Internuts Engulfed by Sellers
248 replies to this topic
Posted 23 October 2004 - 02:58 AM
That's too funny!!!
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
Posted 23 October 2004 - 08:44 AM
Panda - know how you feel, but take it easy. iknowindeces ( mathematical model, but not elliot) says gap up open on the euro at 3 am, but big correction by end of the week. psafx went up 2 cents yesterday - that was all. it is overloaded in miners and the miners will go down with the ship. go short and go into oil, but watch the currency trades. don't know for sure, but with a gap down opening, it is possible Monday could be the bottom. I am fighting my emotions here myself. but I can tell you from experience that trading decisions made from fear always lose money.
Posted 23 October 2004 - 09:09 AM
Here's a similar move on AEE:
But now read the truth about them and many other utility companies that sold less electricity due to cooler temps in the northeast this summer...
Ameren Q3 earnings drop 15%
Utility narrows full-year outlook on weather, acquisition
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Reduced demand prompted by abnormally mild summer weather led to a 15 percent decline in third-quarter earnings at Ameren Corp.
Here's another example of a chart that was set to collapse on a bad earnings report that went up instead of down when the bad news hit:
Dominion reverses loss, lowers outlook
By Lisa Sanders, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:07 PM ET Oct 21, 2004
DALLAS (CBS.MW) -- Dominion Resources posted a third-quarter profit vs. a loss a year earlier but lowered its 2004 earnings outlook as it cited weather-related impacts.
There are a bunch of examples just like these...Charts that were perfectly set up for the short side, that had warnings or missed earnings, yet shot up on Friday. You know what that's all about WNDY...same ol criminality. The rats are going to jump ship on these things ASAP. Epic setups.
Read about the utilities here and check out some of these charts. Plenty of misses and warnings in this group with a few air pockets below.
Posted 23 October 2004 - 09:15 AM
Thanks Butterfield - You are probably right, I already feel calmer this morning. Looking at that USD chart made me a bit ill after a long day yesterday. It's always bad to chase these things - I will wait for a bounce, it will probably go back up to kiss 87 from below.
It's not a good feeling to know that the purchasing power of your money is being continually stolen from you by Easy Al and our lovely government.
I have BEGBX and PSAFX in the 401k in equal amounts - got out of BEARX earlier this year, Noland is a great writer but Prudent Bear's fund management is not that great - most of the 401k is in cash. It is time to increase the short position, though. Jay Chen thinks the Chinese slowdown will be a hard landing, and he would know better than most:
"October 18th, 2004
Hello Snowshoe, <<... am I right that you are bluntly reassessing your position on this? Seems to me that a little while ago you were merely calling for a bit of a cooling off in the rate of Chinese growth. Now your tone seems to have changed>>
The short answer: I did change my position.
The long answer:
(a) I still believe the collapse is but a pebble on the road to prosperity, except the pebble may be a lot bigger than I thought it would be;
( I do not believe China's growth rate will go negative, as in Depression of GDP, but China growth rate collapsing to +6% would be very noticeable already, especially to the financial market, which is but an thermometer up the behind of the real economy; and
© I think it prudent to trim back a bit, perhaps even to add to the short positions, and this thought applies to all markets.
I got phone calls this afternoon from two unrelated and fair proportioned Chinese mainland tycoons (revenue 1-2 billion RMB per annum), both self made, and both discussing the slow down in their respective sectors, and both wanted an assessment of the financial market and the US economy (I know nothing about nothing, said as much, but took a guess anyway :0)
One call is curious. Two calls gave me the willies.
After I put down the phone the second time, I put in some sell orders on the European and South African exchanges, and then went swimming.
There is not much point taking a pointless chance, as I need the capacity to carry out my already committed wagers (November 1st, November 20-30th, April 1-30th).
I will probably short some stuff on the US exchange this PM. A night of short blades, as it will be ;0)
Posted 23 October 2004 - 09:48 AM
Panda - Jim Rogers says the same thing - and he is 100% focussed on China. Says bust in 2005, then buy in for the long term rise. I think your guy nailed it. China will eventually have enough consumers of its own, but today it is still dependent on US consumer.
PS - You might want to consider selling psafx this week if you are in the black on it.
Posted 23 October 2004 - 09:52 AM
You have impeccable taste in machines and women
Posted 23 October 2004 - 10:21 AM
Nat Gas spiked Friday. The stocks in the sector are not making new highs. Many are below previous highs on low volume. It looks just like the action in the miners many months ago when POG hit 390 the 2nd time and the stocks didn't follow suit with the same conviction. They got trashed in the coming weeks. I'm waiting to re-enter TMR, PQUE and a few others. As for Utilities, i thought they tend to run inversely with interest rates. Perhaps they are simply signaling a bond rally/equity sell off. A last IT blowoff in oil, a quick tanking of the equity market, then a 50% rally from the last downleg based on the oil slamming of speculators. Then kiss the market goodbye once the rally peters out. BWDIK.
Posted 23 October 2004 - 10:52 AM
First New England, Now Boston?
From today's Boston Herald:
Stocks feel Red Sox' pain
By Brett Arends
Saturday, October 23, 2004
The signs aren't great. Not for the game - for the stock market.
The Red Sox don't make the World Series often. But when they do, it has usually been followed by a slowdown or worse on Wall Street.
In the years when the Sox have won the pennant, the Dow Jones' average gain has been 17.5 percent, according to data compiled by the Stock Trader's Almanac.
But in the year that followed, it was just 9.4 percent - and that is distorted by aytypical booms way back in 1904 and 1905.
On seven of the 10 occasions when the Sox have made the Series, Wall Street has fared worse following the Sox appearance than in the year of the series itself.
The average Dow performance in the year following a loss is just 4.9 percent Meanwhile, if someone tells you that a World Series ticket is worth its weight in gold, tell them they're talking nonsense.
Tickets to today's game are worth more than that. A lot more.
An analysis by the Herald shows that, when measured by weight, Fenway tickets are among the most valuable commodities on Earth.
The most expensive, for infield box seats, are worth an eye-watering $64,000 an ounce.
That makes platinum look pretty cheap at $850 - let alone gold, a mere $420.
Even tickets to the bleachers are worth about as much as a good semi-precious stone. According to prices on the Web last night, bleacher seats are fetching about $14,000 an ounce.
That's about the same as a decent amethyst, opal or garnet, according to salesmen at downtown jewellers' E.B. Horn.
Of course this is only part of the story.
Really good rubies or emeralds cost $500,000 an ounce. The rarest stones of all, so-called ``D-flawless'' diamond: about $2.6 million per ounce.
Seeing the Yanks dumped out of the playoffs? Priceless.
Posted 23 October 2004 - 11:28 AM
Central Bank stops supporting dollar
RBC, 22.10.2004, Moscow 12:31:44.The weighted average dollar exchange rate was 29 RUR/USD in the first 90 minutes of trade at a special session today. Thus, the official dollar rate for October 23-25 will decrease by RUR0.12. This is the most considerable one-day drop of the dollar against the ruble since late April. The low on the deals was even 28.95 RUR/USD at the UTS.
Posted 23 October 2004 - 11:36 AM
Posted 23 October 2004 - 12:00 PM
anyone see bull & bears on fox this morning. hilarious. same ol crap, bullish! this beast is going down and hard. that ahole they call chartman is the biggest joke of a technician and great fade. they popped a chart of the dow up and he has this u shape/w bottom on it. i almost cried from laughing so hard. dow is dead!!
The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board