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B4 The Bell Thursday October 14


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#316 Hiding Bear

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 08:42 PM

Hush up you. I still own the tankers


another top call TE.

also Yobob,you are one smart cookie.

the idea that China can continue to grow at this pace with Oil and commodities at these levels is ludicrous.

same thing happened in Australia during the real estate  and building boom...raw material costs went thru the roof.

The builders found to their horror that they couldnt pass the costs on to the buyers and everything just stopped dead...the real painful adjustment stage is still around the corner...someone will blink soon enough,probably the builders ala what Pulte homes did in the US.

As K-wave pointed out...lumber has crashed from $480 odd to $290 odd.

I think the fall in lumber is a sign of a fall in housing construction, which is to be expected if the economy is really slowing.

As far as China goes, they are somewhat more dependent on imports than the US. However much of that is used to produce goods - and the final consumer of a lot of those goods is the US.

The trade connections between China and US are quite intertwined now. While we are looking about how the US could slow down China, perhaps we should be thinking about how China may slow down US growth instead. Energy price increases will affect them too.

Once things start downhill in the world economy, it may become very difficult to determine who is going to end up relatively better off.

Beijing oil imports jumped 35 per cent this year and its reliance on a growing number of rogue states to meet its needs is putting it on a collision course with the United States. Sudan and Iran together supply 20 per cent of China's oil imports, and if economic sanctions were applied to either, Beijing would be unable to sustain its high growth rates.

Securing long-term supplies of oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper and other vital minerals has become the top priority for China, and it is investing everywhere. One new project is a 600-mile, $2bn pipeline from Burma's deepwater port of Sittwe, which will follow a projected railway line to China's south-western province of Yunnan. Another is the development of Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which China hopes to use to ship oil and gas from the Gulf. A pipeline to Xinjiang over the Karakoram Pass will follow.


http://news.independ...sp?story=572309

PS - Other moderators - I will be away on business most of tommorow.

B4 - Great job today! ;)

#317 Charvo

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 08:42 PM

With all this VIOXX stuff in the news, G.W. and Kerry battling on medical liability reform in the last two debates becomes a bigger factor.

#318 Ned38

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 08:46 PM

I can't seem to find "lumber" on Stockcharts.............can anyone help?

#319 HiHat

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 08:47 PM

my gut feeling is that we are close to the point of recognition
that the ........wall of worry........is topped off with razor wire.

all it's going to take is for the.......program trading shenanigins
to blow up in their face a few times.........before Big Boys.....SELL
this thing down to the "sleep" level.

there is not now.......nor does it seem probable that ........a suffient
amount of new buying is waiting to come in and sustain these valuations,
let alone propel up into some new leg...............

were all numb from contemplating derivative unknowns.........but truth
be told, a systemic siezure.....could arrive one day soon, like a thief
in the night...................

#320 HiHat

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 08:54 PM

End........thanks for thoughts. i'm no lawyer either, so will investigate proper course.

i tell you the truth , being involved in anything that smacks of shaking
something down for money, makes me uncomfortable.

but if facts turn out clear......then my mother deserves something.

#321 Ned38

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 08:55 PM

Nikkei down 114 at the moment

#322 The End

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:09 PM

I can't seem to find "lumber" on Stockcharts.............can anyone help?

http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:10 PM

Scare me... Come dressed up as the money supply
Richard Daughty
Archives
The Daily Reckoning
...the angriest guy in economics
The Mogambo Guru
October 14, 2004

- The Federal Reserve, tired of waiting for us idiot Americans to drive down to the bank in our almost-new SUV to borrow more money to buy new SUVs so that the money supply can expand, is moving into Buying Outright Mode to accomplish the same thing. This is, of course, the second-most ultimate monetary fraud, whereas the most ultimate monetary fraud being that you would accept an IOU from the Mogambo ("Money down the rat hole!").

And when you look at the category known as "U.S. Government Securities Bought Outright," it is up another $2 billion last week. The way it works is that, and you gotta admire the utter simplicity of it, the banks buy Treasury debt from the government, and the government spends the money. Then, later, when they think nobody is looking, the Fed sneaks around and creates some money out of thin air, and uses that new money to buy the debt from the banks, and then run that debt through the shredder. And since that gives the banks their money back, the banks use that new money to go out and buy up more Treasury debt, so that the government can spend some more money! It's like a miracle!



More: http://www.321gold.c...ghty101404.html :unsure:

#324 Ned38

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:11 PM

Thanks TE---------------------that's perfect

#325 pistolpapa

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:13 PM

In case you missed it:

A 100-year bear market?
Today's headlines confirm Prechter's dark predictions

Given this rapid, dramatic shift -- from the glowing promises of the '90s to the dark realities of today -- we felt forced to re-examine Prechter's predictions of a devastating market crash and a 100-year bear market.

Prechter's message never wavered: Recently he told me: "One thing I've repeated consistently is that the great bear market will take the DJIA at least below 1,000 and likely to below 400. Precedents for this severe a decline are the English stock prices in 1720-1722 and American stock prices in 1929-1932."


http://cbs.marketwat...rss&siteid=mktw

The Big Contraction is here and there will be no ideas or machinations that can stop it.

Straight-line thinking, Cause and Effect laws work fine during expansion (inflation).

I turn switch. Bulb lights.

When expansion stops and contraction (deflation) begins, straight lines begin to bend.

I turn switch. Maybe the bulb lights.

In order to extend the expansion phase past its natural contraction, Man has tried to set up his own laws of Cause and Effect.

He has attempted to make bending lines straight by controlling the immediate environment around which these laws operate (City Life).

But now he has created too many laws to fit into that immediate environment. They are spilling over into areas not under his control. (Ancient Iraq and Afganistan)

As he tries to fiddle with the spill-over, he must neglect the false Cause and Effect laws he once controlled and all the Causal laws are beginning to lose their Effects.

Thus the contraction has begun in earnest and there is no way out. If one can straight-line-think of a way out. It will not work.

*********

Life is a infinitely bigger than the one we see in our computer screens.

#326 NWD

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:16 PM

were all numb from contemplating derivative unknowns.........but truth
be told, a systemic siezure.....could arrive one day soon, like a thief
in the night...................

I entertain this as a serious possibility, though I don't feel qualified to say just how likely.

I seem to recall reading that 62% of US commercial bank assets consist of debt secured by real estate mortgages.

I imagine waking up one morning to discover that there is no bid on mortgage backeds.

#327 Mars

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:19 PM

Hush up you. I still own the tankers


another top call TE.

also Yobob,you are one smart cookie.

the idea that China can continue to grow at this pace with Oil and commodities at these levels is ludicrous.

same thing happened in Australia during the real estate  and building boom...raw material costs went thru the roof.

The builders found to their horror that they couldnt pass the costs on to the buyers and everything just stopped dead...the real painful adjustment stage is still around the corner...someone will blink soon enough,probably the builders ala what Pulte homes did in the US.

As K-wave pointed out...lumber has crashed from $480 odd to $290 odd.

I think the fall in lumber is a sign of a fall in housing construction, which is to be expected if the economy is really slowing.

As far as China goes, they are somewhat more dependent on imports on the US. However much of that is used to produce goods - and the final consumer of a lot of those goods is the US.

The trade connections between China and US are quite intertwined now. While we are looking about how the US could slow down China, perhaps we should be thinking about how China may slow down US growth instead. Energy price increases will affect them too.

Once things start downhill in the world economy, it may become very difficult to determine who is going to end up relatively better off.

Beijing oil imports jumped 35 per cent this year and its reliance on a growing number of rogue states to meet its needs is putting it on a collision course with the United States. Sudan and Iran together supply 20 per cent of China's oil imports, and if economic sanctions were applied to either, Beijing would be unable to sustain its high growth rates.

Securing long-term supplies of oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper and other vital minerals has become the top priority for China, and it is investing everywhere. One new project is a 600-mile, $2bn pipeline from Burma's deepwater port of Sittwe, which will follow a projected railway line to China's south-western province of Yunnan. Another is the development of Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which China hopes to use to ship oil and gas from the Gulf. A pipeline to Xinjiang over the Karakoram Pass will follow.


http://news.independ...sp?story=572309

PS - Other moderators - I will be away on business most of tommorow.

B4 - Great job today! ;)

If you would just think about something for a moment I believe that you can answer your own question.

Think of the problem as being the solution to a model. The model contains one article - a ball point pen. The ball point pen sells at Office Depot for $.25. Out of that quarter a whole slew of folks get some. Office Depot gets both profit and overhead and salaries and carrying costs for the note it used to borrow the money to buy the pen wholesale; the truck driver who delivered the pen got the milage and depreciation and gas and pay and overhead and interest on the note he used to borrow the money to buy the truck; the longshoreman who unloaded the container from the boat that held the pen got part of his salary from the pen as did the contractor who sub'd the job to the longshoreman and the contractor got part of his overhead and his office lease payment and his utility bill from the pen; the shipping line got part of their crew salary, overhead, interest and principal on the note used to buy the boat, and their insurance payments and fuel from that pen; the Chinese jobber who let the contract to a factory got part of his salary, his overhead, his utilities, his bribes and so on out of that pen; the factory owner got his possibles out of the pen too all the way down to the factory worker on the line who depends on part of that pen to feed his familiy. Now I haven't even gone into the raw material side of the model, the plastic and metal and chemistry that went into that pen plus all of the shipping and carting and hauling involved and all along the line everyone gets a piece of their daily bread from that pen.

So who is most affected by a business slowdown. Well it's simple - all the above and then some. But the one most affected will be the one who gets the biggest piece of the quarter. I don't know who that is but I suspect it's Office Depot - they are taking the biggest risk.

If you want a real brain teaser - try to figure out how many inventions went into getting that pen from raw material into your neighborhood store.

#328 K Wave Rider

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:35 PM

. I expect a bounce of 1 or 2% but just in case... I have to respect the charts. They say 1050 and soon.

Thinkin' the same..I bet they jam the market with IBM into it's earnings announcement on Monday..and then resume the decline..

Or we let go manana and never look back...

I favor scenario 1 at this point..butt, that could easily change tomorrow..

IBM in prime position fur a bounce toward 86..

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:43 PM

If we can't admire Mandela, then whom? Jesse Helms did not admire him, and it's a stern measure of the moral bankruptcy of Jesse's life. What does Nelson Mandela have to say to us, citizens of the United States of America, at this critical moment in our history?

"One power, with a president who has no foresight and cannot think properly, is now wanting to plunge the world into a holocaust."

This old warrior is not mincing words. It's little comfort to read European newspapers and the World Press Review and realize that an overwhelming majority of the articulate world--statesmen, poets, journalists, clergymen--endorses Mandela's misgivings with interest. It's not an irresponsible generalization to say that the community of nations, representing 90-plus percent of the earth's population, rejects our government's argument that Iraq must be invaded--and fears George W. Bush far more than it fears Saddam Hussein.

http://www.indyweek....-03-05/hal.html

#330 Bearman

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 09:48 PM

lots of talk about a kerry win and very gleeful :P



yes to crash :ph34r: if left of "teddy the swimmer" jfk wins


tax and spend more will not bailout the USA :angry:

transfer of wealth will not work either :rolleyes:

less goverment is the answer! fat chance hey :blink:

I have no dog in this fight ;) I am a US citizen and registered to vote independant. You? _____________________ silence





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