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B4 the Bell Frydaddy Oct 8, 2004


Guest yobob1

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But do we "gifted or cursed" really see what is transpiring?

 

Or are we also in for a big surprise?

It wouldn't be a surprise if we could predict it.

 

The outlier, that which is not expected, is something that takes everyone out of their comfort zone. To date it's all been managed whether it be currencies,rates or asset prices. The most difficult to manage are commodities and currencies.

A more serious decline in the dollar would force the Fed to raise short rates quicker and higher than they would like. Perhaps the rising commodity prices bring on a dollar crisis.

 

Eventually, highly priced markets and economies succumb to shocks because they are unstable. You just can't know when, where and what will do it.

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Inventories grew 0.9% in August

Inventories-sales ratio at 1.15 for third month in a row

 

By Corbett B. Daly, CBS Marketwatch

Last Update: 10:09 AM ET Oct. 8, 2004 

 

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Wholesale inventories rose 0.9 percent in August, the largest increase since March, the Commerce Department said Friday.

 

 

The rise was slightly higher than the 0.8 percent increase forecast by economists polled by CBS MarketWatch.

 

Wholesale sales rose 1.2 percent in the month. The inventories-sales ratio, and indication of demand, remained at 1.15 for the third consecutive month. That is slightly above April's record low of 1.12.

 

Inventories in July were revised to a 1.5 percent increase after the initial estimate of a 1.3 percent rise.

 

Durable goods inventories rose 1.7 percent for the second consecutive month. Automobile inventories rose 1.7 percent in August after rising 2.4 percent in July.

 

Non-durable goods inventories fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 1.2 percent in July.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?...%7D&siteid=mktw

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Rapidly approaching ripcord level for PHM. The stock is now up 6% for the year. However 90% of this years volume was purcahsed around $52 a loss of 5% on the year.

 

With mutual funds returns running at less than 1% for the year and Hedgies running on the flat line -5% is a big problem. Will they jam or will the fold?

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what many would have regarded as an embarrassing slip has become a theme of the Bush campaign - don't tax the rich, they won't pay anyway:

Oct 4 in Iowa:

President's Remarks at an Ask President Bush Event in Clive, Iowa

Let me tell you one other problem he has with that. He says, oh, I'm just going to tax the rich. Well, the rich hire lawyers and accountants for a reason -- that's to stick you with the tab. But we're not going to let him tax you, we're going to carry Iowa and the country in November. (Applause.)

then 3 days later in WI:

President's Remarks at a Victory 2004 Rally in Wausau, Wisconsin

THE PRESIDENT: And unfortunately that's the kind of promise more politicians keep. (Laughter.) He says the tax relief -- the tax increase is only for the rich. Now, you've heard that before. The rich hire lawyers and accountants for a reason -- to stick you with the bill. (Laughter.) The good news is we're not going to let him tax us this year. We're going to carry Wisconsin and win a great victory in November. (Applause.)

 

AUDIENCE: Four more years! Four more years! Four more years!

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