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B4 The Bell Tuezelday Sptember 28


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#1 thesun

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 06:13 AM

Can four Hurricanes in FL be viewed as a TWISTER to the economy?

"Federated Department Stores Inc. lowered its estimates for September same-store sales by about $10 million, and third-quarter earnings by an additional 1 to 2 cents a share because of Hurricane Jeanne."

http://money.iwon.co...ias/money/cm/nw


"Insurers are expected to take a $15 billion to $20 billion hit from the four hurricanes that have hit Florida in the last month and their third-quarter profits will show it, dropping an estimated 40 to 60 percent, experts say."

http://money.iwon.co...ias/money/cm/nw

Crude oil topped $50 per barrel during Asian trading on Tuesday, pushing past the psychological milestone for the first time then surging further to new record levels likely to unsettle oil-consuming nations.

"Traders bid oil to new highs in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in a reaction to the slow recovery of U.S. oil production that was damaged by Hurricane Ivan and unrest in key producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria."

http://money.iwon.co...ias/money/cm/nw

The TECO Tampa fuel terminal was damaged by Hurricane Jeanne makeing it harder to get fuel into FL. I-10 is damaged making it hard to get fuel in from the west. The flow of fuel into FL is going to take more energy to get it in and it will force other sections of the Southeast to pay more for the fuel.

"WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 350,000 last week, largely because of powerful hurricanes that have walloped Florida and the Gulf Coast, the Labor Department reported Thursday"

http://custom.market...A-AFD06C9906FF}

As earnings start to come in for September, the word hurricane will be showing up in more and more warnings.

The world is great for those in PM, Silver crossed $6.60, gold crossed $410.50 overnight.

thesun has returned to Arcadia, FL to see that he picked up some damage. Ahhhh :cry:

#2 Hiding Bear

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 07:05 AM

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What China thinks about the US$ is, well, what many B4 forum members think:

Many international institutions and renowned scholars have recently warned that the possibility of a US dollar slump is increasing and may even lead to a new round of "US dollar crisis."

Since China holds huge amounts of US-dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, the authorities should consider taking prompt measures to ward off possible risks.

It is still too early to conclude if the US dollar is heading towards a crisis. But it is an indisputable fact that it has gone down continually. Its rate against the euro, for example, has dropped by 40 per cent since its peak period and it lost 20 per cent of its value against the euro last year alone.

It is becoming more and more evident that the possibility of a further slump of the US dollar is increasing.


http://www.chinadail...tent_378317.htm

The credit bubble starts its implosion:

Among the ways to increase capital, according to Mike DeStefano, the Fannie Mae anal cyst at Standard & Poor's, is to sell new common or preferred stock, slow or stop stock buybacks, and slow the growth of the business by reducing the amount of home mortgages Fannie Mae buys. Some of its store of mortgages could actually be sold, Mr. DeStefano said, to reduce the amount of capital that has to be raised.

All this adds up to "managing their balance sheet more," Mr. DeStefano said, and that means "they will grow less or not at all," probably causing earnings to fall.

One money manager, who insisted on not being identified because he is regularly involved in the buying and selling of Fannie Mae debt, suggested that Fannie Mae's effort to regain investor confidence by raising its capital could eventually put some upward pressure on Treasury interest rates.

If Fannie Mae sells mortgages as a way of lowering the amount of capital it has to raise, many dealers in the mortgage market, this money manager said, would respond by selling Treasury securities to hedge against losses. Such selling was not evident yesterday as Treasury prices rose and yields, which move in the opposite direction, fell.


http://www.nytimes.c...ess/28bond.html

Silver - Stage I boosters launched:

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#3

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 07:33 AM

CNBS on-screen oil price bug is now titled: "OIL ALERT" with the price over $50.

Welcome to the full moon!

And...right on schedule...the Saudis have once again proclaimed that they will "INCREASE PRODUCTION" - which I think represents about the fifth such proclamation since they procalimed that they had opened the spigots to pump at full capacity about three months ago. Needless to say, the SPR Release didn't work, and the Saudis now have no credibility with respect to the price of oil either. GAMEOVERVILLE with respect to Open Mouth operations. The price of oil is no longer under control, and the stage has been set for a military intervention in Nigeria.

Mayhem, anyone?


12:03pm (UK)
Saudis to Boost Oil Production.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, will raise production from 9.5 million barrels a day to 11 million barrels.

An Oil Ministry official said the increase would go into effect within weeks. No further details were provided.

The move came as oil prices hit 50 US dollars a barrel for the first time today and rebels in Nigeria’s oil rich Niger delta threatened all out war.

http://news.scotsman....cfm?id=3555744



Check out the squeeze action in FRE yesterday (pump & dump):

http://139.142.147.2...NX&ref_rate=180


...and watch what the Ten Year Yield does today (intraday double bottom?):

http://139.142.147.2...refreshrate=180


And keep in mind that Mount St. Helens is rumbling:

Rumblings observed from Mount St. Helens, scientists warn
Last Updated Mon, 27 Sep 2004 21:40:47 EDT

VANCOUVER - Seismologists are trying to figure out if Mount St. Helens in Washington State is set to blow, nearly 25 years after its massive eruption killed 57 people.

http://www.cbc.ca/st...lens040927.html


...and contemplate the ramifications if this portends seismic activity for california...and then contemplate what this NCEN chart might look like if the Ten Year Yield rises in concert with a St. Helens eruption or worse:

http://139.142.147.2...NX&ref_rate=180


The PPT has their work cut out for them today.

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 07:38 AM

Gold up $2.70


Viewing the US from the world's perspective, drought, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes impacting the US could certainly be viewed as the result of bad karma.

#5 EddieBear

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 07:46 AM

"Insurers are expected to take a $15 billion to $20 billion hit from the four hurricanes that have hit Florida in the last month and their third-quarter profits will show it, dropping an estimated 40 to 60 percent, experts say."

Resulting in increased demands for "tort reform".

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 07:49 AM

want to see what it looks like when somebody meant to enter a buy order at $48.50 and accidentally places the order at $485.00?

http://139.142.147.2...NX&ref_rate=180

ouch!

#7 The Mad Hungarian

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 07:51 AM

CNBS on-screen oil price bug is now titled: "OIL ALERT" with the price over $50.

Welcome to the full moon!

And...right on schedule...the Saudis have once again proclaimed that they will "INCREASE PRODUCTION" - which I think represents about the fifth such proclamation since they procalimed that they had opened the spigots to pump at full capacity about three months ago. Needless to say, the SPR Release didn't work, and the Saudis now have no credibility with respect to the price of oil either. GAMEOVERVILLE with respect to Open Mouth operations. The price of oil is no longer under control, and the stage has been set for a military intervention in Nigeria.

Mayhem, anyone?


12:03pm (UK)
Saudis to Boost Oil Production.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, will raise production from 9.5 million barrels a day to 11 million barrels.

An Oil Ministry official said the increase would go into effect within weeks. No further details were provided.

The move came as oil prices hit 50 US dollars a barrel for the first time today and rebels in Nigeria’s oil rich Niger delta threatened all out war.

http://news.scotsman....cfm?id=3555744



Check out the squeeze action in FRE yesterday (pump & dump):

http://139.142.147.2...NX&ref_rate=180


...and watch what the Ten Year Yield does today (intraday double bottom?):

http://139.142.147.2...refreshrate=180


And keep in mind that Mount St. Helens is rumbling:

Rumblings observed from Mount St. Helens, scientists warn
Last Updated Mon, 27 Sep 2004 21:40:47 EDT

VANCOUVER - Seismologists are trying to figure out if Mount St. Helens in Washington State is set to blow, nearly 25 years after its massive eruption killed 57 people.

http://www.cbc.ca/st...lens040927.html


...and contemplate the ramifications if this portends seismic activity for california...and then contemplate what this NCEN chart might look like if the Ten Year Yield rises in concert with a St. Helens eruption or worse:

http://139.142.147.2...NX&ref_rate=180


The PPT has their work cut out for them today.

Plunger,
Paraphrasing Jerry Magiure, it's "SHOW ME THE OIL" time for the Saudis!
You are right, this must be the 5th time they have announced the same 1 million barrel per day increase in output, although I did notice they qualified it by saying the extra flow would begin in "several weeks". Right. ;)

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:07 AM

"Attack of the Killer Mushroom?"

http://news.bbc.co.u...ope/3692136.stm

#9 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:10 AM

All who watched their silver 6.50 or gold 410 calls go up in smoke yesterday must be just a little pissed this morning.
The manipulation of the metals will prove as fruitless as the Saudis comical production claims.

Crapvision continues to keep the sheeple off guard exploring the merits of exotic auto "investing" So many signs of a top.
0300 jam on sched. You would think they would mix it up a bit. The predictability of these 990n type actions has become staggering.

FNM and OIL will halt the disconnect. Im on full crash alert.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#10 DrStool

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:13 AM

Must Move Now

Time Running Out

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#11 machinehead

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:16 AM

Plunger,
Paraphrasing Jerry Magiure, it's "SHOW ME THE OIL" time for the Saudis!
You are right, this must be the 5th time they have announced the same 1 million barrel per day increase in output, although I did notice they qualified it by saying the extra flow would begin in "several weeks". Right. ;)

These repeated announcements are a wonderful thing for crude traders.

Crude's ability to rally despite "millions of barrels" of production increases and SPR releases proves that the supply shortage is real and deep-seated.

Yesterday I was toying with the idea of selling some of my Dec. 2005 crude futures. But since they promised ONCE AGAIN to increase production, I decided to hold fast. "Ye got nothin' but crap cards," I tell the Saudis in this long-running poker game.

The full moon occurs at 9:09 a.m. eastern, less than an hour from now. ;)
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
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#12 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:16 AM

It will be interesting to see just who gets to be the fall guy in the G7 plan to "devalue" the dollar by 20%. I imagine there will be a great deal of fighting to see who gets to fall on their sword. Devaluation of a currency on a commodity based standard is easy.

Yesterday one ounce of silver bought you $10. Today one ounce of silver buys you $12.50. See easy - a simple announcement. All of the other commodity based currencies remain virtually unaffected. Yesterday an ounce of silver bought you 1000 Yen or $10. Today one ounce of silver buys you 1000 Yen or $12.50.

Now try it in an all fiat world. Yesterday $10 bought you 1000 Yen. Today $10 buys you 800 Yen. That 500 billion in $US bonds you're sitting on becomes worth 400 billion just on the currency basis and quite likely you would also suffer compounding losses as the dollar value of the bond also loses ground (IR rises). If we went on simple percentage losses to adjust for the currency you might expect the yield on the 10 year to rise to near 5% from the current 4%. So here you are, Bank X of Japan sitting on a 20%-40% loss in your dollar based assets, depending on their form, and to add insult to injury your domestic export borrowers are suffering mightily because of their inability to either raise export prices (competitive pressures stemming from China or inability of the export market to absorb higher prices) or their export volume declines due to their attempt to force through higher export prices.

Of course with the Chinese pegged to the dollar, whatever happens to us, happens to them. Everything they import will also climb in price and those imported materials that are the base for their export products would force the cost of the manufactured goods up somewhat meaning your export products would either have to be repriced higher or you absorb the loss. Oil becomes particularly thorny for the Chinese; or for anyone pegged to the dollar for that matter. If it becomes a serious problem, do the Chinese let the yuan float and damage their export income? Where is that line in the sand?

I doubt if the Asian countries are in favor of a dollar devaluation. What about Europe? While there are no doubt substantial holdings of $US based assets, they are not in nearly as deep as the Asians. In theory oil priced in Euros would remain about the same, as would most imported commodities. Exports to the US however become more of a problem as do exports to those that export to us. And that's Euroland's soft underbelly which has already been exposed previously when the aloof elite declared that the US economy's problems wouldn't affect Europe. So no free ride for Euroland either.

If the US economy had begun to produce wage inflation or had even begun to produce jobs at par per capita income, all of this might be possible. And there's the rub. The entire global economy hinges on how much the American consumer can consume. After more than a decade of outright gluttony and borrowing to absorb everything the world can produce, the American consumer does not have the ability to consume more or even consume the same amount at higher prices as their $US incomes are falling both nominally and in real terms.

No matter how much the fed pumps, the one thing it cannot do is create a rise in incomes at at time when jobs are being shifted overseas as fast as they can hook up a modem or containerize production equipment. The American economy has been gutted (Thanks Nafta and "Free" Trade!) and reduced to a service economy which is rapidly being outsourced to the low cost providers leaving only consumers servicing other consumers.

Do you really think in the real world the American economy will be allowed to do nothing but consume? Will the planet let us be Rome with everyone paying us tribute? Do we sell "protection" mafia style? When do we lose the ability to even produce the goods necessary to provide that "protection"? The fact that the US military went to China to buy berets should have been a good clue. We have already lost the ability to produce the full compliment of goods necessary for providing "protection". Do you think there are foreign powers fully aware of that?

So who benefits in a devaluation? First and foremost the US government. It gets to pay back all of those loans (when pigs are flying) and the interest on those loans with cheaper dollars. I'm sure the bagholders will be thrilled with that. To a lesser degree would be our remaining domestic producers with the auto industry standing first in line at the trough. Since a new Toyota or a new Mercedes will csot more it would stand to follow that the price of a new Impala would be going up. The reality of the situation is due to loss making rebates and incentives they have pulled forward years of production so demand at any price is currently waning as well as the simple fact that consumers ability to pay any higher prices is highly doubtful at best.

IMO opinion as long as the $US remains the reserve currency a "devaluation" at this point in time is not realistically going to happen. Everyone will jawbone that it is necessary, but who will be the first to fall on the sword and start the dollar "sale" forcing the value of their currency up and seriously damaging their exporters?

#13 Hiding Bear

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:19 AM

Must Move Now

Time Running Out

Looks like it listened to you! :D

#14 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:29 AM

Im going shopping for homebuilder puts this morning.
Anyone out there done any due dilligence on the builders?
Would really appreciate ideas on the most overvalued accident prone builder I can further investigate..
I will not be stingy paying for time.
TIA
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#15 Hiding Bear

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:31 AM

IMO opinion as long as the $US remains the reserve currency a "devaluation" at this point in time is not realistically going to happen. Everyone will jawbone that it is necessary, but who will be the first to fall on the sword and start the dollar "sale" forcing the value of their currency up and seriously damaging their exporters?

The movement away from the dollar as a reserve currency will accelerate. The US$ is already down more than 20% in the last few years on the commonly used dollar index. Another 20% drop is a reasonable expectation if it occurs slowly over time.

Yes an overnight 20% drop would have very adverse consequences throughout the world. But it is not impossible that a drop that big could occur even within one month under the right circumstances anyway.

The nature of inflation is to reduce purchasing power of everyone. The fact that someone does not get a raise while inflation moves up just means that purchasing power is dropping fast - such as when a recession starts.





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