B4 The Belll Frieday October 22
558 replies to this topic
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:02 PM
The Feds actions today indicate they have still not come to the POR on the money supply slide.
The Fed took away about $6B or so in repos, which is a little surprising – and bodes poorly for the market over the next day or so. AG is still not worried much about oil, the economy, or GSEs – as we hear every day from Fed members. This seems to be part of the positive “words” policy espoused recently by the Fed. However wishing only works in the land of Peter Pan and Captain Hook.
My feeling is that the Fed is still going back to the higher end of recent range – from the bottom reached recently - that would target around a 6% growth rate in the monetary base. This will probably continue until the end of the month. Thereafter, in early November, the Fed may tighten things up a little to make way for the expected ¼ point rate increase that looks very likely now.
Note: See Doc’s Feed Report for charts and a comprehensive explanation of where the Fed is now.
As you may see from the attachments, the Fed had about a 4% monetary base growth rate in the first five months of 2005, accelerated to about 6% at the same time it started moving up interest rates. I expect an 8% growth rate to be implemented in the next 2 to 6 weeks. The problem is that this time the Fed will not be fighting head winds but a hurricane, and it may get blown aside before it realizes how powerful the storm is.
Falling money supply and liquidity will exert a significant negative effect on the market the next few weeks.
M2 Money Supply
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:04 PM
And of course for those low kicks....With what? A jock strap?
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:13 PM
DJ In Bush Ad, Wolves Suggest Terrorists' Threat Under Kerry
WASHINGTON (AP)--President Bush's campaign, using powerful imagery of prowling wolves, suggests in a new TV ad that the country under John Kerry would be vulnerable to terrorists because "weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm."
Countering, Kerry's campaign accused the president of employing "the politics of fear" out of desperation.
Reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's Soviet "Bear" ad that was credited with helping frame the 1984 race, the commercial shows a dense forest from above. Scurrying is heard as the camera plunges deeper into the woods and pans sunlight-speckled trees. Shadows move through the brush before animals are seen amid the forest.
Then, the ad reveals the type of animal: A pack of wolves rest on a hill. As the commercial closes, the predators stir, moving toward the camera.
"In an increasingly dangerous world, even after the first terrorist attack on America, John Kerry and the liberals in Congress voted to slash America's intelligence budget by $6 billion," an ominous voice says in the ad. "Cuts so deep they would have weakened America's defenses. And weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm."
It implies that terrorists would take advantage of a Kerry presidency and the country could face another attack, which Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have implied on the campaign trail. The vice president said last month the country was likely to be "hit again" if voters made the "wrong choice" in November.
Dow Jones Newswires
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:15 PM
Uhhhhhhhh weren't Bush and Cheney in office that time the terrorists DID strike?
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:18 PM
Off to the Ashcroft Re-Education Camp with you, Ned.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
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Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:21 PM
Stop confusing me with the facts, please.
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:27 PM
now who do you think Muslim fundamentalists hate more ....
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:28 PM
I'll get Spitzer right on it..
I would watch Iran. IMO, that's the powder keg.
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:37 PM
Helicopter drop money, that is tax cuts and rebates from the government - produced by a swing from a $236 budget surplus to a $415 deficit in four years, goes long way in explaining how consumers have managed to cope with a deteriorating standard of living.
Without the Trillion US dollar purchases by foreign cantral banks over the last few years, the helicopter money drop policy would have resulted in much higher interest rates - which would have stoped the credit bubble from expanding.
At this point, the budget deficit can't be cut without causing real pain. But as mentioned in my lead post, foreigners won't cooperate by buying an unlimited supply of depreciating dollars.
I envision even further tax cuts and even greater budget deficits next year - and that still won't stop the economy from enetering a recession.
Posted 22 October 2004 - 12:39 PM
Are all of our luminaries accounted for at muster in DC this morning????
Edited by Hunter65, 22 October 2004 - 12:41 PM.
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