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#46 DrStool

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 09:22 PM

Dozer- I do not doubt what you saw at all. I am wondering if the page may have been an old page that you had looked at before and was stored in your browser cache. I use Google news a lot, and have never seen anything that appeared to be an attempt to manipulate the news. What you experienced should have been an anomaly, but I will have my antenna up from now on.

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#47 dozer

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 09:23 PM

hi Hadjin !! long time.

Just one D9, a -19A....1961 I think. The one in bkgnd is a 1948 D8-2U, still working daily, believe it or not. Our friend's. The one on right edge, where you just see the winch on back, is our D8, a -15A, about 1959.

howdy Plunger ! I like your analysis. Sure smells like blowoff. You can almost taste that gap-down open on Monday...

But if they've just started rotating into Gurgle....monday seems too soon... Guess it depends on what else goes wrong this weekend :D

Doc, when you figure out what the catalyst is, I hope you'll tell us...a day in advance of course! :D

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 09:47 PM

hi Hadjin !! long time.

Just one D9, a -19A....1961 I think. The one in bkgnd is a 1948 D8-2U, still working daily, believe it or not. Our friend's. The one on right edge, where you just see the winch on back, is our D8, a -15A, about 1959.

howdy Plunger ! I like your analysis. Sure smells like blowoff. You can almost taste that gap-down open on Monday...

But if they've just started rotating into Gurgle....monday seems too soon... Guess it depends on what else goes wrong this weekend :D

Doc, when you figure out what the catalyst is, I hope you'll tell us...a day in advance of course! :D

Welcome home, Dozer!

If the move in GOOG had just started, I'd agree that Monday seems too soon. I just have a hunch that this is the culmination of an epic scam that began the day they began trading. It rhymed with the ridiculous moves just prior to the blow up of the tech bubble, and now these traders have that experience freshly in mind.

The hopes of the entire market were resting on the successful IPO of GOOG, and they made it stick for a while. The script called for GOOG worship at the time of their first earnings report no matter what, in an attempt to whip the NAZ and the SOX into a feeding frenzy on the back of GOOG. It didn't work. Too many earnings warnings.

The failure of the SOX to launch is a major problem. That GOOG action in the AH last night looked totally contrived, with massive price moves on minimal orders setting up the appearance of a broad acceptance of a $200 price target. They will try to take it there by noon on Monday, but I don't think they've got the bullets. When the SPOOS closed on the low of the day after a perfect set up for a ramp job failed, a lot of big operators had a religious experience. Don't look for the fear indicators to move in advance of a crash. They've been unplugged by the Matrix.

The dollar tanking means oil priced in PetroDollars needs to rise just to break-even. Oil will be up on Monday, the dollar will be down, and the futures will be red. Major dislocations and epic chart failures feeding on themselves. With all of the volume that came into GOOG in the past two days, a 5% down move could start a chain reaction to GTFO.

With all of the emphasis that the Matrix has placed on GOOG, it would only be approriate that they be the starter pistol for the rush to the exits.

That's my WAG...

#49 roidrage

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 09:51 PM

I stopped using GOOG and switched to TEOMA. It is a decent search engine, and more importantly, was developed in New Jersey,

New Jerseyans know where all the bodies are buried, so a search engine is a piece of cake.

#50 depends

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 10:31 PM

bambi's blog

death ride - oh no. :o

#51 wndysrf

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 10:33 PM

You are right, Plunger

The SOX reversal and the HHH engulfing was a major red flag for the Nasdaq.

I was fully expecting a March Madness type of squeeze event on the SOX. The fact that there was no follow through was scary.

And on the S & P, the financials look like death. Wells Fargo and some of the other "impervious" stocks sold off hard.

Like Noland says, profiteering from the Credit Bubble Racket is getting too hard. Way too many players competing now.

Now all we need to see is the Utilities and the Trannies break next week, and that will finally confirm the End of the Hysteria.

On the other hand, if the SOX makes a new high and the HHH goes higher than today's open, then we have a whole other animal to deal with.............
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#52 dozer

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 10:50 PM

howdy wndy ! I've missed reading your stuff this past year.

Thanks to you and Plunger for laying out expected scenario for next week.

I admit to being pretty startled today when, after the expected bounce near end of day, it turned around in the last few minutes and started heading down sharply, with what looked like considerable volume behind it.

I wonder....even if Magoo pumps big-time on Monday....with a big chunk of the market being foreign-investment....what if they decide this weekend to start selling Monday? Even Magoo won't be able to hold it up?

I haven't had a chance to even check into the Anals yet, so I don't know what Doc's charts project for the next week-to-month. Will be interesting to get caught up this weekend... :D

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 11:31 PM

CRASH ALERT!
JOHN RYDING CUSTOMERS MAN! CUSTOMERS MAN!

Similar dynamics were at the heart of the 1929 crash & Great Depression

If one scripted how the final stage of a historic Bubble in marketable debt instruments might appear, I think it would much resemble the way things are these days. I will conclude with the most important point – one not addressed by Mr. McCulley, or anyone else for that matter. A truly momentous failure of analysis and policymaking revolves around the issue of systemic liquidity created in the process of leveraged speculation of debt instruments (having gone to “blow-off” extremes). Highly leveraged speculative finance has become the key source of liquidity for both the financial system and economy. Similar dynamics were at the heart of the 1929 financial crash and subsequent Great Depression. This will be a pressing – if unappreciated – issue in the unsettling days, weeks and months ahead.
http://www.prudentbe...blebulletin.asp
FOR THE WHOLE MEGILLAH

JOHN RYDING CUSTOMERS MAN! CUSTOMERS MAN!
JOHN RYDING CUSTOMERS MAN! CUSTOMERS MAN!
JOHN RYDING CUSTOMERS MAN! CUSTOMERS MAN!

#54 beardrech

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 11:43 PM

Windy,

I like to kid myself that the bear takes the bears money first,as a bear, I think that we are smarter than the sheeple and at least on par with the bulls.

The bears have been thru the ringer for the last 3 years or so and have fought the good fight,those that have survived with some capital intact will do very well when the bear turns his attention to the bulls and the sheeple...that should be an absolute bloodbath... ;)

Bris

Why do I tell my friends that Bears are far far superior in market analysis and ethics than the Schwarmerei in brokerage houses?

Because, unlike the chazairem (pigs), they dont serve as shills and hustle innocent victims into the whirling propellor blades of the "Investment " machine--

But rather what makes them righter than the "winners", even when they lose, is that they put their money--honestly--where their mouth is: a symptom that some thought has been put into the bet and not a mindless shuffling towards either a financial Armeeggedon or a felonious success

Evidence probative,your honor, is gathered before ignorantly leaping ,and while the market may beat them some of the time, sometimes most of the time, (Yes we are also impulsive too) there is more active intelligence in their evaluations than a carload of cheat street onion heads--

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: Gentlemen tis an honor to be among you

#55 longOnUranus

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 11:56 PM

'now even on the year; hats off to you guys who have winnings. Personally, i had to dig back from a somewhat deep hole. Like Wndy, I'm whipped...thank God for my day job.

Now 100% cash/metals/land and a few CD's and bonds until the erection (maybe the inauguration, depending). Even the wiff of a Hypertiger scenario unfolding scares me to no end.

This is the start of end game for the Matrix. If they can reflate the bubble one more time, it'll be easy money for bears. If not...make sure you know where your money is.

#56 Jimi

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Posted 23 October 2004 - 12:18 AM

I can't keep up with that sector rotation stuff.

But the way I see it a lot of the money flow is always in one direction -- from the public buying stocks that they end up stuck with, to the insiders selling stocks they got almost for free with options.

Large corporations have become the biggest thieves in the world..

Look at almost any large public corporate balance sheet and you'll most likely find a number that keeps getting bigger and bigger...Treasury Stock..some of the companies spend almost all of their net income buying back stock on the open market so they can give it away to the officers, while the net equity of the company barely grows from quarter to quarter..

Here's a CLASSIC example of what I'm talking about..look at IBM's Balance Sheet and notice how the Treasury Stock has increased by $5 Billion while Net Shareholder Equity has shown basicly no growth over the last year..

It is criminal stealing from the public and it should be stopped..Get Spitzer on this one.. :lol:

This is at the heart of the crisis in contemporary capitalism.
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#57 PandaBear

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Posted 23 October 2004 - 12:43 AM

Agreed Dozer
The election is lost in any case. Unless they can manufacture a miracle rally next week I cant see the Repubs having a hope.

The dollars continued implosion is amazing. No intervention as they seem to be totally complacent with what could certainly cause a crash. Foreigners who have a substantial piece of the mountain of lies must be very very unhappy with the double whammy they experienced this week. I suspect a huge exodus out of Eurodollars if the carnage continues. Ted Spread under close watch as are the Eurodollars.
I just had a gander at Eurodollar puts and I must say I was blown away by the lack of premium being charged out 6 months and more. The ED trades in a very narrow range historically. However, should a dislocation in the US markets make an appearance I suspect history will repeat and the ED will become very volatile.

The truck will be backed up on Monday.


Yeah, look at that dollar chart. Blecch. I put in a limit order on CHF/USD before I went to work today and missed filling by .003 - so I got to endure another day of dollar devaluation. Screw this, I'm gonna move a big chunk of cash out of USD ATM Monday AM.

Looking back at the 1970s bear market, longs would get pummeled for 50% losses in their equities, then take another hit on top of those losses as the dollar devalued. Similar scenario seems to be in the offing. Foreign currencies, bullion and shorting seem to be the only protection. PSAFX, Profunds inverse funds, gold and energy stocks in the 401k.

Anybody got alternatives, please enlighten me. ;)

#58 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 23 October 2004 - 12:59 AM

you know that we are nearer the end than the beginning when you read stories like this one......


Food and Wine
The Most Expensive U.S. Restaurants
Forbes.com
Christina Valhouli

When the French-born chef Alain Ducasse opened his eponymous restaurant atop the Essex House in New York four years ago, with dinner starting at $145 per person without wine, it was the price equivalent of Chuck Yeager breaking the sound barrier.

Ducasse's restaurant instantly became the most expensive in town, and even the inhabitants of a city in which excess is as natural as jaywalking were shocked at the prices and outraged by his audacity. People whined, moaned and complained about the high prices, but, perhaps inevitably, gourmets and expense accounters alike were drawn to the place, if for no other reason than to determine if any food was worth those prices.

Despite a rocky start, on the strength of its food, service and, bluntly, snob appeal, today it is one of the city's premier power dining spots. The restaurant did away with some of the more irritating flourishes that had caused sniggers among the congnoscenti when it first opened, such as its ostentatious choice of 20 fountain pens with which to sign the bill, the hand-snipped tea leaves and the obscure cutlery. What else changed? Oh yes, the price for a meal is now $150, before wine or a tip. (The tasting menu starts at $225.) Imagine how much it would be if you tacked on a $2,500 bottle of 1982 Chateau Margaux.

http://biz.yahoo.com...staurant_1.html

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Posted 23 October 2004 - 02:08 AM

another Internut cult stock, Overshot.com

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#60 martialcomp

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Posted 23 October 2004 - 02:39 AM

Matt Savinar, author of the book 'The Oil Age Is Over' is a guest on Puplava's News show tonight.

http://www.netcastda.../fsnewshour.htm

The entire country should listen to this. He discusses how our economic system relies on ever increasing growth, debt and consumption and how this relates to the need for ever increasing fossil fuel energy.





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