orvack Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Prechter's latest. Excerpt. Q: Can the Federal Reserve prevent deflation? ? A: No. We have a huge bond market of $30 trillion, which is debt already created. If bond investors came to believe that the Fed would begin printing money and throwing it around, what would they do? They would sell every bond they have got, which would lead to a decrease in the supply of credit because bond prices would fall and interest rates would rise. So there aren?t any alternatives to deflation. ? Q: What will be the outcome of deflation? ? A: The ultimate result is going to be a worldwide depression. There were deep depressions in the 1790s, the 1840s and the 1930s, and I think the next one is already underway. It started in 2001. We?ve had one or two every century, and we are headed into one now. ? Q: Gold bugs say we are in an inflationary era and that this is backed by the rapid rise in the price of the yellow metal from $250 an ounce in 2001 to above $400 recently. ? A: They didn?t say it at the low in February 2001, when gold was a buy at $250. The fundamentals were all bearish then, and even gold mines were hedging for further decline, which never came. Fundamentalist arguments don?t get you in at a bottom or out at a top. They often set traps so you?ll do the wrong thing. ? Q: But doesn?t the gold rally predict inflation? ? A: Think about this: Gold is trading exactly where it was in 1996 despite massive credit inflation over the past eight years. Why is that? I think the gold market understands the difference between credit inflation and currency inflation. A reversal in credit expansion . which is inevitable, will crush prices for everything, and the gold market knows it. The gold bugs. theory is that an increasing money, actually credit , supply should be bullish for gold and silver. But it hasn?t been bullish for 24 years, so why is it bullish now? Look, I might be wrong on my current outlook for gold. In 1995, in At the Crest, I called for the bear market to end about New Year?s Day of 2001, and it ended that February. So I?m somewhat conflicted. But that doesn?t mean that the bull?s arguments are any good. We have heard them at every gold top since 1980 and opposite arguments at the lows. People have a psychological imperative to come up with reasons to be bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms. Market analysis is a subtle and difficult craft. You can?t just look out your window and assume the obvious. That?s not to say the obvious never happens, but when it does, it?s luck. ? Q: Many contrarian writers are at odds with your views on gold and deflation. How do you account for the discrepancy? ? A: They believe that the 1970s will repeat. People in the early 1930s initially thought the .teens would repeat, but they didn?t. Many commodities have collapsed 30%-50% this year. Does that sound like runaway inflation to you? SouthChinaPost.com ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Ranger Rick pointed out that the Fed funds futures now show a 40% probability of a 2nd rate hike to 2.25% by the end of this year ... up from a 25% probability y'day. Even the next Nov. 10th hike to 2.00% is going to sodomize the economy and stock market, I think. Snarliing bearish ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Here comes the PPT to rescue the housing sector: http://139.142.147.26/GifChartEngine.dll?i...refreshrate=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 The Matrix at work ! Dave Morgan's website suspended... http://www.silver-investor.com If somebody knows what info he had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Well look at that HGX boosters ON UB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Prechter's latest. Excerpt. Q: Can the Federal Reserve prevent deflation? ? A: No. We have a huge bond market of $30 trillion, which is debt already created. If bond investors came to believe that the Fed would begin printing money and throwing it around, what would they do? They would sell every bond they have got, which would lead to a decrease in the supply of credit because bond prices would fall and interest rates would rise. So there aren?t any alternatives to deflation. * sigh * It's remarks like these which remind me that Bob Prechter graduated from Yale in Psychology ... not Economics, or even a useful scientific field. Credit has a supply-demand curve. If "interest rates rise," more supply of credit will be forthcoming because the yield is more attractive. Nothing about that process implies a deflation. Only widespread defaults, uncountered by gov't bailouts, would induce deflation. Bob Prechter's insights into mass psychology are usually worthwhile. But his persistent refusal to educate himself about the funny-mentals of finance handicaps his effectiveness as an anal cyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Short the RUT 576.50 Stops tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 My feeds went out 2 minutes after the market opened-anyone else get hit?? they are still not back up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 There are so many freaking disconnects in this pos they call a mkt. Look at cdwc and ibm? ANd hello, the homebuilders? WTF have they not been cut in half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 When people can't get enough of tv shows like House Swap and The Biggest Loser, just when their country's fabric is going down the drain, you know it's all over. When the Daily Show is the best news show you can find... When over 40% of Americans believe Saddam PERSONALLY planned 9/11... :cry: Sounds like you've got a big epidemic of CHAVS in the US. Chav is the new word in the UK to describe the majority of the population that; drools over celebrities worships designer clothes (especially where the Label is displayed prominently) have NO clue about anything that's going on in the world dream of being famous (a la Big Brother) drive vulgar cars call their children stupid names like Kylie, Tiffany etc live for TV programs like Jerry Springer, Geraldo or Dangerous TV stunts wear a lot of flashy jewellery view the latest mobile phones as status symbols etc etc Chavs are ruining the UK and it's all so sad. Of course Govt's love it because it dumms down the population so much that they (govt) pretty much get a free pass to do anything because a) nobody notices (too busy debating J-Lo's new hairstyle etc) and wouldn't understand what's going on even they did notice what's going on. Chavscum.co.uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 My feeds went out 2 minutes after the market opened-anyone else get hit?? they are still not back up! IB east coast server running smooth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 up up up* *free insights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Greenscum expressing "some" concern about consumer debt levels Revelations from the chairman of the biggest debt bubble the planet has ever seen. Understatement rules as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Greenie open mouth operations begin. Market rallies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Stopped out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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