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B4 The Bell Tuezelday Sptember 28


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#16 flockofsheeples

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:46 AM

siiiiiiiiiiilver and gold, siiiiiiiiiiiiilver and gold. :o
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#17 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:46 AM

IMO opinion as long as the $US remains the reserve currency a "devaluation" at this point in time is not realistically going to happen.  Everyone will jawbone that it is necessary, but who will be the first to fall on the sword and start the dollar "sale" forcing the value of their currency up and seriously damaging their exporters?

The movement away from the dollar as a reserve currency will accelerate. The US$ is already down more than 20% in the last few years on the commonly used dollar index. Another 20% drop is a reasonable expectation if it occurs slowly over time.

Yes an overnight 20% drop would have very adverse consequences throughout the world. But it is not impossible that a drop that big could occur even within one month under the right circumstances anyway.

The nature of inflation is to reduce purchasing power of everyone. The fact that someone does not get a raise while inflation moves up just means that purchasing power is dropping fast - such as when a recession starts.

And so as their purchasing power drops without any savings and little debt accumulation ability left (and dropping fast as short IR's rise) what happens to producers volumes? And then their prices as volumes drop?

I don't disagree with your statements. I think where I do disagree is how fast things are going to change. If I'm reading you right, you're saying we will have a noticeable but not unsustainable rise in prices. IMO we are at or near a tipping point where changes will begin occuring very rapidly and that further price increases will only cause an acceleration of the total unwinding of the US economy which will take the rest of the world with it. The rubber band is old and tired it has been stretched to the point that serious cracks are exposed in the outer layers. Further stretching will only lead to breakage with unknown full consequences revealing themselves very quickly.

Roach has a few thoughts worth reviewing.

The world economy is on a collision course. The United States -- long the main engine of global growth and finance -- has squandered its domestic saving and is now drawing freely on the rest of the world’s saving pool. East Asian central banks -- especially those in Japan and China -- have become America’s financiers of last resort. But in doing so, they are subjecting their own economies to mounting strains and increasingly serious risk. Breaking points are always tough to pinpoint with any precision. Most serious students of international finance know that these trends are unsustainable. But like any trend that has gone to excess, a group of “new paradigmers” has emerged with a compelling argument as to why these imbalances can persist in perpetuity. That is usually the sign that the denial is about to crack -- possibly sooner rather than later.

Collision Course

#18 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:51 AM

And...right on schedule...the Saudis have once again proclaimed that they will "INCREASE PRODUCTION" - which I think represents about the fifth such proclamation since they procalimed that they had opened the spigots to pump at full capacity about three months ago. Needless to say, the SPR Release didn't work, and the Saudis now have no credibility with respect to the price of oil either. GAMEOVERVILLE with respect to Open Mouth operations. The price of oil is no longer under control, and the stage has been set for a military intervention in Nigeria.

Saudi crude is sour (high-sulfur). The refinery capacity for sour crude is completely utilized, so no additional supply can be absorbed. It doesn't matter what the Saudis can or cannot pump at this point, there is nowhere for the oil to go.

#19 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:56 AM

Last week Electrolux, the largest maker of household appliances, warned that rising raw material prices would add SKr1.2bn ($163m) to costs in the second half of this year. The announcement hammered the Swedish group's shares because it said the relentless competition in the white goods industry meant it could not pass the price rises on to customers.

If the full effect of the increases is eventually passed on to vehicle manufacturers, it will more than wipe out profits at all three domestic US carmakers. Adam Jonas, motor industry anal cyst at Morgan Stanley, said the impact on carmakers had been slight but would worsen if raw material prices stayed high.

“Contract renegotiations are happening as the year comes to a close so a portion of their purchasing budget is going to be at a higher rate,” he said. “Over time it is a steady headwind.”



As the Paris show kicks off a difficult round of negotiations with suppliers about next year's component prices, carmakers should be worried that raising prices without deterring customers will be as difficult as pushing up the price of a fridge.

High costs put motor industry on road to ruin

#20 HiHat

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:02 AM

Hi.........everybody.........am on-line very briefly as i'm on a laptop battery
with no way to re-charge

Weathered Hurricane with minor flooding...trees came down...the telephone
lines are restored........but.........swaying poles on my road blew up all
the transformers.......so i have no clue when electric power will be back.

Have no water........air.....refrig........etcetcetc etc.

Good Luck and best wishes to ALL.

#21

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:10 AM

Hang in there Hi Hat and The Sun! Sorry to hear you took a hit.

#22

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:11 AM

MH:

You prediction of $50 oil tied to the moon phase was rather remarkable!

Attaboy!

What's Next?

#23 microdon

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:14 AM

And...right on schedule...the Saudis have once again proclaimed that they will "INCREASE PRODUCTION" - which I think represents about the fifth such proclamation since they procalimed that they had opened the spigots to pump at full capacity about three months ago.  Needless to say, the SPR Release didn't work, and the Saudis now have no credibility with respect to the price of oil either.  GAMEOVERVILLE with respect to Open Mouth operations.  The price of oil is no longer under control, and the stage has been set for a military intervention in Nigeria.

Saudi crude is sour (high-sulfur). The refinery capacity for sour crude is completely utilized, so no additional supply can be absorbed. It doesn't matter what the Saudis can or cannot pump at this point, there is nowhere for the oil to go.

Saudis indicated they would be pumping light crude, for which an oil anal cyst on Crapvision expressed considerable skepticism. That oil did not retreat under $50 a barrel immediately after the news suggests oil traders have become jaded by these remarks. The Nigerian situation, which does involve sweet crude, is far more serious if Civil War breaks out and impacts production.

#24 Bearman

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:18 AM

Don't worry about Bearman :P

Less goverment! more guns Got generator,chainsaw,fuel

The American way!

If you live in large urban area get out while you can :o

Big goverment is going down along with all the giveaways.

The Big Harvest is coming :ph34r:

#25 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:19 AM

Anyone know if NVR on Amex is putable?
TIA
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#26 brian4

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:25 AM

LLD- my two favorites to short in the sector are CTX and RYL!. Hi-Hat and Sun you are in one piece that is what counts. window at the bell for 40 minutes- it looks up at the open! ;)

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:30 AM

CREDIBILTY:

Everyday, in every way, intelligent individuals, one at a time, are awakening to the fact that formerly credible sources of information are becoming "incredible."

The Fed Chairman, The Saudis, The President, Putin, The CIA, CEOs, Politicians, News Media, etc. all have less credibility, among more people, everyday.

Professional Traders can now clearly see that lies have been told, and are being told on a daily basis, all in an attempt to save what had previously been described as a robust and expanding recovery with a growing jobs base and the anticipation of lower oil prices. They see the truth now, and they are disillusioned. They are no longer reacting to the lies. The measure by which this POR can be gauged is the price movement in a given stock or commodity following a lie. WMT upgraded yesterday, and closed down on the day. SPR makes oil available to drive the price down, and the price goes up, "things are improving in Iraq"...etc. More lies = more apparent desparation.

The power of the media is no longer working to their advantage. Being able to get your message out in order to manipulate the markets is only half the battle. Once your credibility is lost, and participants understand the agenda, your lies are no longer effective.

A crisis of credibility is at hand.

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#28 DrStool

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:32 AM

Third Rail updated.

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#29 flockofsheeples

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:34 AM

Anyone know if NVR on Amex is putable?
TIA

no options on nvr.
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#30 brian4

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 09:38 AM

Top should be in looks like a run at the shorts, a gap and a crap. ;)





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