B4 The Belll Frieday October 22
558 replies to this topic
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:30 PM
Gold has only to take out 433 to start blow-off spurt or new leg up. Look at these dollar quotes tonight:
It's getting nasty. Dollar at new 8 month low.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:35 PM
what's that summons to battle B4 ? "Helmets buckled !"
something like that is in order tonight!
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:36 PM
Nikkei just went SPLAAAAAATTTTT! DOWN 235 points and ADR's getting humbled.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:39 PM
Down 245 on the Nikkei the chart is a vertical line-think elevator shaft!
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:40 PM
More from Makin:
"The basic distinguishing factor of the unusual global economy and attendant market behavior we have witnessed over the last several years is the existence of excess capacity-especially in global markets for traded goods. Starting in 1996, the U.S. stock market bubble drove down the cost of capital, especially in the tech sector, so that over-investment in turn drove down the return on new and existing capital. The spillover into broadly higher stock prices also artificially depressed the cost of capital and created excess capacity.
Excess capacity in global goods markets has been severely exacerbated by the emergence of China's production platform, which has attracted capital from domestic and foreign investors to combine with huge reserves of cheap domestic labor. This is not a criticism of China. It is simply a fact with which policymakers and the global economy and financial markets must reckon. It is important to remember that a world where demand is scarce, rather than supply, does not fit underlying assumptions of most economic models, which are driven by assumptions of the need to allocate scarce resources in a supply-constrained world"
With the American consumer beginning to weaken, the global supply overhang cannot result in a typical inflationary outcome no matter what the Fed does. The Fed has a trillion dollar slush fund that primarily is used to create additional credit. It's their credit machine and future as an institution against powerful global forces that they helped create. They are simply outgunned. They know it or they would not be mouthing off at every opportunity. They are empty barrels simply making a great deal of noise.
This is not the 1970s with its regulated financial system. Markets are firmly in control. It's what we always wanted even if it does not always go our way.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:45 PM
That's right, hidingbear.
Dr. Hawking spends all his time looking at the universe.
He is right. The universe does expand almost infinitely.
And we have the feeling inside that we can also expand infinitely, but if we try to do it by accumulation of "stuff" (inflation), we will find that it does not work.
That is when we experience the K-wave winter.
It is through the humility that we attain in that K-wave winter, that we have the opportunity to realize the True way to expand infinitely.
And it don't even cost one plug nickel.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:52 PM
Maybe we should ask Gary Shilling about this. He has a degree in physics and a PHD in economics.
His forecast? Deflation and a 3% long bond.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 08:53 PM
Inflation Deflation. I'm just watching what the markets do here. If we break under 370 Gold maybe we get Deflation over 435 we go up hard. Everything else is just trying to jam what's going on into your own mindset.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 09:02 PM
I would agree except inflation indexed bond spreads (the bond markets view of inflation) have been falling while gold has been rising. Inflation/deflation is but one mover of gold. Bonds and gold both rose in the 1929-1949 period which was deflationary.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 09:08 PM
Absolutely. My point is anyone thinking we haven't seen the bottoms in the precious metals may have missed the boat. It's still early. Gold under 250? I don't think so. Look at the multi year base in Silver. To each his own. Maybe they buy as we cross 10 bucks eh?I would agree except inflation indexed bond spreads (the bond markets view of inflation) have been falling while gold has been rising. Inflation/deflation is but one mover of gold. Bonds and gold both rose in the 1929-1949 period which was deflationary.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.
Posted 24 October 2004 - 09:12 PM
I know it's your business, bearbones. You know more than I do.Maybe we should ask Gary Shilling about this. He has a degree in physics and a PHD in economics.
How much interest would you charge an entity that has very little income (in a depression), very few assets and uses credit to pay his almost infinite debt?
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