B4 The Bell Fryday 10/15/04
569 replies to this topic
Posted 15 October 2004 - 09:42 AM
im telling you its like mexico, where people would use pesos to buy brick becuase over time the price of the bricks would outpace the purchasing power of the currency... much bigger bricks in china of course, but same/similar principal.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
Posted 15 October 2004 - 09:45 AM
The problem with Bill Gross's argument is that he has his hedonics facts completely back-asswards. Hedonics overstates the value of an item. A grossly simplified example: a 1 ghz computer sells for $1,000. A 2 ghz model is introduced and also sells for $1,000 but the govt claims it as $2,000 because it is twice as powerful.
Secondly in his latest missive he really blurs the lines:
I would take that assertion one step further by using the following example that strikes to the heart of the hedonic debate. Say the only product that Americans purchase and consume are bags of gumdrops – 100 to a bag that cost $1.00 per bag, with each citizen limited to 1 bag. Through the miracle of productivity, a way is found to fill each bag with 110 gumdrops that is now priced at $1.10. The government’s hedonic adjustments would now calculate that the bag really only costs $1.00 and that the CPI has not gone up. After all, each gumdrop in the bag still only costs a penny does it not? It does. But here’s the catch and the con. The price of a gumdrop hasn’t gone up, but the cost of a bag of gumdrops has. Because Americans must buy 1 bag as opposed to individual candies, their cost of living has increased by 10%.
Uh excuse Me Mr. Bill, but the way I see it is that they simply buy fewer bags over a given period. Pretty lame there oh bond guru.
Con Job Redux
Posted 15 October 2004 - 09:47 AM
Anybody noticed this ?
Silver Warehouse Stocks
104 548 654
Posted 15 October 2004 - 09:49 AM
Brain, those 2003 China stats have been wildly reversed in many cases. Example China is now importing 67% less finished steel. Check with rog for other highlights. China is aiming for a soft landing but annoyingly the gear down alarm is sounding loudly.
Posted 15 October 2004 - 09:50 AM
U of M Consumer Sentiment Index WAY DOWN!!!
at 87.5 down from 94.2
Posted 15 October 2004 - 09:55 AM
But they are still buying coffee at Starbucks
Posted 15 October 2004 - 09:59 AM
just shorted itBut they are still buying coffee at Starbucks
Posted 15 October 2004 - 10:02 AM
The retail sales numbers were up on surprisingly good auto sales (apparently GM didn't get the memo) and this happens to coincide with the biggest one month decline in the U of M numbers that I can recall.
Posted 15 October 2004 - 10:10 AM
The US dollah index is at or near its June lows around 87 ... next is the early 2004 low around 85 ... next support after that is ZERO.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 15 October 2004 - 10:14 AM
It should have good support there MH!
Hard to believe China is finding it wise to trade their green confetti in for commodities, eh?
Posted 15 October 2004 - 10:17 AM
Perfect scam week action
Trin says sell
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson
The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board