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B4 The Belll Frieday October 22


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#76 Hiding Bear

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:02 PM

10/22/2004

The Feds actions today indicate they have still not come to the POR on the money supply slide.

The Fed took away about $6B or so in repos, which is a little surprising – and bodes poorly for the market over the next day or so. AG is still not worried much about oil, the economy, or GSEs – as we hear every day from Fed members. This seems to be part of the positive “words” policy espoused recently by the Fed. However wishing only works in the land of Peter Pan and Captain Hook.

My feeling is that the Fed is still going back to the higher end of recent range – from the bottom reached recently - that would target around a 6% growth rate in the monetary base. This will probably continue until the end of the month. Thereafter, in early November, the Fed may tighten things up a little to make way for the expected ¼ point rate increase that looks very likely now.

Note: See Doc’s Feed Report for charts and a comprehensive explanation of where the Fed is now.

As you may see from the attachments, the Fed had about a 4% monetary base growth rate in the first five months of 2005, accelerated to about 6% at the same time it started moving up interest rates. I expect an 8% growth rate to be implemented in the next 2 to 6 weeks. The problem is that this time the Fed will not be fighting head winds but a hurricane, and it may get blown aside before it realizes how powerful the storm is.

Falling money supply and liquidity will exert a significant negative effect on the market the next few weeks.

Monetary Base
http://research.stlo.../usfd/page3.pdf

M2 Money Supply
http://research.stlo.../usfd/page6.pdf

#77 zensmoke

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:04 PM

In case you missed it

UPDATE 1-US Treasury's Snow says supports strong dollar
Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:52 PM ET
(Adds background, Snow quote)
TAMPA, Fla, Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday repeated U.S. support for a strong dollar but declined to comment on a recent drop in the dollar's value against those of other major currencies.

"We support a strong dollar," he said.

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=6558219

With what? A jock strap?

And of course for those low kicks....

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#78 Butterfield 8

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:06 PM

crude 55.25

#79

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:07 PM

oil and gold at HOD

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:08 PM

nat gas up 5%

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:10 PM

http://139.142.147.2...refreshrate=180

how's this for a set up?

#82 zensmoke

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:13 PM

DJ In Bush Ad, Wolves Suggest Terrorists' Threat Under Kerry
WASHINGTON (AP)--President Bush's campaign, using powerful imagery of prowling wolves, suggests in a new TV ad that the country under John Kerry would be vulnerable to terrorists because "weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm."

Countering, Kerry's campaign accused the president of employing "the politics of fear" out of desperation.

Reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's Soviet "Bear" ad that was credited with helping frame the 1984 race, the commercial shows a dense forest from above. Scurrying is heard as the camera plunges deeper into the woods and pans sunlight-speckled trees. Shadows move through the brush before animals are seen amid the forest.

Then, the ad reveals the type of animal: A pack of wolves rest on a hill. As the commercial closes, the predators stir, moving toward the camera.

"In an increasingly dangerous world, even after the first terrorist attack on America, John Kerry and the liberals in Congress voted to slash America's intelligence budget by $6 billion," an ominous voice says in the ad. "Cuts so deep they would have weakened America's defenses. And weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm."

It implies that terrorists would take advantage of a Kerry presidency and the country could face another attack, which Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have implied on the campaign trail. The vice president said last month the country was likely to be "hit again" if voters made the "wrong choice" in November.
Dow Jones Newswires

#83 Hiding Bear

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:13 PM

nat gas up 5%

NG up 25% this week -

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#84 Ned38

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:15 PM

Uhhhhhhhh weren't Bush and Cheney in office that time the terrorists DID strike?

#85 Jimi

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:18 PM

Uhhhhhhhh weren't Bush and Cheney in office that time the terrorists DID strike?

Off to the Ashcroft Re-Education Camp with you, Ned.
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#86 Bearbones

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:21 PM

Uhhhhhhhh weren't Bush and Cheney in office that time the terrorists DID strike?

Stop confusing me with the facts, please.

#87 Butterfield 8

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:27 PM

now who do you think Muslim fundamentalists hate more ....

#88 RockLedge

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:28 PM

Saw a report that Russia has enough oil to swamp the market. problem is delivery, shipping. anybody up on status of Lukoil and the whole mess over there?

I'll get Spitzer right on it.. ;)

I would watch Iran. IMO, that's the powder keg.

#89 Hiding Bear

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:37 PM

Study: "most middle-income families lost ground between 2000 and 2003"

How are those Bush policies helping the middle class? According to a study from the Ecnoomic Policy Institute:

# "Pre-tax incomes fell for middle-income families of every type between 2000 and 2003. Driven by a recession-induced fall-off in wage income, pre-tax incomes fell by $2,119, or 3.1%, for married-couple families with children; single mothers lost $686 in pre-tax income, or 3.0%; elderly couples lost $353, or 1.0%; and young singles lost $818, or 3.4%."
# "After taking into account changes in both pre-tax income and taxes, the finding remains that most middle-income families lost ground between 2000 and 2003. Incomes declined slightly over this period (by 0.2%) for married couples with children and by 1.4% for elderly couples and young singles. Single-mother families saw after-tax income gains of 1.9% because of the greater refundability of child tax credits."
# "Family spending on higher insurance co-pays, deductibles, and premiums has escalated in recent years. Middle-income families saw their incomes erode between 2000 and 2003, after changes in both taxes and health spending are taken into account. For married-couple families with children, health spending rose three times faster than income (not inflation-adjusted) between 2000 and 2003, absorbing half the growth of their income. The post-tax, post-health-spending income of married-couple families with children, for instance, fell $699, or 1.3%, between 2000 and 2003, while that of single-mother families fell $433, or 2.0%."LINK

Helicopter drop money, that is tax cuts and rebates from the government - produced by a swing from a $236 budget surplus to a $415 deficit in four years, goes long way in explaining how consumers have managed to cope with a deteriorating standard of living.

Without the Trillion US dollar purchases by foreign cantral banks over the last few years, the helicopter money drop policy would have resulted in much higher interest rates - which would have stoped the credit bubble from expanding.

At this point, the budget deficit can't be cut without causing real pain. But as mentioned in my lead post, foreigners won't cooperate by buying an unlimited supply of depreciating dollars.

I envision even further tax cuts and even greater budget deficits next year - and that still won't stop the economy from enetering a recession.

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:39 PM

I would watch Iran. IMO, that's the powder keg.


Are all of our luminaries accounted for at muster in DC this morning???? B)

Edited by Hunter65, 22 October 2004 - 12:41 PM.






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