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B4 The Bell Moonday October 4


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 07:11 AM

:D Welcome to another week of trading, humor, insights, served with some political barbs and what-not at B4 the Bell! :D B4 has as its central theme short-term trading, lead by the astute technician Brain4. But it is also about any technical and economic issues that members think affects that - in a cordial atmosphere of a 24/7 international family lounge.

The reasons given for today's blastoff is that oil has dropped - for just one day.
Get your party hats on! :P

Kidding aside, bears will have to step aside to see if we are breaking out or faking out.

The National Post sees the end of oil:

Is the age of oil coming to an end?
Jonathan Kay
National Post
October 2, 2004

Motorists around the world should enjoy driving while they can, because we may be in the twilight years of the oil age.

With crude at US$50 a barrel and producers operating near maximum output, fears are widespread that the world is on the cusp of a major oil shock. In a four-part series beginning today, the National Post looks at what lies ahead for a world increasingly dependent on an increasingly scarce resource.

In the billions of years since its creation, our planet has produced about two trillion barrels of commercially extractable oil. In the space of little more than a century, humans have burned almost half of that. And we will likely make far quicker work of the rest. Oil consumption was once monopolized by a small set of wealthy Western nations. No longer: In Asia, in particular, hundreds of millions of upwardly mobile citizens crave the same gas-guzzling conveyances the West has taken for granted since the First World War.

Thanks to corporate upheaval in Russia, tribal warfare in Nigeria, Iraq's insurgency and the threat of a terror attack against Saudi oil terminals, it is not hard to imagine a new crisis pushing the price of oil into three figures. But though such a spike could set the world's economy reeling, the effect would likely be short-lived. Wars, uprising and political squabbles eventually end. And the first order of business for whichever government they leave standing is usually to get the pumps up and running. The far more intractable problem will arise when those pumps start going dry and there aren't enough new ones to replace them.


http://www.canada.co...10-882af0e95b70
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Rules: Doc says - "... discussion of politics and world affairs on this thread is permitted, but 911 conspiracy discussions are off limits."

Good trading! ;)

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#2

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:05 AM

RCL sees 10 cent per share hit from hurricanes.

Good timing on the release of the news, eh?

These monkeys will jam the crap out of it today

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:09 AM

Genital Erectlic reports earnings on Friday

#4 machinehead

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:10 AM

Well, the PPT heathen are raging this morning, aren't they?

I just gave 'em an upraised middle finger by shorting another Naz fuc-u-ture.

Who cares ... trees don't grow to the sky. :lol:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#5 purdymouth

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:12 AM

Who will be attacked first for their bullish statements?

:unsure:

#6 DrStool

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:12 AM

Party Over

Rougher Road Ahead

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#7 DrStool

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:16 AM

machine-

In the past, and correct me if I am wrong, I think you have mentioned that you use leverage sparingly in your fucutures trading. I think this is an important concept. Limiting leverage increases your staying power when you are early. (Not saying that you ARE early in this case. :lol:) But I think it is certainly an important concept in managing risk. Leverage can make you rich, but it can also kill you first.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#8 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:29 AM

Well said Doc
There will be another train coming down the track
Patience is key here.
Moves in everything becoming more unpredictable by the day.
Dislocation is on the doorstep.
Watching and waiting.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#9 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:31 AM

I'll be damned glad when the crowning of our new king is over.

If the military in this country were resolute in their sworn duty to defend the Constitution (first thing in their loyalty oath), we would have had a military coup about a 100 years ago. Everyone places their hand on a bible ( what happened to separation of church and state?) and swears to defend the Constitution. Yet none do. Most politicians find the Constitution inconvenient - a road block to their personal aspirations and so over time the Constitution has become a hollow shell easily over-ridden by executive orders or stupidly written legislation, all backed up by a Supreme Court rife with political motivations.

IMO, what's left of the Constitution will not survive another 4 years of Shrubco. Nor do I believe that Kerry will be "good" for the Constitution - just less harmful. Do I think Kerry if elected will loose the dogs and uncover everything this corrupt administration has done over the last 4 years? Get real - wouldn't happen for fear of like retribution at the end of his term. The reality is Kerry is different than Shrubco, will likely help mend some global relations and will likely spend the country further into a hole. I think he can help extricate us from Iraq but only by giving up on US domination of Iraq oil - which at the end of the day has been the real issue all along. Anyone who thinks we give a rat's ass about some population suffering under some dictator is delusional. This isn't about freedom and democracy, WMDs or human rights - it's about oil.

IMO a Kerry win only buys us 4 years to come up with a true alternative - something other than the one party system masquerading as a two party system. Personally I'm not too sure "partys" shouldn't be banned as an opening method of taking the money out of politics.

#10 machinehead

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:43 AM

machine-

In the past, and correct me if I am wrong, I think you have mentioned that you use leverage sparingly in your fucutures trading. I think this is an important concept.  Limiting leverage increases your staying power when you are early.  (Not saying that you ARE early in this case. :lol:)  But I think it is certainly an important concept in managing risk.  Leverage can  make you rich, but it can also kill you first.

Rule #1 is to keep 30% of futures contract total value as cash margin in the account -- that's 4 or 5 times "minimum margin," which is really only a day-trading margin to protect the borker. (e.g., 100 oz. gold contract = $42,000 total value ==> maintain $12,600 margin against it)

Rule #2 is know when to violate Rule #1. :lol:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#11 machinehead

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:45 AM

The "PPT Bear Roast" gets out of hand
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"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:48 AM

IMO a Kerry win only buys us 4 years to come up with a true alternative - something other than the one party system masquerading as a two party system. Personally I'm not too sure "partys" shouldn't be banned as an opening method of taking the money out of politics.

A-Greed Yobob...

The "Party" is over, and the two-party system is the problem.

Actually, Campaign Finance Reform is essential. We own our nation's airwaves, and should be entitled to REAL debates on our airwaves for free. It is the media companies who are keeping the money in the campaign-end of politics....because ultimately, it becomes their money. Whichever party ultimately provides the media companies with the greatest windfall becomes the party they back - whether overtly or covertly.

As Sumner Redstone said so clearly:

"I cast my vote on behalf of Viacom."

Why was the media such a lapdog for Bush in the lead up to war?

Follow the money. The system could not be more corrupt.

#13 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:52 AM

Meaningless economic fundamentals:

We suggest that it’s this conceptual inflection point that may be the key to timing a real consumer slowdown at some point. As you know, we’ve gotten the hint of consumer slowdown’s from time to time over the past three to four years, yet into each breach stepped yet further extraordinary credit availability and financing opportunities, along with government sponsored tax cuts that were directly aimed at supporting the heart of the US economy – consumption. Dare we say, "it's different this time?" This go around, Fannie won't be there to catch us. Freddie won't be there to catch us. Greenspan and the Fed are presently working without a net in terms of monetary policy. And there's no question that further tax cuts of meaning are not in the offing.

The Outer Limits?

#14 twignberries

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:53 AM

Beardrech, re: your post on the previous thread:

One of the more hellish paradoxes operating continuously within the infernal precincts we all occupy is the time honored one:"No good deed will go unpunished"

By that I mean that all of the best-intentioned pacifist politicking has always,I mean always, aroused the appetites of the likes of predators du jour,like Osam Bin Ladown-

They always smell :the meatsa akookin" whenever a leader signals his intention not to go to war under any Bannered cause and to persuade half a nation to follow him---

Bertrand Russel ,world war I resister,thought of killing himself when ,for a moment he saw himself committing the error described above,but being the philosopher managed to extricate himself from the dillema's horn--

At one point,much later in history, he wanted the West,nuclear monopolists at the time. to drop nukes on top of Stalin's head to finish him off lest he use them first ; but when the time passed he returned to his former position of animated sanctification--and I'm only partly jesting because all pacifist absolutistsARE indeed setting themselves up for MARTYRDOM: the certain consequence, if his position is widespread and taken seriously

beardrech  War is a crime ----AND THAT'S WHY THE CRIMINALS MUST BE PUNISHED (We were attacked at least twenty times over the past couple of decades)
Meanwhile the overlords of peace at the United Nation supervised at least a half dozen episodes of Genocide throughout the world --and continue to do so with a nonchalance that continues to amaze me---Dante reserved the lowest circle in hell for the likes of Carfree Anon and Co.

Agreed - sort of. Pacifism is not an effective response to aggression. Nor was it the dominant viewpoint immediately following 9/11. There was a groundswell of support for the action against Afganistan and the Taliban both within the US and globally. But...

Question: When did Iraq attack the United States?

A more important question is: Have the current policies of pre-emptive stikes against Iraq and other Arab/Muslim countries advanced the cause of the US?

Does the worldwide increase in Muslim hatred toward the US make you safer?

Do crumbling global allegiances make you safer?

Do huge deficits as a result of spending in Iraq and vastly higher oil prices make you safer?

Does a military stretched to its limits and the threat of a draft make you safer?

Does the Patriot Act and the trampling of personal freedoms make you safer?

Does the concentration of power in the hands of the neocon ideological zealots make you safer?


The larger philosophy of pacifism is not the issue here. This is a new kind of threat to the US. We can't line up our forces and win a battle against the terrorists. This new war is about the hearts and minds of the Muslim world. The current policies of aggression, pre-emptive stikes, and occupying foreign lands is the surest way to lose this war as I can think of.

A definition of insanity: Repeating the same action again and again, and expecting a different result each time.

Sound anything like "Stay the course"? Our leaders are insane.
When the last living thing has died on account of us, how poetical it would be if Earth could say, in a voice floating up perhaps from the floor of the Grand Canyon, “It is done.” People did not like it here.

- Kurt Vonnegut

#15 Guest_bullseatshitndie_*

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Posted 04 October 2004 - 08:59 AM

Who will be attacked first for their bullish statements?

:unsure:

exactly.
it's over bears, it's that simple. bullish breakouts all indices. but as everyday, some bearish astronomy shit is lining up :ph34r: NOT





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