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B4 The Bell Humpday October 6

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#196 traderfromhell


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Posted 07 October 2004 - 05:42 AM

Could someone tell me what Richard Russell's Primary Trend Index is saying now?

New high. What were you expecting?

If his PTI is at a new high we should all be ballz to the wall long then right?
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#197 trinharder


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Posted 07 October 2004 - 05:48 AM

From Russell's October 6th Dow Theory Letter: obviously no link

What does all this mean for the nation? Honestly I don't have the answer-all I have are my own guesses. One guess, the consumer is tapped out. Second guess- business is slowing down. Third guess- rising short rates are pressuring the "carry trade". Fourth guess- Iraq has turned into a bloody disaster. Fifth guess- US current account deficits are starting to worry our foriegn creditors. Sixth guess- all of the above, or possibly something entirely different is in the wind. My instinct and advice is to get into cash. When you're standing on the railroad tracks and the train is barreling down on you, you don't ask whether the train is the Midnight Special or the Wabash Cannonball, you just get the heck off the tracks.

I take this recent action as indicative of "exhaustion." It appears that both the economy and the market, at least as measured by the US's largest stocks, has run out of steam. My interpretation is that the upward correction of the initial leg of the bear market is now in the process of topping out- this in the face of the best efforts of the Federal Reserve, and despite the greatest infusions of credit in stock market history.

#198 zensmoke


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Posted 07 October 2004 - 06:37 AM

DJ US Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead
All dates are in ET Time.

Thursday, October 7, 2004
  ET/GMT                                                    Expected  Previous
0800/1200          Cleveland Fed Pres Pianalto speaks at
                   economy and business summit in
0830/1230  Oct 2   Initial Jobless Claims                   -19K      +18K
0930/1330         Fed Vice Chairman Ferguson speaks on
                   free trade at Cato Institute conference
                   in Washington
0930/1330          US Tsy Secy Snow speaks with local
                   business leaders in
1000/1400  Sep 25  DJ-BTM Business Barometer                          +0.7%
1100/1500          US Tsy Secy Snow tours Independence
                   Center in Independence, Missouri
1300/1700          Fed Gov Bernanke speaks on central
                   banks and monetary policy at Japan
                   Society luncheon in New York
1430/1830          Fed Chairman Greenspan speaks via
                   satellite at the "Reflections on
                   Monetary Policy: Twenty-Five Years
                   After October 1979" conference at
                   Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1500/1900  Aug     Consumer Credit                          +$5.4B    +$10.9B
1630/2030         Money Supply
1745/2145          Dallas Fed Pres McTeer speaks on the
                   economy in New York
1800/2200          Tsy Undersecy Taylor speaks at
                   "Reflections on Monetary Policy:25
                   Years after October 1979" in St. Louis
1830/2230         Atlanta Fed Pres Guynn speaks at
                   conference hosted by Federal Reserve
                   Bank of Atlanta
   N/A     Sept    Chain Store Sales

Friday, October 8, 2004
  ET/GMT                                                    Expected  Previous
0830/1230  Sept    Unemployment Rate                        5.4%      5.4%
0830/1230  Sept    Non-Farm Payrolls                        +145K     +144K
0830/1230          US Tsy Secy Snow participates in
                   roundtable with family business
                   administrators in Toledo, Ohio
0940/1340  Sept    ECRI Inflation Gauge                               118.5
1000/1400  Aug     Wholesale Trade                          +0.8%     +1.3%
1000/1400          Fed Gov Bernanke participates in panel
                   discussion at "Reflections on Monetary
                   Policy: Twenty-Five Years After October
                   1979" conference in St. Louis
1200/1600          Fed Vice Chairman Ferguson participates
                   in panel discussion  at the
                   "Reflections on Monetary Policy:
                   Twenty-Five Years After October 1979"
                   conference in St. Louis
1200/1600          Tsy Undersecy Taylor speaks at
                   "Payments in the Americas" conference
                   in Atlanta
1230/1630          US Tsy Secy Snow tours Dana Automotive
                   Systems Technology Center in Maumee,
1400/1800          Bond markets close early
1830/2230          Tsy Undersecy Taylor to speak at
                   Wharton Finance Conference in
2100/0100          Pres Bush and Sen Kerry debate in St.

Dow Jones Newswires

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