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B4 The Belll Frieday October 22


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 07:07 AM

:D Welcome to B4 the Bell! :D

Money supply (see M2 below) has begun its electric slide downhill. As mortgage and other kinds of credit creation have slowed, so has the money supply. This is a leading indicator of how the economy is doing.

Will the dollar get even weaker?

Is It Time to Stem Asia Deficits With a Weak Dollar?
By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: October 22, 2004

THAT has gone wrong in the American economy in the last six months? That is not something being discussed on the campaign trail, but the answers provide an indication of the major policy problems the victor will have to address next year.

There is likely to be strong American pressure on much of Asia, not just China, to allow a major depreciation of the dollar. The details may be different depending on who wins the election, but the pressure will be there.

Such a ''weak dollar'' policy would raise the cost of imported goods, and thus hurt consumers. But the alternative is to see more and more American economic stimulus drain overseas as the trade deficit grows ever greater, making the eventual resolution that much more painful.

The main reason the recent American slowdown has gone undiscussed is that neither candidate wants to bring up the subject. To President Bush, such a question concedes that the recovery that seemed so impressive early this year has faded. For Senator John Kerry, such a question admits there was a recovery.

One explanation is that the prognosticators grew too enthusiastic. The surge in growth in the second and third quarters last year reflected a tax cut that sent checks to families with children, but excluded high-income families. It should have been no surprise that checks sent to parents in the summer would lead to a good back-to-school shopping season. Nor should it have been a surprise that there would be some retrenchment this year, when no similar checks arrived.


http://www.nytimes.c...html?oref=login

China expects a slowdown in, well, maybe about 20 years from now:

China's Economic Growth Slows in Third Quarter (Update2)
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than a year in the third quarter after a government crackdown on lending and investment.

Gross domestic product expanded 9.1 percent from a year earlier after climbing 9.6 percent in the second quarter, the government said in Beijing. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of eight economists was for growth of 8.9 percent.

China's growth peaked at 9.8 percent in the first quarter amid an investment boom that caused power shortages and clogged transport networks. Premier Wen Jiabao introduced lending curbs in April to cool the economy, crimping sales at companies including General Motors Corp. and Qingdao Soda Ash Industrial Co.

``The austerity measures are taking effect,'' said Bob Zhang, a senior economist at Core-Pacific Yamaichi in Beijing. ``All of the major indicators point to a slowdown. The tightening measures will remain intact for the rest of the year.''

Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said this month that the government's efforts to rein in investment are working and growth in the world's seventh-largest economy is slowing to a more sustainable pace. Growth of 7 percent to 8 percent would allow for a healthy economy for 20 more years, according to his deputy, Li Ruogu.


http://quote.bloombe...8NuY&refer=home

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Good trading! ;)

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#2 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 07:23 AM

Sinclair and Monex are sponsering free puts on gold out to March 05



"You know that I firmly believe the price of gold will be moving significantly higher. I also know that Monex feels the same way. So in discussions with Mr. Carabini and Mr. Hodges at Monex, we have made an agreement to benefit you but not me.



Monex and I will share the risk of a unique transaction that will allow those who are not large investors to own real gold coins without risk up to March 15, 2005.

On Thursday, October 21st I will execute a sworn affidavit that states that I receive no commission, paybacks, expense reimbursements or have any discount relationship whatsoever with Monex. As a result, I will have no financial benefit from this transaction, directly, indirectly or tangentially.

I will personally share the risk with Monex on a 50/50 basis without any benefit accruing to me. Please note that I will take no offense to anyone that wishes a copy of this affidavit mailed to them.

I am doing this because I believe in gold as a currency and genuinely want to give to you rather than take something from you"

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp?

Needless to say I will be taking the maximum amount thank you very much!

I applaude Sinclair and Monex encouraging all to...
TAKE DELIVERY
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#3 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 07:56 AM

And further..

"No Risk Guarantee By Monex With Jim Sinclair Accepting Half The Risk:

1. Product: Vienna Philharmonic 1 ounce gold coin.
2. Quantity: Maximum of 20 coins per reader.
3. Exclusive: Call 800-200-4454 which is reserved for members of www.jsmineset.com only. (We will announce another number in the next few days for people calling from outside North America). Please note that we will check to make sure you are a subscriber to www.jsmineset.com which incidentally is FREE.(How easy can we make it????)
4. Time Limitation: Purchases from today through October 31, 2004.
5. Payment: Remit funds after placing order and take personal delivery.
6. No Risk Guarantee: Members of www.jsmineset.com may sell back to Monex these coins at their original purchase price on March 15th, 2005 only regardless of what the market price for gold is. Of course if gold is up you have no reason or obligation to sell them back. The only obligation lies with Monex to buy back these coins at your purchase price on March 15, 2005. Should this cause Monex a loss, I will accept 50% of that loss.

There are no catches here. This is straight forward and the offer is made for the reasons stated above."...

Just talked to them. No catches.
Ordered the max for the open.
Who could refuse such an offer.
God bless Jim Sinclair and Monex!!!
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#4 DrStool

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 07:59 AM

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#5 jrmfl

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:06 AM

wonder how over-extended ol foghorn legghorn is this time.

not going to take him up on his offer when dropping dec calls, hannes tulving far more deserving of business.

called moanex and they chuckled about it... "oh, yeah, that off.. are you sure you don't want to consider some numis..."

of course they fade thier customers regularly and had a nasty habit of cheating
customers awhilke back.

huge spreads, massive shipping surcharges and illegal trading in customer accounts...

packing 100oz bars with PB.

good offer though, sinclairs trying to do the right thing.

#6 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:15 AM

wonder how over-extended ol foghorn legghorn is this time.

not going to take him up on his offer when dropping dec calls, hannes tulving far more deserving of business.

called moanex and they chuckled about it...  "oh, yeah, that off.. are you sure you don't want to consider some numis..."

of course they fade thier customers regularly and had a nasty habit of cheating
customers awhilke back.

huge spreads, massive shipping surcharges and illegal trading in customer accounts...

packing 100oz bars with PB.

good offer though, sinclairs trying to do the right thing.

I asked about spreads
Approx 3% over intrinsic for the Viennas which is competitive
15.00 handling charges for pickup in person

I ask

Where is the downside?
3% at worst should gold close lower March 15

And yes my friend
Sinclair is trying to do the right thing.
The only way these cheating slimy lowlife paper pushers can be defeated is through delivery and this is at least a start.
If Tulving would care to match the offer I would double up.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:19 AM

On Oct 18th, Sinclair posted the following:

"I will be traveling next week to attend a very private and important meeting in the United Arab Emirates concerning the introduction of the now somewhat forgotten but quite alive Gold Dinar. From there I will go on to the place of my beloved's transition to participate in traditional memorial activities to honor her.

Not to worry, I will be wired wall to wall and reporting to you daily. Assuming I am successful in the UAE you will be quite happy. Have no concern for me as I am a seasoned traveler in the Middle East and India and know better than most how to take care of myself.

Keep in mind that I am motivated by my dedication to you where the UAE meeting is concerned and to Barbara where I intend to honor her life by attending certain memorial activities [India]."


Means we should soon get some updates on progress with the Gold Dinar.

#8 GregFokker

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:30 AM

Sinclair and Monex are sponsering free puts on gold out to March 05



"You know that I firmly believe the price of gold will be moving significantly higher. I also know that Monex feels the same way. So in discussions with Mr. Carabini and Mr. Hodges at Monex, we have made an agreement to benefit you but not me.

 

Monex and I will share the risk of a unique transaction that will allow those who are not large investors to own real gold coins without risk up to March 15, 2005.

On Thursday, October 21st I will execute a sworn affidavit that states that I receive no commission, paybacks, expense reimbursements or have any discount relationship whatsoever with Monex. As a result, I will have no financial benefit from this transaction, directly, indirectly or tangentially.

I will personally share the risk with Monex on a 50/50 basis without any benefit accruing to me. Please note that I will take no offense to anyone that wishes a copy of this affidavit mailed to them.

I am doing this because I believe in gold as a currency and genuinely want to give to you rather than take something from you"

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp?

Needless to say I will be taking the maximum amount thank you very much!

I applaude Sinclair and Monex encouraging all to...
TAKE DELIVERY

Very impressive. Traders like to rag on Sinclair, but he puts his money where his mouth is, and he's on the right side of the trade. More goldbugs like him would make it a lot tougher for the criminals to push the market around. Add Dave Morgan to the list while we're at it.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#9 Butterfield 8

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:34 AM

Dollar chart says 85.98 with Euro at 1.2614. Does not compute. 85 should be higher euro. what am I missing?

#10 TURK

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:35 AM

[quote name='jrmfl' date='Oct 22 2004, 07:06 AM']wonder how over-extended ol foghorn legghorn is this time.

not going to take him up on his offer when dropping dec calls, hannes tulving far more deserving of business.

called moanex and they chuckled about it... "oh, yeah, that off.. are you sure you don't want to consider some numis..."

of course they fade thier customers regularly and had a nasty habit of cheating
customers awhilke back.

huge spreads, massive shipping surcharges and illegal trading in customer accounts...

packing 100oz bars with PB.

good offer though, sinclairs trying to do the right thing.[/quote]
[QUOTE]

jr,
I agree with your comments about Hannes Tulving. I have made 4 large orders with him in the last 18 months without a hitch. Spoke with him several times. He is very good and quite a gentleman. His spreads are the best I have seen and I have looked around a lot!! I am getting ready to make a large order to Tulving and take more physical off of the market.

Turk

P>S> I enjoy your commentaries. Keep'em coming!!
"Damn, the price of this stuff jumps around alot!"
Hokahay October, 2008

"Analyzing the spot price of gold is akin to analyzing the output from a randon number gereator." -ancient chinese proverb

#11 Butterfield 8

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:40 AM

Banks loaded to the gills on Euro and Loonie, E wavers still calling for fast slide to 1.14. dazed and confused

#12 Bastiat

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:50 AM

Saw a comment on another chat (which I have not verified) that Google's market cap now exceeds the combined market cap of GM and Ford. Everything is right in the world again.

#13 Butterfield 8

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:52 AM

Just had an email from a European bank. Said Euro is going to 1.40 by end of year

#14 GregFokker

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:57 AM

Dollar chart says 85.98 with Euro at 1.2614. Does not compute. 85 should be higher euro. what am I missing?

Doesn't the USD Index trade inversely to euros (cash & futures)? Lower DX fut = higher EUR fut.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#15 huey9

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Posted 22 October 2004 - 08:58 AM

google up 23 to 172





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