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B4 The Bell Humpday October 6


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:12 AM

:D Welcome to B4 the Bell and welcome new forum members! :D

Congress will grill FNM's chief executive, Franklin D. Raines, and chief financial officer, Timothy Howard. It should be fun to watch. Even though they intend to deny all misconduct, they will feel the grill uncomfortably warm and getting hotter.

The micro-mortgage boom is still hanging on by its last fingernail:

U.S. mortgage applications flat last week - MBA
Wed Oct 6, 2004 07:00 AM ET
NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. home loans were virtually unchanged last week although 30-year mortgage rates rose to their highest level in a month, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of mortgage activity stood at 724.8 for the week ended on Oct 1, flat from the previous week's 724.7.

Thirty-year mortgage rates, excluding fees, averaged 5.78 percent, rose 0.14 percentage point from the previous week and were a mere 0.01 percentage point lower from a year ago, the Washington trade group said.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index on new refinancing applications rose by 2.7 percent to 2,270.8 for last week from the previous week's 2,211.1.

The association's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, fell last week by 2.2 percent to 459.0 from 469.1 in the prior week.

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=6427312

An opinion on our developing energy crisis (which I may not completely agree with):

Oil Fantasies

By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, October 6, 2004; Page A27

The recent surge in oil prices to roughly $50 a barrel teaches some useful lessons. One is that surprises happen. A year ago futures contracts predicted today's price would be $25. A second is that the economy has grown less vulnerable to oil "shocks." Compared with 1973, we now use almost 50 percent less energy for each dollar of output. New industries (software, theme parks) need less than the old (steel, chemicals). But the largest lesson is depressingly familiar. Americans won't think realistically about oil. We consider cheap fuel a birthright, and when we don't get it, we whine -- rather than ask why or what we should do.


http://www.washingto...4-2004Oct5.html


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Good trading! ;)

January NG:

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#2 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:13 AM

You beat me by one minute HB. Shouldn't have added the silver info. :lol:

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A memo by President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers stated that revised data for March 2003-March 2004 could be revised upward by 288,000 jobs, and as much as 384,000, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The data will accompany September's payroll employment numbers.

The White House estimate, prepared by career CEA technical staff, has no effect on what the independent Bureau of Labor Statistics will actually report Friday, the newspaper reported.

Yobob reported that all of the BLS's staff have said their families were being held hostage and unless they report a million new jobs on Friday their families will be sent to Gitmo.

The Journal quoted CEA spokesman Phillip Swagel as saying the CEA estimates were "very preliminary," adding they were generated by an economic model with a typical statistical error range of +/- 140,000 jobs.


White House sees broad jobs revision

I have given up. Inflation will rule the day. I have now gone long proxy shares of the CRB. That absolutley guarantees a CRB collapse. :lol:

Seriously folks look around and see who your bedfellows are, and you have plenty. The boat is now so lopsided a roll over is imminent. Butters asking how to buy into the CRB was the capper, along with GS advising their clients to get into commodities. " Come on in the water's fine, we'll be happy to sell you what we have already made a bunch of money on"

But why won't the bonds confirm? Do they see something you don't see or are as some would suggest just another fully manipulated market? And if all the markets are manipulated why would you play at all? If you sat down at a Blackjack table and the dealer told you you are going to lose, would you play?

I worte a long time ago that I thought the dollar was stuck in a range of roughly 85-90 and would likely remain there for a long time to come. That's about what it has done for the last year. I think this may be what the early stages of competitive devaluation looks like in an all fiat environment. A lot of jostling with no clear winners. And no China will not depeg anytime soon without some sort of serious outside event. They simply have no incentive to do so.

Oil will certainly cause some price inflation and we've had the transitory ALL China ALL the time commodities boom. I think it's over. Sufficient time has passed that higher prices will have attracted additional supply just as the US economy is stumbling into Fall right on cue as my script posted about a year ago calls for. The election has muddied the views for now, but afterwards it should be crystal clear. The POR should arrive shortly thereafter. Shortly in my book means before the end of Q1 05.

Price inflation in this economy can only be dealt with in one way by the sheeple in this country. Reallocation of precious resources. They have no savings and their borrowing ability is extremely limited given what they already owe. Wage inflation is non-existant and when the construction boom begins winding down in earnest there's going to be blood in the streets. Additionally the current and future job losses are likely to hit the bloated white collar sector much harder. Those are the higher paying jobs and populated by folks with the two SUV payments and the 90% mortgage.

I personally don't think it's going to be residential failure that hits the banks first. (WaMu and Wells might be exceptions) I think it will be commercial RE.(commercial in my definition is any non-residential, non-government RE) The GSE's have gobbled up most of the res RE paper so that left the banks to lend for commercial projects. They all saw this tremendous growth opportunity in that sector, aided by more liberal lending guidelines. The problem is that ALL the banks were looking at the same blob of opportunity. So without regard for what anybody else might be doing they have plowed ahead. The resultant overbuild in commercial is staggering, especially when you consider the already extreme vacancy rates.

As I watch the local RE trustee sales notices a new trend is emerging. Rescheduled sales are increasing as the original notices were interupted by bankruptcy. If this is a national trend a lot of defaults have been in limbo and may not have been reported as non-performing loans with Enronesque accounting.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Cheney/Edwards looked like a draw to me. I couldn't watch it all - too much regurgitation of the party lines spewed in the first debate. Cheney continued lying and Edwards couldn't break through Big Dicks cone of silence. I might give a slight edge to Edwards for not getting blown out of the water by Cheney. I miss the days of Ross Perot when at least we had more real debates with more candidates plus Ross's fun charts and graphs.

Looks like someobdy in London wants some silver and once again that mystery nose dive in the Hong Kong markets has reappeared. See it here:
Kitco Live Silver

#3 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:24 AM

Regarding the mortgage applications. I think a lot of the re-fi business now is moving from adjustables to fixed. The fed increases have turned up the heat on the pot full of frogs who are now uncomfortably warm. One of my employees is currently doing just that after having his payment go up. I don't think there is any punch in terms of cash outs going on.

#4 DrStool

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:29 AM

Edwards won the debate hands down before they even started responding to the questions. As my wife said, "He's cute." I liked him because he looked just like me when I was 18.

It ain't about substance people. People vote their emotions.

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#5 DrStool

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:35 AM

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#6 DrStool

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:37 AM

http://Realestatebubblewatch.com

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#7 The brown one

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:51 AM

You know Doc,it's funny that you should say that!Before the debate my wife said she thought Dick was a pretty sexy guy--all things considered!!And she finds very few men sexy,so she tells me!

After the debate--complete reversal.Dick's now a mean,lying,cheating underhand politician just like I've been trying to tell her :lol:

The thing that really got her were his lips.They revealed his meaness!

#8 machinehead

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 07:56 AM

Price inflation in this economy can only be dealt with in one way by the sheeple in this country.  Reallocation of precious resources.

Not really. That's a static view of household budgets.

Large numbers of sheeple receive gov't wages and 'transfer' payments, which can and will be increased with inflation, even if the money has to be printed.

There is also corporate welfare (Halliburton et al), which will continue to increase dramatically.

Although most wage earners won't 'keep up' with inflation, their wages WILL rise. It would have seemed absolutely impossible in the 1930s that wages could rise, but wages went up sharply in the 1940s. Conditions change, and our thinking must remain open.

One of the most convincing explanations of the enormous inflationary potential in the system is Sean Corrigan's six-page pdf article, posted here:

http://www.sagecapit...Archiv/c266.pdf

He details how the assets of the G3 central banks (US, Europe, Japan) have risen from $1.9 trillion in Oct. 2000 to $3.1 trillion in mid-2004 -- a 62% increase in what Corrigan calls "monetary uranium."

World foreign exchange reserves (all central banks) have grown by 87% since the end of 1998 to around $3.2 trillion -- and about two-thirds of that sum is held in dollars.

Finally, merely in the last six years, derivatives (a favorite yobob hobby horse) have mushroomed from $80 trillion to $280 trillion, a sum probably 8 or 10 times the size of the entire global economy. Corrigan reduces this incomprehensible figure to "$45,000 for every man, woman and child on the planet" (most of whom live in the Third World and make less than $100 per month).

I would stake my reputation (chequered as it is!) on the proposition that the coming debt default will be inflationary. Inflation is the ONLY exit strategy for the (largely) government debtors and guarantors. They will PRINT like there's no tomorrow -- as history shows they ALWAYS have done.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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#9 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:13 AM

I couldn't help but notice Swinging Dicks posture.
Arms wrapped tightly and hunched forward.
Not a reflection of openness.

I expected more out of Edwards. He had an opportunity, on a few occasions, to bury his opponent but didn't capitalize.

Again the number one issue facing America was all but lost. Debt. Instead it was all about Iraq where the dems position remains nebulous at best. Tell the decided votes what they want to hear and move on.

This election will go right down to the wire unless Kerry comes out of the closet and shakes up the mindset of those who are leaning towards the "war on terror"
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#10 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:25 AM

...Corrigan reduces this incomprehensible figure to "$45,000 for every man, woman and child on the planet"

MH
that is staggering

and yes ..I too will go with history. There is no other option.
The metals smell the unchecked insanity long developing with the triple deficits. If there is another escape route I would appreciate an explanation.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#11 rog

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:26 AM

Edwards won the debate hands down before they even started responding to the questions. As my wife said, "He's cute." I liked him because he looked just like me when I was 18.

It ain't about substance people. People vote their emotions.

Doc,

your wife looked like edwards when she was 18yrs old??!!! Is there something your not telling us!

:P

#12 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:32 AM

Silver is screaming again. 7.20 +.14
This is getting very exciting
PAAS will begin to move like the internet bubble stocks of old once the mms wake up. I have been waiting for many years for what is unfolding.

For those interested, last night, Sinclair had brilliant piece on open interest with regards to commodities. Gold and Silver have been breaking all the rules as the cartel is not subject to margin calls we mere mortals are. Very interesting study and well worth the read.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#13 PeakOil

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:35 AM

Regarding the mortgage applications.  I think a lot of the re-fi business now is moving from adjustables to fixed.  The fed increases have turned up the heat on the pot full of frogs who are now uncomfortably warm.  One of my employees is currently doing just that after having his payment go up.  I don't think there is any punch in terms of cash outs going on.

Yobob. Even though I more closely agree with machinehead in the endless 'flation' debate, I find myself agreeing with so much of what you write.

An analogy if I may: we are witnessing the death of the world's monetary system which could be compared to the death of a star.('star' as in Sol, our terrestrial Sun) The forces of deflation == Gravity. Ultimately Gravity rules.('Gravity's Rainbow') However, depending upon mass, does Sol collapse into the singularity of a Black Hole or does Sol go Supernova? (hyperinflation) As I've indicated, I'm leaning towards the latter due to TPTB struggling mightly to postpone death. The choice between currency debasement and death(deflation) is a simple one to make for the power drunk statists.

My take is that the inevitable is the death of the worldwide fiat monetary system. Something has to give. Energy issues are the icing on the cake. It is so DONE.

#14 depends

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:37 AM

I couldn't help but notice Swinging Dicks posture.
Arms wrapped tightly and hunched forward.
Not a reflection of openness.

Edwards seemed to be slightly edgy last night.
I hope he was aware that he was sitting with a man who
bears responsibility for both Vietnam and Iraq. Two colossal evils.

Dick lives the lie. He can't go into the truth at all as that
would lead to his own conviction and bring down Kissinger
and the others.

Edwards only looks like a choir boy.

Edwards by a margin. Nader would' squished 'em both.

Can't see where the market really cares, but think what if chainknee
had outclassed Edwards? Living the big lie is added drag. JMO.

#15 PeakOil

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Posted 06 October 2004 - 08:40 AM

Silver is screaming again. 7.20 +.14
This is getting very exciting
PAAS will begin to move like the internet bubble stocks of old once the mms wake up. I have been waiting for many years for what is unfolding.

For those interested, last night, Sinclair had  brilliant piece on open interest with regards to commodities. Gold and Silver have been breaking all the rules as the cartel is not subject to margin calls we mere mortals are. Very interesting study and well worth the read.

Actually Dan Norcini wrote that piece, which may also be found here.





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