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B4 The Bell Humpday October 6


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#16 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:43 AM

Thanks for the correction Peak
Missed that.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#17 rog

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:45 AM

CMOS
lowers Q4 EPS ($0.17-0.21) vs $0.07 cons
revs to $110-115 mln vs $145.7 mln cons

ADTN
lowers Q3 EPS $0.23-0.24 vs $0.27 cons
revs $115 mln vs $123.3 mln cons

AMD
Pacific Crest uprgades from underperform to sector perform citing improving fundamentals and flash memory demand.

note to Pacific Crest AMD warned on monday night that flash memory demand is drying up.

#18 Hiding Bear

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:55 AM

Price inflation in this economy can only be dealt with in one way by the sheeple in this country.  Reallocation of precious resources.

Not really. That's a static view of household budgets.

Large numbers of sheeple receive gov't wages and 'transfer' payments, which can and will be increased with inflation, even if the money has to be printed.

There is also corporate welfare (Halliburton et al), which will continue to increase dramatically.

Although most wage earners won't 'keep up' with inflation, their wages WILL rise. It would have seemed absolutely impossible in the 1930s that wages could rise, but wages went up sharply in the 1940s. Conditions change, and our thinking must remain open.

One of the most convincing explanations of the enormous inflationary potential in the system is Sean Corrigan's six-page pdf article, posted here:

http://www.sagecapit...Archiv/c266.pdf

He details how the assets of the G3 central banks (US, Europe, Japan) have risen from $1.9 trillion in Oct. 2000 to $3.1 trillion in mid-2004 -- a 62% increase in what Corrigan calls "monetary uranium."

World foreign exchange reserves (all central banks) have grown by 87% since the end of 1998 to around $3.2 trillion -- and about two-thirds of that sum is held in dollars.

Finally, merely in the last six years, derivatives (a favorite yobob hobby horse) have mushroomed from $80 trillion to $280 trillion, a sum probably 8 or 10 times the size of the entire global economy. Corrigan reduces this incomprehensible figure to "$45,000 for every man, woman and child on the planet" (most of whom live in the Third World and make less than $100 per month).

I would stake my reputation (chequered as it is!) on the proposition that the coming debt default will be inflationary. Inflation is the ONLY exit strategy for the (largely) government debtors and guarantors. They will PRINT like there's no tomorrow -- as history shows they ALWAYS have done.

The central banks of the world are in a race to outrun the ruinous fiscal, trade, and monetary policies of the US - which are driven by the US$70 trillion federal debt monster. Countries believe that by expanding their money supply and monetary base as fast as the US, the values of their respective currency will remain stable against the US.

Perhaps they do not realize that the US trade and fiscal deficits will only grow over time, and will actually accelerate as time goes on.

Unless the currnet trade and monetary system seizes to function in the way we currently know it, or other countries finally say they are dropping out of a race to the bottom with the US$, the world money supply will move ever higher. And with that, so will inlfation.

#19 HiHat

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:21 AM

Many companies guiding lower on earnings. This will not ultimately
support a expanding mutiple "new bull leg".

#20 brian4

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:21 AM

Yep-I agree with Depends- Edwards by a slim margin, what I think was more important and will resonate with voters was Big Swinging Dicks personna which came across as angry and mean spirited as well as dictatorial. Anyone who is/was undecided has to be leaning Dem after watching the Idiot Princes meltdown and Merlins defense of the indefensible. Window at the Bell for 60 minutes, still thinking down! ;)

#21 Pee Brain

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:29 AM

Regarding the mortgage applications. I think a lot of the re-fi business now is moving from adjustables to fixed. The fed increases have turned up the heat on the pot full of frogs who are now uncomfortably warm. One of my employees is currently doing just that after having his payment go up. I don't think there is any punch in terms of cash outs going on.


ummm, bankrupycy court :P - the last time we went down this road FNM paid me $200/hr as an expert witless. if you dont believe in price inflation too bad, it'll be $300/hr this time around.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#22 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:30 AM

Regarding the mortgage applications.  I think a lot of the re-fi business now is moving from adjustables to fixed.  The fed increases have turned up the heat on the pot full of frogs who are now uncomfortably warm.   One of my employees is currently doing just that after having his payment go up.  I don't think there is any punch in terms of cash outs going on.

Yobob. Even though I more closely agree with machinehead in the endless 'flation' debate, I find myself agreeing with so much of what you write.

An analogy if I may: we are witnessing the death of the world's monetary system which could be compared to the death of a star.('star' as in Sol, our terrestrial Sun) The forces of deflation == Gravity. Ultimately Gravity rules.('Gravity's Rainbow') However, depending upon mass, does Sol collapse into the singularity of a Black Hole or does Sol go Supernova? (hyperinflation) As I've indicated, I'm leaning towards the latter due to TPTB struggling mightly to postpone death. The choice between currency debasement and death(deflation) is a simple one to make for the power drunk statists.

My take is that the inevitable is the death of the worldwide fiat monetary system. Something has to give. Energy issues are the icing on the cake. It is so DONE.

You have to keep in mind I do not operate or think in a trader's short term mentality. Not a slam, just an explanation. A year or two to me is short term thinking. A decade is intermediate and 30 years is long term. So please keep that in mind when you read what I write.

The hyperinflation scenario is plausible, however I see that as occurring as the last gasp of the fiat system some ways down the road. Once in a while it pays to look over your shoulder to see where you've been. Looking back we have had unbridled inflation (most of it occuring in the 1970s after Nixon closed the gold window) with momentary pauses leading us now to the point that the dollar only buys somewhere between 2 and 4 cents of what it used to depending on where you count from.

In the old days, governments were responsible for the control of the monetary base and in cases such as Weimar Germany or more recently Argentina you can clearly see the effects. Not true now, that power has been primarily relinquished to the CBs. If you hyperinflate the only clear winners are debtors and primarily the government debtors while the banks become clear losers. I can't for the life of me figure out why the banks would want to hyperinflate. Yes they have fought tooth and nail over the last several years to try and hold things together, but IMO when push comes to shove they will choose self preservation over hyperinflation. Debt repudiation and or repayment will take a lot of "money" out of the sytem in a big hurry.

Everything they have done over the last several years has gotten us nowhere. You can see it, I can see it and you can be damn sure the banks can see it. They know that they cannot control the situation only mitigate the effects on a temporary basis. What the global economy is facing is primairly a loss of confidence in it's ability to pick itself up and move forward. I don't think were fully acknowledging why that might be happening. It's really about the people and what they are thinking more than what the banks do. The global economy is 6 billion people making independent choices on a minute by minute basis. It is IMO far more complex than the global weather which they fail miserably to model with the most powerful computers on the planet.

Could I be wrong? That's a question I ask myself almost daily. In the end when I look at the fundamentals, I keep coming back to the same conclusion. You see I happen to believe that unbridled lending to unqualified people always leads to defaults. And boy howdy they've done that in spades on a global basis. Personally I'm really positioned for either eventuality. Being debt free with substantive cash savings addreses deflation while my PM postion covers the inflation side.

#23 Pee Brain

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:32 AM

MH,

wages may increase, but natty gas is up 20% in a few days.

its now going on 3 months since i went to a rock quarry/accpeted an appraisal assignment. its so easy just sitting back and being non-productive while the US consumer carries the load :lol: i love the new paradigm.

Yobob1,

im in the same position, but with a real estate compnent - F&C of course, that was one reason for selling a couple props; i was way overweight in r.e. in terms of net worth.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#24 purdymouth

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:34 AM

SIRI bagholders?

currently 3.94 after shooting above 4

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#25 soup

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:39 AM

be it up or down, for just a couple of days I would like to see the spx Underperform the dow.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#26 soup

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:41 AM

Perhaps someone could point out to these shills that Nevada is basically a desert? "7:12AM Toll Brothers reiterates continued strong demand for luxury homes (TOL) 43.43: Company confirms that building activity in Las Vegas remains very healthy, saying "We believe Las Vegas is a land-constrained market: Demand outweighs supply." "
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#27 Pee Brain

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:42 AM

http://melduke.blogspot.com/

too long to paste, too good to abbreviate
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#28 purdymouth

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:43 AM

market launch imminent

huge head of steam

#29 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:45 AM

Perhaps someone could point out to these shills that Nevada is basically a desert? "7:12AM Toll Brothers reiterates continued strong demand for luxury homes (TOL) 43.43: Company confirms that building activity in Las Vegas remains very healthy, saying "We believe Las Vegas is a land-constrained market: Demand outweighs supply." "

Hmmm that seems to run counter to the reported price slashing. Sure building activity remains healthy - they don't know anything else. I think the question is about to become "We have built it, will they come?"

#30 K Wave Rider

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 09:58 AM

Perhaps someone could point out to these shills that Nevada is basically a desert? "7:12AM Toll Brothers reiterates continued strong demand for luxury homes (TOL) 43.43: Company confirms that building activity in Las Vegas remains very healthy, saying "We believe Las Vegas is a land-constrained market: Demand outweighs supply." "

I can confirm that building activity "remains healthy" in Vegas..I was astounded by the sheer number of new homes goin' up my last trip there a few months ago..

The question is, how in the hell are they goin' to sell all that inventory?





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