to U.S. officials there and transmitted to the United States. When the White House learned about the tape, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice told President Bush aboard Air Force One while he was between campaign stops Friday morning. Bush then held a videoconference call with Rice and the FBI and CIA directors, along with top Justice and Homeland Security officials.

U.S. officials asked al-Jazeera to delay broadcasting the tape, but the network turned down the request.

An hour before the tape aired Friday, and after U.S. intelligence anal cysts had concluded that the speaker actually was bin Laden, Bush's Democratic rival, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), and his campaign learned about the tape from the White House.

Among the many unanswered questions about the tape is whether its entire content was broadcast. One officials who asked not to be identified said that the tape was originally 18 minutes in length, but only 14 minutes were broadcast.


http://www.washingto...t30.html?sub=AR

#287 brian4

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 07:43 PM

The Market has taken a poll-Spoo is 3 and change below fair value, NutsDuck 8 below fair value and $ going down the drain! ;)

#288 K Wave Rider

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 07:48 PM

The Market has taken a poll-Spoo is 3 and change below fair value, NutsDuck 8 below fair value and $ going down the drain! ;)

Yeah...how 'bout those markets anyway.. :rolleyes:

Euro up 40 pips outta the gate..

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 07:51 PM

Hunter, I completely agree about the "transformer" in Kuwait. That's pure BS.

And every serious industrial-process facility I know of has complete diesel genset backup anyway.

Without Iraqi oil flowing, the world econ. has zero margin....and it seems obvious that there will always be -something-...a power failure in Kuwait, a strike in Norway, a new tax in Venezuela....

I'd expect oil to stay right were it is, or keep getting popped back up at every new problem.

Over time, maybe shorter than one may think, there will be higher-lows as
oil comsumption/price increases. Some of those increases will be rather steep.

30-years has taught we Americans absolutely nothing except to be more dependent on governments expedient solutions rather than attacking the causes.

I have seen business men saying that they need MORE government intervention
to protect them without even addressing remedies at law available to them. <_<

BIG business is part of the national slush-fund trust for the politicos. :shocked

#290 microdon

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 07:51 PM

Dollar index already below 85 tonight, and I suspect precious metals will open higher.

But I forgot--this isn't germane to this thread this weekend, not when we can talk about Waco sodomizers and whether anyone in their right mind really supports such behavior.

Doc, I love you for making this forum possible, but I honestly believe Kerry is only different in shadow rather than substance. And, IMHO, you are getting awfully testy!!! :(

Mars--we need to go from a republic to a democracy? I thought we already had, and that is part of the problem.

#291 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 07:55 PM

$ going down the drain!


Unless this reverses soon it'll be a very long drain!

Last quarterly deficit new record >$170b

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#292 dozer

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 07:55 PM

The Market has taken a poll-Spoo is 3 and change below fair value, NutsDuck 8 below fair value and $ going down the drain! ;)

Yeah...how 'bout those markets anyway.. :rolleyes:

Euro up 40 pips outta the gate..

:D :D :D

But K-wave, was it you who were saying last week in IDS that a down open commonly leads to an up day? Maybe that was Slothrop...

HB, tanks for the word on the binnie tape. Does anyone know if any sites have a -full- transcription?

Butter; whatever happened with that Indian Air Force thing...where they "spotted" binnie ? (altho it's beyond me how you could tell one person from another, from the air, in the mountains... :P )

#293 Butterfield 8

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:00 PM

eh? Indian air force? no idea.

#294 dozer

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:03 PM

sorry Butter...I thought you had posted a link this weekend to a Debka thing about BL being spotted by them. Must've been someone else.

#295 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:06 PM

Without Iraqi oil flowing, the world econ. has zero margin....and it seems obvious that there will always be -something-...a power failure in Kuwait, a strike in Norway, a new tax in Venezuela....

I'd expect oil to stay right were it is, or keep getting popped back up at every new problem.



High oil prices are the result of limited, spare productive capacity; competition between the US and China for crude imports (spurred by strong demand growth); and historically low volumes of oil storage inventories in OECD countries.
Natural gas prices remain equally firm in the US, hovering in the neighborhood of $5/Mcf. Strong energy prices are being maintained by unabated demand growth, including governmentally mandated fuel switching, principally for environmental reasons.
The falling dollar is also exacerbating energy costs. Kind of a negative feedback situation as the deficit climbs in part to buying oil imports.

This is and continues as the place to be!

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#296 Mars

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:08 PM

tanks Plunger, Bizarro.

Hanky, Mogambo commonly cites "one in five" I think it is, for gov employees. I've assumed his numbers are correct, since when he's not the crazy Mogambo :P , he seems to have a real financial gig :lol:

I wonder what else is in his 20% that's not accounted for in the 15% you cited?

Also, those are direct-emps only, and from personal observations, I believe it far understates the total. A local example: We're in serious forest-fire country here. The USFS =contracts out= the ground crews....yet they're on much of the year. The BLM =contracts= out road maintenance; yet they're on year round.

I know it sounds like "oh, that's private biz", but I'm talking about companies which do NOTHING but work for the feds. It's a pretty common scenario in the west; and I'll bet there are many examples in other fields nationwide.

I have read numerous estimates that the total people -directly- dependent on gov checks is more like -30- % of total workers. Kinda scary...

Mars, you touch on a subject that Robin and I have much discussed; as our local economy is so different than where we used to live.

Around here, the major industries were literally decimated around 1990 by the fake spotted-owl scam. Literally 9 of 10 in the industry were thrown out of work. Since then, the economy has split into two parts.

There are the trust-fund babies who move up here and build "California Castles", and then there are the thousands of peons who service them. :P

This reaches it's most bizarre form in Ashland, where the 'service' jobs are totally NON-essential things like: teaching Yoga classes, walking their poodles, trimming the hedges, massage, Pilates, dance class, etc.. It's really odd to see an entire -community- based on personal vanity services!

I think your number of 30% directly dependent on a gov check is probably about right. Of course where I live in Maryland it is closer to 80%. I too ate at the trough for quite some time but I recently celebrated my first anniversary of unemployment (too old - too expensive) so where I actually live the answer is 0%. But being the resiliant guy I am I have a contingency offer pending obtaining one of the super duper clearances and I am about 98% of the way there. When I get the final t dotted and i crossed I'm really going to get expensive. :lol: :lol: Course I'm getting used to living poor - actually I've always "lived poor" it's why I have sufficient money to fund a year off without worries.

Regarding those "totally NON-essential" jobs is the fact that those folks will have work forever because the people who pay them can not conceive of not having these services performed. Some of my friends started having their lawns mowed and their houses cleaned by contract services. Now it is as if they are stuck. They can't conceive of life without such things and the expense is nothing to them.

#297 Hiding Bear

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:11 PM

The Market has taken a poll-Spoo is 3 and change below fair value, NutsDuck 8 below fair value and $ going down the drain! ;)

Yeah...how 'bout those markets anyway.. :rolleyes:

Euro up 40 pips outta the gate..

Soros and/or other forces making a last minute 'vote' of their own? :blink:

PS GregFokker your message box is full.

#298 Mars

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:13 PM

The Market has taken a poll-Spoo is 3 and change below fair value, NutsDuck 8 below fair value and $ going down the drain! ;)

Yeah...how 'bout those markets anyway.. :rolleyes:

Euro up 40 pips outta the gate..

Yeah I saw the Aussie buck up about 20 around 6 PM - I'm going long USD against it over night.

#299 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:13 PM

have read numerous estimates that the total people -directly- dependent on gov checks is more like -30- % of total workers. Kinda scary


Dozer

Yes, the stats are off the Feds own site and doesn't include private sector jobs dependent on government contracts,etc. So I think doubling the number is a fair estimate!!!! Really would not surprise me. You have my curiousity here and time to look for some web info on the subject that may clarify this.

Great posts today everyone, really enjoying it!

#300 dozer

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Posted 31 October 2004 - 08:17 PM

huh....you may be right Mars. Even if a trust fund is smashed by a dollar crash, 1/10 of 10 million is still a lotta fed reserve notes :P.

We think it'll be fascinating to watch the social changes when the relative-value of so-called blue collar and white collar work turns upside down....which is in process right now. Many of the glitz high-tech and office jobs will vanish into the mists of India....while
at the same time, it ain't easy to outsource to Asia the plumber or car-mechanic. :lol:





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