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#16

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:24 AM

Christiane Amanpour on CNN just reported live by phone that Arafat has dementia and leukemia. She reported that the Arafat era is over. The dementia is so advanced, doctors say Arafat is no longer in control of his faculties.


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#17 Hiding Bear

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:29 AM

And as magical as today’s Ongoing Easy Liquidity appears to most market professionals, there is no avoiding the reality that it must end – one way or the other – to forestall a dollar collapse.

Welcome back yobob, even if it is only for 'one' post. ;)

Actually a dollar collapse is what I envision, but it may be a long drawn out process. It's quite possible that the US will enter a recession before all other major countries. In fact I am quite sure that it will, even if they manage to postpone yet again what looks the beginning of a recession at this very moment.

Yes China and the East will suffer. They will accept losses on their existing dollar holdings to some extent before giving up on it. Yes if the US economy fell far enough it would also drag down other countries, but the US could still end up worse than most everyone else due to the high leverage and speculation built into the US financial system.

It's also possible, barring that we don't jump into any new wars, entanglements, embargoes, that a monetary policy approaching hyperinflation could forestall an economic slowdown for up to two years. But that would be fighting credit problems and higher energy prices all the way.

#18 Hiding Bear

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:33 AM

Consider the strategic significance of this! Now if we attack/invade Iran, we are attacking China's oil supply!!!

China can say to the US:

"We are going to buy up all of the world's resources with your Petrodollars, and if you attack any of our suppliers, we will sell your paper and collapse your housing bubble and turn your economy and your dollar into dust. Cash is King, and we have the cash. We will spend it all now to buy everything we need, and then threaten to pull the floor out from underneath you. We own your ass!"


China & Iran sign valuable oil & gas contract
10/30/2004 11:15:00 AM GMT

China's oil giant Sinopec Group has signed a $70 billion worth oil and natural gas deal with Iran; China's biggest energy deal with the No. 2 OPEC producer.

Under a memorandum of understanding signed on Thursday, Iran agreed to sell Sinopec Group 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas over 30 years.

Iran also agreed on selling 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to China for 25 years at market prices after commissioning of the field.

In his two-day visit to Beijing, Iran's oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said that Iran is China's biggest oil supplier and wants to be its long-term business partner.

http://www.aljazeera...service_id=5416

China already has troops guarding Sudan's oil. I haven't seen anywhere that China plans to place troops in Iran, but if it does it would seem to deter an American attack on Iran.

#19 PeakOil

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:35 AM

Whoa!! Iran: A Bridge too Far? Well written piece on Russian anti-ship missile technology affecting the balance of the power in the Persian Gulf quagmire. IMVHO this technology could indeed be a show stopper. Definitely worth a read!

The 1987 surprise attack on the Stark exemplifies the dangers posed by anti-ship cruise missiles. And the dangers are much more serious in the case of the Sunburn, whose specs leave the sub-sonic Exocet in the dust. Not only is the Sunburn much larger and faster, it has far greater range and a superior guidance system. Those who have witnessed its performance trials invariably come away stunned. According to one report, when the Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani visited Moscow in October 2001 he requested a test firing of the Sunburn, which the Russians were only too happy to arrange. So impressed was Ali Shamkhani that he placed an order for an undisclosed number of the missiles.

The Sunburn can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or: a 750-pound conventional warhead, within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes “violent end maneuvers” to elude enemy defenses. The missile was specifically designed to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system. Should a US Navy Phalanx point defense somehow manage to detect an incoming Sunburn missile, the system has only seconds to calculate a fire solution –– not enough time to take out the intruding missile. The US Phalanx defense employs a six-barreled gun that fires 3,000 depleted-uranium rounds a minute, but the gun must have precise coordinates to destroy an intruder “just in time.”

The Sunburn’s combined supersonic speed and payload size produce tremendous kinetic energy on impact, with devastating consequences for ship and crew. A single one of these missiles can sink a large warship, yet costs considerably less than a fighter jet. Although the Navy has been phasing out the older Phalanx defense system, its replacement, known as the Rolling Action Missile (RAM) has never been tested against the weapon it seems destined to one day face in combat.



The Israelis may not like a nuclear capable Iran, however 50 dollah crude will seem a fond fairy tale when the Gulf turns into a lake of fire. :o :ph34r:

#20

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:36 AM

here's my take on both videotapes released this week.  both produced by bush and co as a strategic ploy.  they know damn well they are trailing and are despearate to retain power.  by having terrorists stating disdain for bush, there is a subliminal message to vote bush.  as bush says, you are either with us or against us.  there is a psychological factor that could make people do the opposite of what terrorists say.
personally, don't think it works and kerry wins big.

I generally agree, but was surprised to read the text of Bin Laden's rant. It seems too soft and sensible (within the context of a terrorist, of course) and designed to appeal more to Democratic sensibilities than to fear. Granted, we are still discussing a topic about which there is no end to the conspiratorial angles and the patriotic and symbolic angles, but from a purely analytical sense, it's difficult for me to see Rove's hand in the content of the message. The timing on the other hand was directly influenced by the White House. They obviously have some influence with Al Jazerra.

The GOP contention that "they hate us all and want all of us dead" is directly contradicted in these words.

Very subtly, and thoughtfully - without damaging Kerry's chances of victory, Bin Laden has brought into focus the concept that Kerry put forward earlier (drawing the wrath of Cheney) - that we need a more thoughtful appproach to dealing with the root causes of terrorism.

It does raise more questions than it answers for me.

As for Bin Laden's reference to Sweden as a place least likely to be attacked, you can assume that many American's will start looking to move there.

A Bin Laden video that actually LOWERS the fear level in the US. Who'd have thought?

#21 wndysrf

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:40 AM

Good to See 'Ya Back Yobob!!!!

I knew you couldn't resist.............

As usual, its "Do or Die" for just about everything:

Stocks
Dollar
Gold
Bonds
CRB

And everything else traded in the Animal Planet Speculative Sphere.............

How coincident that this "setup" happens to occur right at the election.

9000 HedgeFunds went home this weekend with Raw Nerves............

Never a dull moment.....
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#22

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:42 AM

Huh????

At a Bush-Cheney Campaign Rally in Harrisburg, PA, Teresa Heinz Kerry speaks to supporters about political issues and her husband's campaign.
10/29/2004: HARRISBURG, PA: 45 min.



http://www.c-span.or...p?CatCodePairs=,


Link above does not work, But is a typo from the C-SPAN.org page

#23

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:44 AM

Whoa!! Iran: A Bridge too Far? Well written piece on Russian anti-ship missile technology affecting the balance of the power in the Persian Gulf quagmire. IMVHO this technology could indeed be a show stopper. Definitely worth a read!

The 1987 surprise attack on the Stark exemplifies the dangers posed by anti-ship cruise missiles. And the dangers are much more serious in the case of the Sunburn, whose specs leave the sub-sonic Exocet in the dust. Not only is the Sunburn much larger and faster, it has far greater range and a superior guidance system. Those who have witnessed its performance trials invariably come away stunned. According to one report, when the Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani visited Moscow in October 2001 he requested a test firing of the Sunburn, which the Russians were only too happy to arrange. So impressed was Ali Shamkhani that he placed an order for an undisclosed number of the missiles.

The Sunburn can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or: a 750-pound conventional warhead, within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes “violent end maneuvers” to elude enemy defenses. The missile was specifically designed to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system. Should a US Navy Phalanx point defense somehow manage to detect an incoming Sunburn missile, the system has only seconds to calculate a fire solution –– not enough time to take out the intruding missile. The US Phalanx defense employs a six-barreled gun that fires 3,000 depleted-uranium rounds a minute, but the gun must have precise coordinates to destroy an intruder “just in time.”

The Sunburn’s combined supersonic speed and payload size produce tremendous kinetic energy on impact, with devastating consequences for ship and crew. A single one of these missiles can sink a large warship, yet costs considerably less than a fighter jet. Although the Navy has been phasing out the older Phalanx defense system, its replacement, known as the Rolling Action Missile (RAM) has never been tested against the weapon it seems destined to one day face in combat.


The Israelis may not like a nuclear capable Iran, however 50 dollah crude will seem a fond fairy tale when the Gulf turns into a lake of fire. :o :ph34r:

A nuclear warhead on a Sunburn Misslie would be redundant to the hundredth power. With no warhead at all, the impact of one of these things on a ship would be devestating.

This changes the game entirely.

#24

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 10:53 AM

Huh????

At a Bush-Cheney Campaign Rally in Harrisburg, PA, Teresa Heinz Kerry speaks to supporters about political issues and her husband's campaign.
10/29/2004: HARRISBURG, PA: 45 min.

http://www.c-span.or...p?CatCodePairs=,

Dead link, Sleddy

#25 chiefywiefy

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 11:03 AM

Consider the strategic significance of this! Now if we attack/invade Iran, we are attacking China's oil supply!!!

China can say to the US:

"We are going to buy up all of the world's resources with your Petrodollars, and if you attack any of our suppliers, we will sell your paper and collapse your housing bubble and turn your economy and your dollar into dust. Cash is King, and we have the cash. We will spend it all now to buy everything we need, and then threaten to pull the floor out from underneath you. We own your ass!"

What if the Chinese don't want to use financial leverage against the US. Perhaps they want a regime change. If they are aware that their economy is on borrowed time, perhaps they take the first step in the coming debacle. Why not start selling as much US paper as you could when the Asian markets open Sunday night. Sell it and keep on selling it. It would collapse the US equity markets the day before the election and put a knife into the back of GW. If there is massive fed intervention the Chinese get a great price to get rid of their paper then they can de-peg and purchase commodities at a discount.

#26 Abby Justa Colon

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 11:06 AM

You are forgetting a key point. The Republicans control the voting machines in every decisive state. Do you think it was happenstance that Diebold built machines without a paper trail, while other companies in non-key states built machines with a receipt ?

The only way that the top 20% of the population can outvote the bottom 80% is if the votes of the 80% are not counted. get it?

I heard a late night radio broadcast on this very subject. They claimed the machines were built with two-way modems and can be monitored and votes changed at any time. I had hoped that this was not true, but now I suspect it is. It would be a disgrace to learn that your vote was deleted or changed after it was cast. We have electronic machines here in my part of Ohio.

Kerry clearly has a lead in this part of Ohio.

Either way.....this election does not appear it will be over by Tuesday eve.

#27

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 11:07 AM

Consider the strategic significance of this!  Now if we attack/invade Iran, we are attacking China's oil supply!!! 

China can say to the US:

"We are going to buy up all of the world's resources with your Petrodollars, and if you attack any of our suppliers, we will sell your paper and collapse your housing bubble and turn your economy and your dollar into dust.  Cash is King, and we have the cash.  We will spend it all now to buy everything we need, and then threaten to pull the floor out from underneath you.  We own your ass!"

What if the Chinese don't want to use financial leverage against the US. Perhaps they want a regime change. If they are aware that their economy is on borrowed time, perhaps they take the first step in the coming debacle. Why not start selling as much US paper as you could when the Asian markets open Sunday night. Sell it and keep on selling it. It would collapse the US equity markets the day before the election and put a knife into the back of GW. If there is massive fed intervention the Chinese get a great price to get rid of their paper then they can de-peg and purchase commodities at a discount.

Either way, whether now or later, our fate is not our own. George Bush Senior played a direct role in helping to put the chinese into this position...making millions in the process.

It seems to me that as long as the Chinese can remain in a positioning of threatening to dump Treasuries, they hold the hammer. Playing that card at any time reduces their future power - as the threat is the power.

#28

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 11:12 AM





You are forgetting a key point. The Republicans control the voting machines in every decisive state. Do you think it was happenstance that Diebold built machines without a paper trail, while other companies in non-key states built machines with a receipt ?

The only way that the top 20% of the population can outvote the bottom 80% is if the votes of the 80% are not counted. get it?

I heard a late night radio broadcast on this very subject. They claimed the machines were built with two-way modems and can be monitored and votes changed at any time. I had hoped that this was not true, but now I suspect it is. It would be a disgrace to learn that your vote was deleted or changed after it was cast. We have electronic machines here in my part of Ohio.

Kerry clearly has a lead in this part of Ohio.

Either way.....this election does not appear it will be over by Tuesday eve.

When this issue came up four years ago, I said the only way that electronic voting should be used is by using Dumb Terminals...not connected to the WWW...simply recepticals to accumulate votes. At the end of voting, the results could be dumped to a Zip - printed out or whatever to preserve a record of what occurred on each dumb terminal, and only then would the results be fed to a central collection point.

The lowest tech solution would have been the most reliable...which is obviously why it was not chosen

#29

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 11:48 AM

Just back from a drive through a fairly "effluent" neighborhood here in south Florida.

The number of political signs in yards was surprisingly high. More Bush signs than Kerry signs, but plenty of each.

Divided neighborhoods, divided families.

Way to go George.

#30 Drano

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Posted 30 October 2004 - 11:55 AM

A wealthy suburb here (Minnesota) has far more Kerry signs than Bush signs.The interesting thing is that a friend who lives there says no one in the neighborhood has ever posted signs before.
Of course I'm caustic!





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