Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

B4 The Bell Fryday 10/15/04


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
569 replies to this topic

#496 K Wave Rider

K Wave Rider

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 29,599 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:10 PM

[quote name='TURK' date='Oct 17 2004, 04:00 PM'] [quote name='K Wave Rider' date='Oct 17 2004, 05:42 PM'] My take on the Trannies..

The last trip up to 3400 showed a synchronous divergent sell setup out to the 240 min time frame, but the daily was not divergent, indicating the likely outcome was a pullback for a few dayz and then another run at the highs to create the final divergence..so far this is exactly how it is playin' out..

The weekly trannies are very extended ready to roll at any time..the next synchronous sell setup, which should become apparent within days, should be THE sell signal for the trannies..

[/quote]
[QUOTE]

K-wave.
I looked at the trannies in a diffierent way and came up with the same answer. Thanks for your take on this.
Would you mind giving your take on BBH for the next few days?

Thanks,
Turk [/quote]
Hi Turk,

Welcome to the gang.. :D

BBH looks to have to rolled over on many time frames..60 to 240 min timeframes all show big resistance now at 140ish..

Heres's a gander at the 120 min..rollover just startin' to get legs here, but looks like test of 140 very possible..

Attached Images

  • bbh120.PNG


#497 brian4

brian4

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,361 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:11 PM

I just read an article in the Financial Post which clearly shows what a House of cards we have become. The latest rage for banks is to securitize the Six-Packs Visa and Master Card debt by issuing Bonds in the 4 to 41/2% range which are backed not by the Banks that float the issue but by the SixPacks debt which is owed to the Banks. So the Six-packs make the minimum monthly payment and are close to their limit and the Banks charge 11 to 16+% on said debt and dump said debt in a Bond issue which gets them totally off the hook for 4 to 4-1/2%. CIBC just did the biggest one to date in Canada eh-$1.4 Billion. Some of the Schlumps in a Bond Fund don't even realize they are investing in a fund part of which is backed by their own debts. Which Shell is the pea under -right! ;)

#498 TURK

TURK

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPip
  • 733 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:16 PM

[quote name='K Wave Rider' date='Oct 17 2004, 06:10 PM']Welcome to the gang.. :D

BBH looks to have to rolled over on many time frames..60 to 240 min timeframes all show big resistance now at 140ish..

Heres's a gander at the 120 min..rollover just startin' to get legs here, but looks like test of 140 very possible..[/quote]
[QUOTE]

K-Wave,
Thanks for the chart!!
I thought the worst case SHOULD be a retrace to the moving averages converging at 140. I have 20 Nov poots at 140 strike.

Turk
"Damn, the price of this stuff jumps around alot!"
Hokahay October, 2008

"Analyzing the spot price of gold is akin to analyzing the output from a randon number gereator." -ancient chinese proverb

#499 chiefywiefy

chiefywiefy

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,378 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:22 PM

K-Wave:

Re:  Trannies

Shouldn't have UPS rolled over from those prior tops?  Looks like a possible measured move up to $90.

Talking to UPS employees, they say that when the stock hits 80 a split will be announced. That will probably be the top in the trannies.

Could easily see $80 this coming week..it's all lining up..

The truckers and rail workers are talking about their stock like no bear market sell off has ever occured. :blink: We are close to a top in the trannies. The only thing about the rails are that there IS a shortage of rail due to non-investment in the infrastructure over the years. As fuel for truckers become more expensive the rail system just can't handle the extra loads. So they do have pricing power. There are always rumors of rail take overs by UPS and/or FDX. So if I were to short the trannies, it wouldn't be the rails.

#500 Guest_Icky Twerp_*

Guest_Icky Twerp_*
  • Guests

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:39 PM

DPWN -- Deutsche Post -- DHL / Airborne -- attached

Everybody in the shipping business reported 20%+ y-o-y increases this year. . .
which have been extrapolated into the future as far as the eye can see. . .

Attached Images

  • DPWN.JPG


#501 depends

depends

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,198 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:48 PM

Actually, in a perverse way, I wish they would try
to rally tomorrow so I can cover some crappy longs
and get short big again. Comon Al, help me out here.

#502 pistolpapa

pistolpapa

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 171 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:50 PM

Pee Brain:

I just finished riding the motorcycle around the Hill Section in Manhattan Beach.

Unbelievable amount of spec homes going up, all financed by Vineyard National Bank.

Took lots of pictures.

Will be posting them on realestatebubblewatch.com tonight, maybe.

My handle over there is LAHomeflipper.............

I'm going to ride up there every two weeks or so to monitor construction progress, number of homes for sale, etc.


TEETERING, TEETERING

$3 GAS

OOOPS!


Los Angeles Times (Annette Haddad):  “For the third month in a row, the median price of a Los Angeles County home was flat at about $407,000 in September as the annual rate of appreciation hovered at just above 20%.  At the same time, the number of homes sold declined 7.8% from a year earlier, to 10,501, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla firm that compiles monthly housing statistics. Last year’s September was the strongest in 15 years…. Still, Los Angeles County hasn’t yet seen any ‘significant’ price decreases, said John Karevoll, DataQuick’s chief anal cyst.


From Friday's Doug Noland

#503 soup

soup

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,230 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:50 PM

My guess: When oil retraces , as all mkts do, the trannies will get killed. Every fricking moron fumble mgr ( you know the ones like fido who own big postions in mrk/mmc/aig/) is betting on a top in oil. Hell they have put the bet on from 35 bucks. Guess what? WHen everyone is thinking the same thing, no one is thinking.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#504 Mars

Mars

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 286 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:52 PM

Actually, in a perverse way, I wish they would try
to rally tomorrow so I can cover some crappy longs
and get short big again. Comon Al, help me out here.

Might get your wish the futures are showing a couple of bucks over FV.

#505 Jimi

Jimi

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,187 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:53 PM

What about Neely?  Dow 100,000?

What is Dow 100K in 45 years?
That is a 5.25% yield.
How much of that will be inflation?


6.5%? :lol:

this is a neat little trick... your asset appreciates by 5%/year, but inflation runs 4%/year. you pay 25% cap gains tax (state/Fed), so you net 3.75% annual gain, which is below or near the CPI/inflation rate.... if you asset appreciated by less thna 5%.... guess what? you're screwed? :unsure:

He conceded that a move to Dow 100,000 would be a function, in part, of inflation.

I can't remember if that was before or after he said that the United States would annex Mexico.

Whadda jackass.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#506 twignberries

twignberries

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 530 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:54 PM

This is for those who still believe the U.S. is in Iraq to spread freedom and prosperity with the idea of stopping the terrorists.

All of the following information can be found here.


Fact: In the first 11,860 years of documented human history (up until ~1850 AD), the human population of the earth was able to grow to a grand total of 800 million people. Average increase of 67,000 people per year.

Fact: In the 145 years since 1860, the human population of the Earth has grown to more than 6 billion. Average increase of 36,500,000 people per year - an increase in growth rate of 54,477%

Fact: First oil well was discovered in 1858 in Ontario, Canada.

Fact: The world's richest 30 countries have 18% of the worlds population and use 85% of the world energy resources.

Conclusion: Oil = Prosperity


Fact: U.S. oil discovery peaked in the 1930's and has been declining ever since.

Fact: World oil discovery peaked in 1965 and has been declining ever since.

Fact: U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 (coinciding with first Oil shock) and has been declining ever since.

Fact: Since 1981 the world has been producing/using more oil per year than it has been able to discover. In fact, the world is currently able to discover only about 1 barrel of oil for every barrel of production/usage.

Fact: World oil production peak is predicted for 2004 - 2008. If it has not already happened, it will happen very soon.

Conclusion: The U.S. and the world are running out of oil. There is not enough to go around.


Question: If oil = prosperity and the world is running out of oil, why would the U.S. want Iraq and other 3rd world countries to become prosperous? Prosperity means industry, automobiles, and higher energy demands.


Final Conclusion: The U.S. is in Iraq to secure oil, not to spread freedom and prosperity. In fact, the U.S. is actively using military force and the World Bank to keep the 3rd world down in order prolong its own prosperity.
When the last living thing has died on account of us, how poetical it would be if Earth could say, in a voice floating up perhaps from the floor of the Grand Canyon, “It is done.” People did not like it here.

- Kurt Vonnegut

#507 TURK

TURK

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPip
  • 733 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:57 PM

[quote name='Mars' date='Oct 17 2004, 06:52 PM'][quote name='depends' date='Oct 17 2004, 07:48 PM'] Actually, in a perverse way, I wish they would try
to rally tomorrow so I can cover some crappy longs
and get short big again.  Comon Al, help me out here.[/quote]
Might get your wish the futures are showing a couple of bucks over FV. [/quote]
[QUOTE]

Agree :P
Wonder if gold get smashed at the same time :angry:

Turk
"Damn, the price of this stuff jumps around alot!"
Hokahay October, 2008

"Analyzing the spot price of gold is akin to analyzing the output from a randon number gereator." -ancient chinese proverb

#508 twignberries

twignberries

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 530 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 07:59 PM

A visual picture:

Attached Images

  • FirstOilWellPopulation.gif

When the last living thing has died on account of us, how poetical it would be if Earth could say, in a voice floating up perhaps from the floor of the Grand Canyon, “It is done.” People did not like it here.

- Kurt Vonnegut

#509

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 08:08 PM

Drudge reporting tonight that the Florida election disaster has begun. :o

#510 anotherone

anotherone

    Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,049 posts

Posted 17 October 2004 - 08:15 PM

FDX looks more stretched out.

I don't know if this one has enough juice left to go higher............

Like I said...we 're real close here..

The question is hw much short interst is there in the main trannie components and how many days would it take to cover?
"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart