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B4 the Bell Frydaddy Oct 8, 2004


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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 06:58 AM

Welcome to B4 the Bell.

Headline get your attention? It should because it's real, but believe it or not it's not the US - it's China and that data is since the first of the year. Marshall Auerback has some interesting thinsgs to say about the Chinese and the dollar.

As CLSA strategist Christopher Wood notes, “The official focus in China on removing physical growth bottlenecks, while entirely understandable from the practical bottom-up point of view of an engineer, is without doubt leading to massive overinvestment given the undisciplined nature of the banking system”, a banking system which must be thoroughly reformed before any precipitous moves in the currency markets can be made. ........

.......... But have the Chinese overpaid (regarding Noranda) and does it in fact represent the future? Long-time China observers, such as Simon Hunt, note that China acquired a large range of physical commodities during the 2000-2001 recession (when prices were at rock bottom levels), and have historically been shrewd contrarian buyers. Therefore Hunt casts doubt as to whether this purchase actually represents the start of a significant new trend. He ascribes most of the noise surrounding the purchase (concomitant with the talk of revaluing the renminbi), as symptomatic of the usual speculative frenzy that one sees at the peak of commodity bull markets. Adding to Hunt’s skepticism, he further notes the simultaneous bursting of the housing and automobile bubbles in China, to which the markets have hitherto paid little attention:

“If the USA had seen a 60-70% fall in housing starts between the start of the year and August and a 38% fall in auto sales, markets there would be shaking. And yet markets appear oblivious to the facts.


Guess Who’s Coming To Dinner?

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Doolar, Earl and PMs all off a tad.

Make sure to get a front row seat for the jobs report, it ought to be a doozie. Snow was back pedaling, saying Florida will affect the numbers. Maybe he's gotten a preview? Maybe he's thinking about next months polling in Florida? Is he setting it up so that jobs "beat by a penny" ? Does he have a clue about what's really happening in this country? I'm pretty sure that this administration is as clueless about the economy as they appear to be about Iraq. Uh oh. :P

#2 The brown one

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 07:28 AM

That certainly got my attention,Yobob!

Excellent as always.

#3 DrStool

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 07:30 AM

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#4 DrStool

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 07:35 AM

The new Real Estate Bubblewatch.com is off to a good start. Thanks to all who have registered and posted. A permanent link to the site is located above this forum block.

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#5 Hiding Bear

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 07:40 AM

I expect that employment figures will come in worse than consensus. Based on weak retail sales, hurricanes, and only modest credit growth in September, at best we may see only a modest increase in employment numbers (although prior months may be revised due to benchmark revisions).

Doctor Copper:

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#6 The brown one

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 07:48 AM

Look at uncle Earl go!

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#7 rog

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:23 AM

Foreign central banks were selling t-bones last week
http://www.reuters.c...at001004_newsml

#8 longOnUranus

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:31 AM

swing and a miss...96K

meet the new boss....JFK

#9 rog

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:32 AM

96k jobs sept
aug revised down
mfg lost jobs

hurricanes had minimal effect

benchmark revisions +268k

all way below expectations

#10 Bearbones

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:35 AM

The "alternative measure" rate of unemployment continues to hover around 9%.

http://www.bls.gov/n.../empsit.t12.htm

#11 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:35 AM

Market was expecting manipulation and missed by a penny
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#12 GregFokker

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:35 AM

Bye bye Dumbia. Bye bye Prime Minister Evil. Don't let the door kick you in the ass.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#13 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:36 AM

No doubt the jobs number was much much WORSE then published
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#14 machinehead

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:37 AM

Rick Santelli said Fedheads are "passing the microphone around too much." Maybe that's a euphemism for passing the bong.

Gold popped a little after the McJobs number. I'm becoming a one-trick pony like Mad Al -- he prints currency, I buy gold.

Unfortunately, Al can't print oil ... :mellow:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#15 Bearbones

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Posted 08 October 2004 - 08:38 AM

Not much for Bush to crow about tonight. High oil prices, no jobs improvement, and wage growth below the rate of inflation.
Maybe he won't show up.





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